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WHO inquiry chief 'had concerns' about lab close to first Covid cases

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Re: WHO inquiry chief 'had concerns' about lab close to first Covid cases

#121

Post by JPKab »

mike00632 wrote: post #107
siva7 wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Again, this writeup is more about the bioengineering hypothesis while embarak states another theory. in it‘s current state the term lab leak has almost become meaningless

That's the problem with these conspiracy theories, though, right? They are unfalsifiable by design. A scientific hypothesis would be testable. For example, "Did the COVID-19 virus come from a lab?" would be falsifiable if the COVID-19 virus didn't share the base genetic sequence of typical viruses tested in a lab. Lo and behold, the COVID-19 virus doesn't have the genetic signature of viruses in labs. Therefore the c…

There is currently zero evidence to support a zoonotic origin.

It took 9 months to find the source of MERS (camels). It took 14 months to find the origin of SARS1 (bats).

What evidence do you have that this was transmitted from an animal carrier? What mammal in China (it's not like there are that many mammal species living in the Wuhan metropolitan area) has been identified that easily catches COVID? The answer is zero.

The most likely explanation for this, which fits with all the other circumstantial data, is that the zoonotic origin was a genetically engineered mouse with human ACE2 receptors lining it's lungs. Note that I'm saying the mouse was genetically engineered, not the virus itself. The virus could easily evolve to infect humans by repeatedly exposing the humanized mice to the original, completely natural origin bat viruses.

Calling out "mental gymnastics" when you are acting as if it's a pure coincidence that a bat virus pandemic originated in a city containing the world's leading bat-borne virus research facility is the height of hypocrisy and cognitive dissonance. And before you say that the lab is in Wuhan because that's where the viruses are, no, it's not. The viruses historically have emerged in Yunnan province, in remote caves 1000 KM away from Wuhan.

Re: WHO inquiry chief 'had concerns' about lab close to first Covid cases

#122

Post by stvswn »

jcranberry wrote: post #101
tootie wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The best writeup I've seen is actually this twitter thread from the WNYC science reporter, Nsikan Akpan (himself a phd in biology). The gist being that while lab leak is still possible, it's very unlikely and it's also likely we'll never find a smoking gun for any hypothesis. https://twitter.com/MoNscience/status/1396240581651742724

The New Yorker had an article in the discussion and interviewed two scientists, Stanford microbiologist David Relman and UNC virologist Ralph Baric, who signed the letter to WHO which was published in Science magazine. https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-inquiry/the-sudden-... The two scientists seemed to think that although a lab leak origin is possible the natural origin story is more likely.

I know it won't be a popular opinion here, but I am not sure I trust the judgment of scientists with conflicts of interest.

It would be human nature for those who were involved in lobbying for gain-of-function research to continue are now unwilling to entertain the idea that something as devastating as COVID was a result of such research. If that is true, it means that they were disasterously wrong in their earlier stance and it means that there will be no appetite to continue funding their field of expertise.

I'm tired of being told not to believe what's clearly in front of me -- a coordinated campaign in China to cover up any inquiry in to the origins of the virus accompanied by very suspicious behavior in China in the months before they were supposed to have been aware of the outbreak.

Whether COVID-19 itself is exactly a product of research at the WIV funded by EcoHealth Alliance and the NIAID, I don't know, but I can read those grant requests myself and see that they clearly refer to manipulating coronaviruses so that they better infect humanized mice cells. This is a study that Fauci insists is not gain of function research, but I'm unclear as to the distinction. I suspect that they played with language in these requests so as to be able to avoid triggering the legally-required review.

Fauci, and others, are potentially aware that the pandemic could have stemmed from research that they themselves fast-tracked around the legally mandated review process, making them partially culpable in millions of deaths worldwide -- it would be incredibly difficult in that situation to start looking critically at the possibility that it's true.

We should be very careful about trusting experts with a lot at stake in the answer to the question.

Re: WHO inquiry chief 'had concerns' about lab close to first Covid cases

#124

Post by MMS21 »

temp8964 wrote: post #36
underseacables wrote: post #2

If I post this to Facebook, or Twitter, what are the chances it will get taken down, or moderated?

Or shadowbanned so that you wouldn’t even notice.

If this is a jab at how other sites are ran you should look into HN and hellbanning.

Re: WHO inquiry chief 'had concerns' about lab close to first Covid cases

#125

Post by stvswn »

JPKab wrote: post #108
jcranberry wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The New Yorker had an article in the discussion and interviewed two scientists, Stanford microbiologist David Relman and UNC virologist Ralph Baric, who signed the letter to WHO which was published in Science magazine. https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-inquiry/the-sudden-... The two scientists seemed to think that although a lab leak origin is possible the natural origin story is more likely.

Again, there is no identifiable difference between a virus harvested from guano in a cave that later leaks from a lab sample and the same virus if transmitted to a human. Nobody is saying this virus was engineered in this thread. It appears to me to be a deliberate psychological trick of lumping people who claim the virus leaked from a lab (by far the most probable cause) with people who say the virus was an engineer…

Wait, you're still overgeneralizing.

There's the chance that it was a naturally occurring virus that wasd being stored in a lab (like RaTG13, it's closest known cousin). Then, there's the chance that it was manipulated in lab experiments by well-meaning scientists hoping to learn more about coronavirus transmission to humans (which I think is most likely, considering the behavior of the WIV, but far from certain). Finally, there's the chance that it was deliberately leaked as a bioweapon (doesn't make sense to me).

I totally agree that there are massive conflicts of interest, including the implication of being blacklisted from Chinese data sources for one's career and the chance that there simply won't be any funding in the future if the public believes that the research field itself is to blame.

Re: WHO inquiry chief 'had concerns' about lab close to first Covid cases

#126

Post by calibas »

So the best guess is that it came from wild bats, and there was a lab right next to the initial outbreak site that was studying wild bats. That could just be a coincidence, but it's a pretty remarkable coincidence and at the very least deserves further investigation.

It could have been just an innocent mistake. A researcher got the disease while collecting bats out in the wild, but the lab never got a sample of the disease. The researcher was asymptomatic and unknowingly spread it to another person while stopping by the local market on their way home. So as far as anybody can tell, it came from the marketplace.

I don't know what really happened, but I think I'm being more reasonable that most people about this. There's three other major lines of thinking, all politically motivated and all wrong in my opinion.

#1: Many of the Western "liberals", especially the media, dismissed any kind of "lab-leak theory" as right wing conspiracies for most of 2020. I honestly think just because Trump and the right were promoting it, the "liberals" were against it.

#2: The Western conservatives and Trump filled in all the blanks in the "lab-leak theories" with their own personal agendas. This turned sane and objective lab-leak theories into conspiracy theories. What the other lab in Wuhan was doing is interesting, but not necessarily connected.

#3: The Chinese government considers any lab-leak theories as anti-Chinese propaganda, and aggressively launches it's own counter-propaganda. In my opinion, the Chinese government doesn't want to know the truth, and the biggest and most racist anti-Chinese organization of them all is the Chinese government itself, based upon what's currently happening in HK and to the Uighurs, among other human rights issues.

I'm by no means against China, their government is just as hypocritical as the US, and both get in the way of any kind of truly objective and scientific approach to these issues. Seems like there's so much "noise", so much cognitive dissonance and emotional charge, that we're incapable of discussing these things sanely.

Re: WHO inquiry chief 'had concerns' about lab close to first Covid cases

#127

Post by trasz »

cm2187 wrote: post #106
shakezula wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Chinese didn't do anything that we wouldn't have done. In fact, they took better steps than we did, as far as the pandemic is concerned. Of course the dude had concerns, anyone with half a brain would explore all of the possible origins and theories. But the lab leak theory is just that - one theory that could explain the situation at hand. The problem is that too many people have put far too much stock in the la…

I'd like to think we don't put doctors in jail when they raise the alarm on a new virus.

You mean Li Wenliang, the doctor who was eventually decorated - by Chinese government - for speaking up? He was never put to jail. That’s another case of anti-Chinese propaganda for you.

Re: WHO inquiry chief 'had concerns' about lab close to first Covid cases

#128

Post by trasz »

iammisc wrote: post #120
shakezula wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, and I'd like to think we don't run scientific tests on black people without their knowledge or consent, but that doesn't line up either. If you think the U.S. is above unlawfully detaining a doctor, then I've got sad news for you.

Great argument... if the US did this, I'm sure no one would demand an investigation... /s

US did this many times. The investigations ended up like they usually do in US, starting from My Lai - in the best case they’ll find a single scapegoat and that’s it.

Re: WHO inquiry chief 'had concerns' about lab close to first Covid cases

#129

Post by j_walter »

calibas wrote: post #126

So the best guess is that it came from wild bats, and there was a lab right next to the initial outbreak site that was studying wild bats. That could just be a coincidence, but it's a pretty remarkable coincidence and at the very least deserves further investigation. It could have been just an innocent mistake. A researcher got the disease while collecting bats out in the wild, but the lab never got a sample of the d…

I think the fact that there are only two labs in China that study Coronaviruses...and the outbreak location is a few hundred yards from where one of the labs is...is enough of a coincidence that it should be THE theory that it somehow (leak of some sort) until proven otherwise.

Re: WHO inquiry chief 'had concerns' about lab close to first Covid cases

#130

Post by jerry1979 »

abakker wrote: post #117
shakezula wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is exactly what's so frustrating about the media treating the gain-of-function research they were doing as the "smoking gun" is so disingenuous. We were doing all of the same types of research, even cooperating with their government on some of it in our own labs IN CHINA, and then all of a sudden we turn around and blame them? Come on, people, you're playing right into what the propaganda says happened. They're…

Right, but the purpose of the narrative is not to compare whether we are doing the same thing. It is to blame China for the pandemic. TBH, if we did the same thing, I expect the rest of the world would blame us. That said, it seems pretty unproductive at this point to blame anyone, but it does seem productive to avoid it happening again.

Do we need to actually blame them, as such? Or is it more important to memorialize the mistake so we can learn from our history?
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