The Global Population Crisis That Never Was • Hacker News Board

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#121

Post by fallingfrog » Mon, Mar 01, 2021, 4:11 PM UTC

The population bomb thesis was reasonable, up until about the 1970’s. But it turns out, if you give women access to education and birth control, the problem mostly goes away. I don’t know if I really fault people before then for worrying about it, perhaps the worrying was partly responsible for the solution. People say the same thing about nuclear war: all those marches were useless because the war never happened. How do you know the marches weren’t the reason the war never happened?

People are definitely going to say the same thing about climate change, if we manage to mitigate it: see, nothing bad happened, you wasted your time. No, the fact that we acted will have been why nothing bad happened.

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#122

Post by OrbitRock » Mon, Mar 01, 2021, 4:11 PM UTC

BurningFrog wrote: post #61

nahuel0x wrote: post #15

Now take in account the ecosystems destroyed and the picture is very different. We must leave behind the humans-only perspective.

We should always value humans over other species, and if you disagree you're an enemy of our species.

Valuing humans over other species at all costs leads to humans collapsing our environment and thus harming humans.

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#123

Post by OrbitRock » Mon, Mar 01, 2021, 4:15 PM UTC

basilgohar wrote: post #120

yellowstuff wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get you. It could be that worrying about doomsday is an innate human trait, and that as the article asserts, certain types of worries are motivated by racism. I still think it's a good idea to allocate some resources towards mitigating low probability, high impact events.

An even more rational approach is think about it in terms of classes of scenarios to prepare for – many threats can be averted and/or mitigated through common preparations. Seed stores, distributed infrastructure, general survival training, and so on. But given how remote many scenarios seem to most people making decisions, the extra effort for long term benefits over short term gains tends to favor the latter over t…

> Seed stores, distributed infrastructure, general survival training, and so on.

If we actually thought like this and prepared ourselves in this manner during good times it’d increase the resilience of our species so profoundly.

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#124

Post by rmrfrmrf » Mon, Mar 01, 2021, 4:19 PM UTC

adevx wrote: post #2

"The myth, as is commonly told, tells the story of a mid-twentieth century world headed for disaster. There were too many people being born and not enough food being produced. This combination of forces would lead inexorably to famine, unchecked migration, conflict and other calamities. However, thanks to the inventiveness of Western scientists more food was produced, Armageddon was avoided, and the world did not exp…

This is incorrect. The richest 10% of the population causes 49% of climate change. The poorest 50% of the population causes 10%.

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#125

Post by slibhb » Mon, Mar 01, 2021, 4:19 PM UTC

OrbitRock wrote: post #108

oilbagz wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>nobody today really argues for any of that stuff ahem https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/themes/population-pol... https://iiasa.ac.at/web/home/about/news/20140918-PDR-pop.htm... https://blog.iiasa.ac.at/2014/02/27/what-is-the-optimal-fert... https://www.ined.fr/en/glossary/population-policy/ Malthus should be targeted by the time-travellers for culling as soon as convenient ..

Those are good things. We don’t want 12-14 billion humans. The biosphere is already under enormous stress. https://www.nature.com/articles/nature11018

The UN has predicted that population will be stable around 10-12 billion by 2100. There is no reason to think the planet can't support that.

The places where the population is still growing don't pay the slightest attention to the anti-natalist stuff linked above. Population is already stable or declining in places where people care about that stuff.

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#126

Post by duxup » Mon, Mar 01, 2021, 4:20 PM UTC

BurningFrog wrote: post #63

As I've gotten older and seen predicted doomsdays come and go, I've started to think that expecting armageddon is an innate part of human psychology. I'm not aware of any era or place where many people have not expected the world to meet disaster soon. It's a part of all major religions.

Population crisis, peak oil, 'kids these days', rando 'not enough people believe in my ideology' driven crisis, 'Rome fell because people did a thing I don't like'...

It's funny to watch, a lot of these have seen before and will again.

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#127

Post by andrew_ » Mon, Mar 01, 2021, 4:23 PM UTC

rmrfrmrf wrote: post #124

adevx wrote: post #2

"The myth, as is commonly told, tells the story of a mid-twentieth century world headed for disaster. There were too many people being born and not enough food being produced. This combination of forces would lead inexorably to famine, unchecked migration, conflict and other calamities. However, thanks to the inventiveness of Western scientists more food was produced, Armageddon was avoided, and the world did not exp…

This is incorrect. The richest 10% of the population causes 49% of climate change. The poorest 50% of the population causes 10%.

Please cite sources for statistics like these.

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#128

Post by lotsofpulp » Mon, Mar 01, 2021, 4:23 PM UTC

saddlerustle wrote: post #98

jaegerpicker wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Food has two types of cost, market value and ecosystem cost. It always has been this case. It's the very reason that crop rotation was discovered. By improving the ecosystem that you farm in (in this case soil but Tree windbreaks also count etc...) you increase the productivity. The issue is that most ways to improve productivity are terribly short term. Think slash/burn. So yes food is cheaper than ever to buy but w…

What, exactly, will "run out" that affects most food production? The remaining soil lifespan in societies with developed agriculture is hundreds of years, and relatively cheap practices can extend that to thousands of years.

Water

https://www.nasa.gov/jpl/grace/study-third-of-big-groundwate...

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#129

Post by reader_mode » Mon, Mar 01, 2021, 4:23 PM UTC

duxup wrote: post #126

BurningFrog wrote: post #63

As I've gotten older and seen predicted doomsdays come and go, I've started to think that expecting armageddon is an innate part of human psychology. I'm not aware of any era or place where many people have not expected the world to meet disaster soon. It's a part of all major religions.

Population crisis, peak oil, 'kids these days', rando 'not enough people believe in my ideology' driven crisis, 'Rome fell because people did a thing I don't like'... It's funny to watch, a lot of these have seen before and will again.

Climate change ? I don't doubt it's happening but the doom scenarios seem in line with all those predictions

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#130

Post by simonh » Mon, Mar 01, 2021, 4:24 PM UTC

jcelerier wrote: post #54

simonh wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The top 7 regions creating refugees are Syria, Venezuela, Afghanistan, South Sudan, Myanmar, Somalia or Democratic Republic of Congo. None of them do so due to overpopulation, or even environmental or ecological crisis. They're all political issues.

> They're all political issues. ... where do you think these political issues come from ?

Other countries in the same regions facing the same issues are not in the same situation. Can you be more specific about the causes and effects you seem to be alleging?