California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds • Hacker News Board

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#121

Post by rayiner » Fri, Jul 09, 2021, 1:06 AM UTC

haswell wrote: post #23

rayiner wrote: post #4

Careful framing of the purported “myth” is critical: > For one, while residents are moving out of state, they are not doing so at "unusual rates." Similarly, the research found no evidence of "millionaire flight" from California and notes that the state continues to attract as much venture capital as all other U.S. states combined, despite the recent exodus of Hewlett-Packard and Oracle. Who is saying California is u…

> Who is saying California is unattractive for rich people and venture capital? One potential source: this is a popular conservative talking point about the dangers of liberal government, and the "exodus" is often used as evidence to justify those talking points. "See, just look at California, they implemented , and everyone is leaving the state". This kind of viewpoint is rampant on places like /r/conservative, and…

The version of that argument I tend to see is more refined than that: https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2021/04/19/. National Review just had an entire issue on the subject.

The thrust of the argument is that what made California great was that it was a great place to move and raise kids in the suburbs with lots of opportunities. The changes in California are hitting those people the hardest. And those people are in fact leaving: https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/01/09/not-the-golden-state-...

The fact that California continues to be a great destination for young single engineers, venture capitalists, and H-1B workers for whom working at a California tech company is a ticket to staying in the US at all, isn’t responsive to that argument.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#122

Post by AmericanChopper » Fri, Jul 09, 2021, 1:07 AM UTC

solveit wrote: post #61

lostinquebec wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The election wins of Trump, Boris Johnson, Brexit and The Liberals in Australia show that data collection really matters. Similarly the financial crisis of 2009 shows that missing data can really matter. That's the key point of the quote: > There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it

I hate to call something gaslighting, but this is gaslighting of the highest order. I am not familiar with Australian politics, but the other three cases were textbook cases of the data saying one thing (Trump might win, BoJo will probably win, and Brexit might happen) and people refusing to believe it. How these get turned to make precisely the opposite point (Not just by you. It happens all the time) never ceases t…

What exactly is “the data” that we’re talking about? Is it the measurements that were made, and the methodology used to make them? Or is it the conclusion that something in this case is a “myth”? Because I’d suggest that only one of those things is “the data”, and the other one is a subjective interpretation of it. I’d also suggest that people who have an agenda to promote will often attempt to blur the line as much as possible between empirical measurements, and their own opinions about what they’re supposed to mean.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#123

Post by mbesto » Fri, Jul 09, 2021, 1:08 AM UTC

thebradbain wrote: post #111

mbesto wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's abundantly clear there is a lot of migration out of California. Just ask Texans, Coloradans, and Idahoans. Currently residing in Texas for 2.5 years now, moved from California. Yes, I anecdotally meet "a lot" of fellow NY/CA residents moving here. I also anecdotally have noticed that Whole Foods sells lots of local texan brewery beers. Are Texan local breweries on the rise in popularity or is it just that my p…

This is very funny to read, because I had the exact opposite journey as you. I love California so much that I buckled the popular media narrative and moved _from_ Texas _to_ California. Funnily enough, people talk about the California-to-Texas pipeline as if it's a new thing, but it's been an observed phenomenon since at least 2005, and it's a lot smaller than the media would have you think (usually net ~40k year lea…

Out of curiosity: what city in Texas to what city in California? I think that's another huge factor in all of this - both CA and TX have vastly varying degrees of cultures across its cities.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#124

Post by haswell » Fri, Jul 09, 2021, 1:11 AM UTC

chrisco255 wrote: post #117

haswell wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Who is saying California is unattractive for rich people and venture capital? One potential source: this is a popular conservative talking point about the dangers of liberal government, and the "exodus" is often used as evidence to justify those talking points. "See, just look at California, they implemented , and everyone is leaving the state". This kind of viewpoint is rampant on places like /r/conservative, and…

In a complex state with millions of people and perspectives, is it not possible that a large group of people from California do feel that way and do express those views when they move to other states?

I absolutely think that is possible. I’m sure a combination of factors plays into this.

My point was that when I’ve seen this come up, it’s almost always in the political context. That doesn’t exclude other possibilities, but does seem to be a major contributor to the “buzz” about this topic.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#125

Post by mensetmanusman » Fri, Jul 09, 2021, 1:13 AM UTC

solveit wrote: post #61

lostinquebec wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The election wins of Trump, Boris Johnson, Brexit and The Liberals in Australia show that data collection really matters. Similarly the financial crisis of 2009 shows that missing data can really matter. That's the key point of the quote: > There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it

I hate to call something gaslighting, but this is gaslighting of the highest order. I am not familiar with Australian politics, but the other three cases were textbook cases of the data saying one thing (Trump might win, BoJo will probably win, and Brexit might happen) and people refusing to believe it. How these get turned to make precisely the opposite point (Not just by you. It happens all the time) never ceases t…

There was data and then there was the NYT saying Hillary has a 99% chance. Ha

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#126

Post by rayiner » Fri, Jul 09, 2021, 1:14 AM UTC

deep-root wrote: post #44

A "back of the napkin" calculation seems to indicate there is no mass exodus. On mobile, but here is the typical annual CA pop change stats for the past decade, give or take: --Incoming-- - 400K domestic immigrants[1] - 180-200K international immigrants[2] - 450K births[4] Subtotal: ~1.1M --Outgoing-- - 600K domestic emigrants[1] - 250K deaths[4] - ?? intl emigrants (anyone know?) Subtotal: ~850K Typical annual net c…

I’m skeptical about counting international immigrants here. International immigration is a function of a very specific thing, in California’s case a measure of H1-B sponsor companies. If Indians come to California so they can get an H-1B from Facebook, but their kids them move to Tennessee because of poor quality of life in California, then that’s consistent with the “exodus” theory in my opinion.

I’m an immigrant from Bangladesh and quite a few people in my family moved to NYC. It has lots of support for people with limited English skills, lots of service jobs, etc. But they moved to Long Island as soon as they got their feet under them. It was a proud moment for them when they made the move!

I also wouldn’t count births or deaths. People don’t choose where they’re born. The exodus theory is generally supported by reference to “net internal migration.” (People coming from other states minus people moving to other states.) That’s really what illustrates people voting with their feet.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#127

Post by thebradbain » Fri, Jul 09, 2021, 1:15 AM UTC

mbesto wrote: post #123

thebradbain wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is very funny to read, because I had the exact opposite journey as you. I love California so much that I buckled the popular media narrative and moved _from_ Texas _to_ California. Funnily enough, people talk about the California-to-Texas pipeline as if it's a new thing, but it's been an observed phenomenon since at least 2005, and it's a lot smaller than the media would have you think (usually net ~40k year lea…

Out of curiosity: what city in Texas to what city in California? I think that's another huge factor in all of this - both CA and TX have vastly varying degrees of cultures across its cities.

Dallas to Los Angeles -- very similar in some regards, very different in others.

Funnily enough, I'd say Houston (which as a Dallasite I grew up bashing on, in the way SF does LA) is probably the most similar Texas city to Los Angeles.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#128

Post by michaelmrose » Fri, Jul 09, 2021, 1:15 AM UTC

ardit33 wrote: post #91

tomc1985 wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once you are out of the main coastal communities housing prices drop dramatically. I have friends in Eureka renting a gigantic house for like $1200/mo, and I saw studio apartments in the city center in the order of $750/mo. The SoCal equivalents would be $3500/mo-plus and $1500/mo-plus, respectively.

So Eureka Ca, which is in the middle of nowhere costs about the same as the suburbs of Raleigh NC. Raleigh has a mid level international airport with direct flights to Europe and other continents, has many other cities and great schools in it, and nearby (NC State, UNC Chapel Hill, Duke, etc), (the whole research triangle), etc... with plenty of job opportunities. What does Eureka have (appart for nice nature)? How m…

The people on the bottom 50% aren't taking international flights and proximity to international airport is honestly a worthless metric for 90% of the population.

In fact 500,000 of them without health insurance are looking encouragingly at a possible medicaid expansion 11 years after the ACA passed.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#129

Post by kylestlb » Fri, Jul 09, 2021, 1:21 AM UTC

calebm wrote: post #55

BitwiseFool wrote: post #6

"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it." - Jeff Bezos This is a tricky article because I can tell it's using the term 'exodus' and 'myth' differently than I would. It's abundantly clear there is a lot of migration out of California. Just ask Texans, Coloradans, and Idahoans.

Going out on a limb here, but sfgate.com might have some bias. It's easy for data to be measured incorrectly when there is an incentive to getting it wrong.

The study was done by various parts of the UC system, not sfgate. Results are compiled here: https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-studies...

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#130

Post by kbenson » Fri, Jul 09, 2021, 1:25 AM UTC

tomc1985 wrote: post #93

ardit33 wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So Eureka Ca, which is in the middle of nowhere costs about the same as the suburbs of Raleigh NC. Raleigh has a mid level international airport with direct flights to Europe and other continents, has many other cities and great schools in it, and nearby (NC State, UNC Chapel Hill, Duke, etc), (the whole research triangle), etc... with plenty of job opportunities. What does Eureka have (appart for nice nature)? How m…

I chose Eureka because I know people there and have direct experience with the town, even if it is an extreme example. If I knew folks and the housing situation in Stockton, or Modesto, or Bakersfield, or even Temecula, or any of those other armpit Central-Valley cities, I would have used them as an example. And you're right, maybe Raleigh is a better choice. Or maybe Minneapolis. Or perhaps Boise, or any number of o…

I think the point is that we should compare major metropolitan centers/coastal communities in CA to major metropolitan centers and coastal communities in other states. That there are places relatively cheaper in CA is not in question, but those cheaper places are likely similar to even cheaper places in other states.

The opportunities available in Eureka are not the same ones available in the Bay Area (although it's likely gotten better). I suspect they don't even stack up to Raleigh favorably. Eureka is much smaller than many bay area cities, and more importantly, is isolated, so it feels much smaller than even the ones that it is similarly sized to, as once you leave Eureka, you're not immediately entering another city of the same or larger size.