Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble • Hacker News Board

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#121

Post by ur-whale » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 5:46 AM UTC

graeme wrote: post #105

trixie_ wrote: post #76

Transferring money through banks is such a pain in the ass versus crypto. It really feels like we’re at a tipping point where ACH and wire transfers become the equivalent of writing a check.

Are you american? You have a pretty garbage bank transfer system. Europe’s transfer usability matches or beat’s cryptos for transfers within the system. I’m Canadian. I just tried transferring my free Coinbase crypto to another wallet to withdraw and the process was slower than had I done a transfer between my two bank accounts. And much more fraught!

> I just tried transferring my free Coinbase

That's not a wallet to wallet crypto transfer.

That's a Coinbase transfer.

Coinbase is awful as are the majority of other onramps.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#122

Post by H8crilA » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 5:47 AM UTC

ur-whale wrote: post #94

H8crilA wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, what is it if not a worse gold? All assets can be roughly divided into few categories: currency, debt, equity, derivatives/bets, collectibles. It's not an equity or debt instrument, it's not a derivative, and it's not a currency as nobody settles transactions in it. It's a collectible (like gold or paintings), with a short history (unlike gold), that delivers zero value for the holder in the meantime (unlike…

> All assets can be roughly divided into few categories: currency, debt, equity, derivatives/bets, collectibles. Says who? Your Econ. 101 book? You flippantly decide that no new class of asset can ever come into being and decide to present it as one of the fundamental laws of nature?

Essentially, yes, except that: 1) this is a rough categorization, there's a lot of things out there that do not fit into any single one of the categories (a convertible bond is debt, equity, derivative? a little bit of all), 2) there could be something genuinely new, outside of all the previously known categories, but it hasn't appeared so far in thousands of years (yes, I mean thousands).

Also see this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8iNeXCAM_Ik

Just to be clear: bitcoin (or some other existing or future crypto) could become for example a currency one day. But it clearly isn't one now.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#123

Post by tablespoon » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 5:48 AM UTC

wickoff wrote: post #83

stickyricky wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How? You can't see if I own any NFTs right now. You can't see it in gmail. You can't see it on facebook. You don't get ads saying "rich NFT holders in your area!". No one knows or cares if you own an NFT.

Twitter is adding ownership verification for NFT profile pictures.

> Twitter is adding ownership verification for NFT profile pictures.

Then what if someone mints new NFTs based on (say) the same images used for the cryptopunks cartoons?

You could get your extremely online bragging rights for an affordable price.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#124

Post by chillacy » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 5:48 AM UTC

alpha_squared wrote: post #56

paxys wrote: post #51

Michael Burry was also famously (and vocally) short TSLA for many years until he finally folded and closed his positions recently. I'm not crazy bullish on crypto myself, but it is pointless to hold the opinion of a few analysts/fund managers above the rest just because they made some good bets in the past. The one thing that the market has shown is that no one knows which way any security will go tomorrow – not Buff…

I don't think that's a sign of Burry being wrong, it very well could mean he couldn't stay solvent in that position longer than the irrationality of the market.

> irrationality of the market

The idea that the market can be irrational presumes some sort of external correctness, but it can become a circular definition: either Burry is right or the market is irrational, there is no space to say that he's wrong.

It's useful to remember that all models, including looking at fundamentals and value based investing, made to approximate reality, not reality itself.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#125

Post by ur-whale » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 5:50 AM UTC

roywiggins wrote: post #101

ur-whale wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Bitcoin does not shield you from capital gains taxes [0] or asset seizures since it's classified as property by the government. At least not in the US. It is my admittedly limited understanding of US tax law that - as long as you don't sell - you aren't getting taxed on gains (unrealized capital gains). Should you then decide to use your coins to directly buy - say - a house in Japan: since no actual Yen-denominated…

Purchases denominated in BTC are treated as realized gains or losses: > cryptocurrency users must deal with capital gains and losses in addition to whatever sales taxes they might face at the point of sale. > For example, let's imagine you bought $10 worth of Bitcoin two years ago and it has since appreciated to $100 in value. If you sold it on an exchange, you'd have $90 of realized long-term capital gains, just lik…

How does the "capital gain" get calculated if you directly barter Bitcoin for goods, say to buy a used car whose price was never listed?

[EDIT]: never mind someone answered this above with the whole doctrine of "fair market value".

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#126

Post by ur-whale » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 5:51 AM UTC

yardstick wrote: post #118

ur-whale wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Evading tax is a criminal matter I thought. In the US it is. Other, more humane jurisdictions view it as an infraction: if caught, you'll get fined, but you won't go to jail.

Such as? UK, NZ, CA, US, AU all at a quick check consider tax evasion a crime (not just a civil infraction).

> UK, NZ, CA, US, AU

You mean the anglo world?

Their laws all look the same. That doesn't make them moral or right.

To answer your question, I am not 100% certain, but I believe CH falls in the category I describe.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#127

Post by speedgoose » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 5:52 AM UTC

ur-whale wrote: post #113

speedgoose wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can't you sign a lot of time the same hash? Just use another initialization vector, salt, hashing algorithm, and you get a new nft.

One of the key aspect of blockchains is the fact that they're - by construction - timestamped.

But who cares? I mean outside of crypto enthousiast folks.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#128

Post by NhanH » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 5:52 AM UTC

ur-whale wrote: post #82

NhanH wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Expensive watches are supply limited (both by the brand’s intention and the availability of watchmakers). Besides, expensive watches look really pretty and shiny. NFT is not.

> Expensive watches are supply limited Exactly like NFTs. Not defending NTFt's just pointing out your argument isn't making much sense as presented.

The thing that is attached to NFTs is generally not supply limited though (in the sense that is much easier to create a digital thing, whether that is game item, art or some kind of record than a watch).

I can create some trillions digital bits, then mint trillions NFTs for each of them.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#129

Post by trophycase » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 5:53 AM UTC

xenihn wrote: post #22

cm2012 wrote: post #12

It has honestly surprised me that a bunch of people I thought were smart really think NFTs are a good long term investment. It clearly has no value beyond speculation and the bubble will pop.

The exact same thing happened with Ethereum (and crypto in general) in 2017. But look how much it's rebounded after that crash. I still don't think it's a good long term investment, but it's been an amazing way for some people to make life-changing money. Sadly, I'm not one of them.

It's a good investment dude. I'm not trying to shill or anything here but Ethereum is literally the "internet" of finance. It democratizes and brings access to basic financial building blocks like we've never before seen in history and truly anything can be built on it. Unironically it's the future of finance. Don't listen to the Luddites and cynics here. Do the research yourself and try it out for yourself and it becomes glaringly obvious.

Using defi is how I would imagine typing in a chatroom or accessing a website felt back when the web was just in its infancy.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#130

Post by bluecalm » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 5:56 AM UTC

boublepop wrote: post #95

pg_bot wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tether can temporarily keep the peg to $1 so long as a lot of people don't cash out at once. Given that they have cash reserves, they can buy back tethers that cost less than $1 themselves to keep the peg afloat. If they are legit, (lol) this would make great business sense since you are literally given a dollar and only have to pay back 99 cents. Everyone would love to be in the business of paying back loans for les…

> so long as a lot of people don't cash out at once A lot of people can’t cash out at once. Teather isn’t obligated to redeem to USD, it’s not just a scam (them not having backing), it’s just overall an absurd situation. “Give me your money and I’ll give you a note that says I have your money, and then I’ll never give you the money back, but perhaps you can exchange the note to others for money?”

It's not obligated to redeem your USDT but it is obligated to redeem it for its customers (exchanges mainly). At least on paper it works like this:

1)exchanges need Tether so they get it from the Tether inc. while depositing equal amount of USD with them

2)if they don't need some of it anymore they can redeem it

We know depositing USD part never happens. It's likely some shady paper or more likely some promises are deposited instead.

It's also very likely they buy BTC with freshly printed Tether (not directly but through some of their other entities) causing constant buying pressure for BTC and other cryptocurrencies. This may just work if enough people FOMO into crypto seeing the skyrocketing price as then the gang can sell their BTC for real USD.