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Denmark to permanently cease using AstraZeneca vaccine

reuters.com

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Re: Denmark to permanently cease using AstraZeneca vaccine

#121

Post by ceejayoz »

kspacewalk2 wrote: post #117
RobertoG wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That argument doesn't make a lot of sense to me. It assumes that the numbers caused by the lock-downs are bigger than the numbers caused by Covid. It assumes that there is not positives to the lock-downs (maybe some people is less depressed at home than at their work, not deaths by flu, etc..) and, most important, it assumes that not lock-downs would not increase deaths by other causes (intensive care overworked).

The number of deaths due to missed TB vaccinations alone will be a very substantial percentage of number of COVID deaths.

Maybe, maybe not. TB should be readily stopped by masking and distancing measures; we might get something of a respite from it. I'm not aware of any numbers in either direction yet.

Re: Denmark to permanently cease using AstraZeneca vaccine

#122

Post by marvin »

kspacewalk2 wrote: post #111
joakleaf wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The 65+ group are to a large extend already vaccinated or have begun vaccinations with other vaccines in Denmark. The expected overall delay from not using AstraZeneca until all adults have been vaccinated is 3-4 weeks. Current death rate in Denmark is 2/day. Population 5.8 Million.

Sounds like a while lot more deaths than potential clot cases (not to mention clot deaths, which might be zero in a population that small).

Norway has ~10 deaths from Covid in the But only a small minority of the So it's a pretty safe assumption at this point that AZ is a bad option for younger age groups in countries with similar numbers, assuming that other vaccines will soon be available (they will)

Re: Denmark to permanently cease using AstraZeneca vaccine

#123

Post by mxcrossb »

eloff wrote: post #74
gms7777 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a real world example of a trolley problem. They're choosing to let a large group risk severe disease or death through inaction, rather than pulling the lever and have a small group be at risk due to their actions.

I think that's exactly it. There is a tradeoff to be made here with likely deaths on both sides, and the government is choosing much higher numbers of deaths because it looks better for them politically. That's immoral and cowardly. I don't see any way to justify the decision they've made logically.

The point of the trolley problem is that it’s hard to make the right decision. Yet apparently anyone who doesn’t make a decision based on the move naive application of utilitarianism is a coward.

Re: Denmark to permanently cease using AstraZeneca vaccine

#124

Post by trjordan »

londons_explore wrote: post #53

This decision seems illogical to many commenters here, but I assume the decision was made by professionals with all the data in front of them. Which then raises the question, why did these professionals make a decision so different than the "obvious" opinion here?

Because they may see that reducing the J&J supply to zero doesn’t meaningfully change the time to fully vaccinated.

Because they may see that clotting worries would harm public trust in vaccines, delaying or preventing us from getting to herd immunity.

Because they may see the number of people tested for blood clots, indicating the number is much higher than 1 in a million.

Because they may see that trading a week of paused administration at this point is a reasonable price to pay to ensure we get to herd immunity.

Re: Denmark to permanently cease using AstraZeneca vaccine

#125

Post by [deleted] »

zpeti wrote: post #77
eloff wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's exactly it. There is a tradeoff to be made here with likely deaths on both sides, and the government is choosing much higher numbers of deaths because it looks better for them politically. That's immoral and cowardly. I don't see any way to justify the decision they've made logically.

This pandemic is basically this entire story. COVID deaths are much more visible than the missed cancers, the depression and drug abuse caused by lockdowns, so basically it’s an easy choice for governments, lockdowns are better politically.

[deleted]

Re: Denmark to permanently cease using AstraZeneca vaccine

#126

Post by hef19898 »

ThePhysicist wrote: post #86

The EU will phase out the usage of AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson's vaccines entirely, according to Reuters [1]. Instead they plan to focus on mRNA approaches like Biontech/Pfizer and Moderna. [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronovirus-eu-vac...

And there I was thinking it couldn't get any worse... I should know better by now.

EDIT: It is close to impossible to find accurate delivery schedules for the EU. I hate that, if the answer to "When will how much be delivered?" is a "Enough by Qx" I always assume nobody has the slightest idea how much will be delivered when. Doesn't help to build trust. Statista has some numbers fr Germany by Quarter, no idea how accurate those are:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1199643/coronavirus-covi...

Based on these numbers, kicking out J&J and AZ Germany will loose 27 million doses in Q2 alone. With another 55.8 million in Q3. That's roughly one months worth of deliveries in Q2 and Q3 each. i really hope that decision is thought through and Moderna / BioNTech-Pfizer are up to cover the delta. Only last week I was so sure in June the EU would be through with almost all first shots, now not so much anymore.

EDIT 2: They are ending these contracts after expiry, end of 2021. So no short term impact, if true.

Re: Denmark to permanently cease using AstraZeneca vaccine

#127

Post by ReptileMan »

So more vaccines for the third world. Since this seems to be a regular talking point - if the Europe governments don't want them they could be shipped to poor countries - and since contracts are probably take or pay - this can be done for very low cost.

Re: Denmark to permanently cease using AstraZeneca vaccine

#128

Post by mxcrossb »

marvin wrote: post #99
alkonaut wrote: post #3

Not giving it to 65+ people seems overly cautious. There are zero cases in that group and even just a small delay will mean many dead. This is trading a potential unlikely side effect for a large number of severe Covid cases in high risk groups. Edit: yes I'm aware they have only a dozen or so dead per week but that also translates to hundreds of severe cases, missed elective surgeries, etc. For what would most likel…

The >65 population in Scandinavia is largely vaccinated already, and incidence of new cases is low. So it's a decision that might be questioned, but which would have small real-world consequences even if it turned out to be incorrect in isolation. That part of the decision might just be the combination of uncertainty combined with the public's skepticism towards this particular vaccine. Giving an impression of listen…

Sweden’s numbers are illustrative here, with COVID cases rising steadily since January, but deaths are going down.

Re: Denmark to permanently cease using AstraZeneca vaccine

#129

Post by joakleaf »

devit wrote: post #106
londons_explore wrote: post #53

This decision seems illogical to many commenters here, but I assume the decision was made by professionals with all the data in front of them. Which then raises the question, why did these professionals make a decision so different than the "obvious" opinion here?

Not sure it's that illogical. mRNA vaccines are apparently better and don't seem to have serious side effects, so only using those is correct if it doesn't delay immunity too long. According to the article, this might cause a 4 weeks delay: currently Denmark has around 2 deaths per day, thus possibly causing 60 additional deaths, which would match a vaccine death rate of 1/100000. Denmark has a 6 million population,…

+ most elderly have already been vaccinated or are in between shots.

Re: Denmark to permanently cease using AstraZeneca vaccine

#130

Post by peytn »

lukasLansky wrote: post #118
zpeti wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This pandemic is basically this entire story. COVID deaths are much more visible than the missed cancers, the depression and drug abuse caused by lockdowns, so basically it’s an easy choice for governments, lockdowns are better politically.

That is a narrative that misses the point of the thread and is generally not compatible with hard data. For example, the amount of suicides in US during 2020 went down .

Parent was talking about missed cancers and drug abuse, not suicides. Alcohol sales were up ~20% [1]—that too is hard data.

[1]: https://wineindustryadvisor.com/2020/11/16/nielsen-covid-bev...

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