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What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

electionscience.github.io

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Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Condorcet methods do not require software to count up - you can easily replicate the results by hand on paper, it's just that there's such a lot to do it'll probably take you a while. In practice, you're going to want to count up electronically and then probably do a random sample by hand to check.

Right - you have to count up with software or it will take you a while. To me, it's a hard choice that cardinal systems don't force you to make.

Maybe. In most of the US aren't they moving to computerised counting even of the simple ballots currently in use?

Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Score voting does solve a lot of problems, you're right. Unfortunately it also introduces a ton of new ones, because while it's easy to compare ordinal preferences, there's no single good intuitive way to compare cardinal preferences. If you give voters a scale from 0 to 10, one person's 3 is another person's 5. It's not even remotely clear that one person's vote of 8 should count the same as two other people's vote…

> there's no single good intuitive way to compare cardinal preferences. What? You can literally rank them if you're confused. Better yet, rank them with unequal spacing (A:5, B:4, C:2). It is hard to take your claim seriously because it has been tested in real world settings. This isn't a theoretical proposition (and you're arguing over theory). Also did you really just say "logarithmic vs exponential?" The reality d…

> What? You can literally rank them if you're confused.

That's ordinal, not cardinal then. Your example "(A:5, B:4, C:2)" gives zero indication as to what 5 vs 4 means, or 4 vs 2, beyond simply being "greater than". That's the entire point.

> It is hard to take your claim seriously because it has been tested in real world settings.

I have no idea what that even means. Any voting system can be "tested". It doesn't mean it produces desirable results. The philosophies behind different voting methods aren't "testable". Political philosophy is philosophy because it isn't testable -- it's about what's desirable from some ethical viewpoint. E.g. we don't "test" majoritarian voting, we defend it from principles of equality.

> Also did you really just say "logarithmic vs exponential?"

Yes I did. y=2^x and y=log(x) have different shapes qualitatively. In other words, is voting 10 twice as strong as voting for 9, or only a teensy bit stronger? Not sure what's confusing you here, or what words you think would express that difference more clearly.

> You're claiming philosophers abandoned it and I don't see evidence for this.

It's just the basic history of utilitarianism or consequentialism. Any survey on that can point you in the right direction as to why cardinal preference have been largely abandoned.

(I'm obviously not talking about economics where "utility" is commonly measured in dollars. Most analyses of voting methods are concerned with what should be the "right" outcome, not the dollar-maximizing outcome. Social choice theory has been the attempt by economists to essentially measure votes in dollars, but even that still works almost entirely with ordinal preferences that are then analyzed in dollar outcomes.)

> Also I'm not sure why philosophers matter here, this isn't philosophy.

Voting methods are a huge part of political philosophy. Of course it is. It basically straddles political philosophy and political science in the literature. (Then there are some additional contributions by economists, especially when it gets deeper into the mathematics of it, mainly in social choice theory.)

> Cardinal methods are the preference of most researchers that study voting.

That's absolutely the opposite of my experience and knowledge. There are absolutely some people who study them, but they're absolutely not the focus of "most" researchers, at least not in the realm of political philosophy and political science. Voting with cardinal preferences is also barely used in real-world political governance.

Again, the fundamental problem with cardinal voting is simply that there's no intuitive, easily agreed-upon meaning for what cardinal values even mean. Most succinctly: on a 10-point scale, define the difference between a "4" and a "5", and argue why your definition is superior to 10 other definitions that are trivial to come up with. Also explain how you'll get voters to reliably understand and vote according to that same definition as well.

On the other hand, ordinal preferences are entirely intuitive and unambiguous to express and interpret. Which isn't to say they're perfect, but they give researchers something they can actually work with, both theoretically and practically.

Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#123
post #108

These results aren't passing the sniff-test for me. If I understand, "honest" voters in the score-like systems stick to some magically-shared mapping of their own utility to scores on the ballot (totally unreasonable, but let's grant it). Strategic voters, meanwhile, just use the ballots to maximize their own utility. Let's take the simplest, common scenario of two clear frontrunners. In score voting's one-sided stra…

I believe you are stating that Score0to2 one-sided strategy should measure worse than plurality one-sided strategy. I don't think this is an obvious claim. It seems to depend on the underlying distribution of candidate quality (especially correlations of preferences). I don't know what is up with 1-sided score vs 1-sided approval. That is an interesting observation you made and does look suspicious; we should expect…

> we should expect the distortion of power to be greater than the loss of honest expressiveness.

Intuitive expectations are not the same as empirical data.

> There is no "correct" model in voting theory.

Of course there is. The ideal would be a model that is exactly like real life.

> What does "honest" voting mean in cardinal contexts?

Normalization of sincere utilities.

> and the missing priors make its results partially meaningless.

Be specific. It just sounds like you don't understand how it was done.

Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#124
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe you are stating that Score0to2 one-sided strategy should measure worse than plurality one-sided strategy. I don't think this is an obvious claim. It seems to depend on the underlying distribution of candidate quality (especially correlations of preferences). I don't know what is up with 1-sided score vs 1-sided approval. That is an interesting observation you made and does look suspicious; we should expect…

> we should expect the distortion of power to be greater than the loss of honest expressiveness. Intuitive expectations are not the same as empirical data. > There is no "correct" model in voting theory. Of course there is. The ideal would be a model that is exactly like real life. > What does "honest" voting mean in cardinal contexts? Normalization of sincere utilities. > and the missing priors make its results part…

>Intuitive expectations are not the same as empirical data.

Sure, and I can't criticize the model with any certainty, or make my own firm claims, without doing modelling myself. But looking for concerns is fine. I can't say the model is wrong in this aspect even though it looks odd. However, I can think of alternative models which would definitely have the opposite result. (For example, squared distance as utility.)

>Of course there is. The ideal would be a model that is exactly like real life.

Practical considerations make this impossible. Validation of a model by comparing to reality only works for small subsets of voting theory at the moment, and weakly so. A complete model like this one has no hope. And if comparison to reality is the goal, I can already see gaps where it diverges from the best-known theory, by omission of features. So taste is important. I have my own preferences about what features are important, which others will disagree with. These preferences will be non-falsifiable for at least 50 years while we wait for experiments to catch up.

For example, I assume you mean affine scaling of utility into the [0, 1] range when you say "Normalization of sincere utilities". But we might add to each election a candidate whose goal is to nuke the country itself. His utility is massively negative for every voter. However, it isn't to my taste for this candidate's presence to distort "honest" votes; I'd rather there be some clamping at the ends. So even this "obvious" choice is not canonical.

>Be specific. It just sounds like you don't understand how it was done.

Yes, that's the problem. I shouldn't have to go through code to understand necessary things. An expert in the field should be able to follow along by reading the paper. Although, this is not a paper, so holding it up to that standard is unfair. But the gaps in what I can figure out make the results non-interpretable in some of the aspects I most care about.

I think one of the results you most care about, from the model, is that Approval measures better than ranked choice. I think that's still a fair conclusion to arrive at.

Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's kinda interesting about Election Science is how they've changed strategies. They used to push STAR till about a year ago and have since moved to approval voting. It seems they have found that approval is easier to sell to the average person and is still good enough. > Valuing clear and honest discussion about member preferences in voting systems This is a difficult thing tbh. A lot of people learn about voting…

You may be confusing CES with some other organization. I asked on CES's public discord: ranicki: someone on HN claimed that Center for Election Science switched from pushing STAR to pushing approval. is it true that this organization formerly supported STAR, or was it one of the other organizations? I don't remember who was advocating for what -redacted name-: Center for Election Science has broadly supported cardina…

> "From everything I can tell it still is supportive of cardinal methods broadly, but as a political tactic has honed in on approval voting specifically due to its Pareto optimality."

Hmmm... the notion of Pareto optimality is driving political tactics (about what voting method to back)? I know what it means, and it seems strange to me. This suggests that a specialized economic term was used as a motivation for a tactical political decision.

Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#126

It looks like it's a metric constructed to justify Range-ish voting systems, a la Warren Smith's Bayesian regret models. It performs the same core sleigh of hand: it takes a very simple view of strategic voting, assuming a fixed share of the electorate vote "strategically" regardless of election method, and making big assumptions about what's a good strategy. That is, to put it mildly, not a reasonable assumption. It…

VSI (or VSI) is just a different way of expressing regret. https://www.rangevoting.org/vsi > It looks like it's a metric constructed to justify Range-ish voting systems, a la Warren Smith's Bayesian regret models. Bayesian regret wasn't constructed to justify score voting (formerly known as range voting). Smith correctly used a utilitarian social welfare function, and just happened to find that score voting did best.…

And VSE, VSI, and Bayesian Regret are just reinventions of Social Utility Efficiency. SUE predates them all and has academic research behind it.

Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there's no single good intuitive way to compare cardinal preferences. What? You can literally rank them if you're confused. Better yet, rank them with unequal spacing (A:5, B:4, C:2). It is hard to take your claim seriously because it has been tested in real world settings. This isn't a theoretical proposition (and you're arguing over theory). Also did you really just say "logarithmic vs exponential?" The reality d…

> What? You can literally rank them if you're confused. That's ordinal, not cardinal then. Your example "(A:5, B:4, C:2)" gives zero indication as to what 5 vs 4 means , or 4 vs 2, beyond simply being "greater than". That's the entire point. > It is hard to take your claim seriously because it has been tested in real world settings. I have no idea what that even means. Any voting system can be "tested". It doesn't me…

Ordinal preferences are fundamentally wrong, because they arbitrarily assign equal weight to preferences that are not equal. For example, if I am indifferent between two candidates, and a ranked voting system forces me to choose one over the other (randomly), while you love one and hate the other, it is undemocratic for my weak preference to have the same weight as your strong preference. Such a system is less likely to find the most representative candidate than one which takes that strength of preference into account.

> Again, the fundamental problem with cardinal voting is simply that there's no intuitive, easily agreed-upon meaning for what cardinal values even mean.

Cardinal values are perfectly meaningful. They can be interpreted as expressions of ordinal preference for probabilities of different outcomes, for instance.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Von_Neumann%E2%80%93Morgenster...

For example, if I prefer Strawberry ice cream over Chocolate ice cream, and Chocolate ice cream over Garlic ice cream, and am given the choice between:

- A box that definitely contains Chocolate - A box that has a 50/50 chance of containing Strawberry or Garlic

I would choose the safe bet of Chocolate, because my preference for C>G is much stronger than my preference for S>C. By varying the probability and making the choice again, we can estimate the ratio of the strengths of my preferences between the three options.

Re: What Is Voter Satisfaction Efficiency?

#128
post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You may be confusing CES with some other organization. I asked on CES's public discord: ranicki: someone on HN claimed that Center for Election Science switched from pushing STAR to pushing approval. is it true that this organization formerly supported STAR, or was it one of the other organizations? I don't remember who was advocating for what -redacted name-: Center for Election Science has broadly supported cardina…

> "From everything I can tell it still is supportive of cardinal methods broadly, but as a political tactic has honed in on approval voting specifically due to its Pareto optimality." Hmmm... the notion of Pareto optimality is driving political tactics (about what voting method to back)? I know what it means, and it seems strange to me. This suggests that a specialized economic term was used as a motivation for a tac…

CES was originally a research-based organization, but recently shifted to advocating Approval Voting and trying to get it implemented. (I think they should rename as the Center for Approval Voting.)

Their forum and Google Group for discussion of voting systems were good resources, but are now being shut down

https://forum.electionscience.org/t/archiving-the-forum-july...

https://groups.google.com/g/electionscience

"This change reflects CES’s gradual evolution from an academic organization to an advocacy organization."

A volunteer-run forum has been created to replace it, but is pretty quiet so far.

https://www.votingtheory.org/

http://reddit.com/r/EndFPTP is also a good "non-partisan" resource, as well as https://electowiki.org/wiki/Main_Page

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