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Coinbase S-1

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Re: Coinbase S-1

#121

Post by simias »

purple_ferret wrote: post #99
arnaudsm wrote: post #44

Many have forgotten why we used cryptocurrencies in the first place. The original promise of cryptocurrency was to become independent from banks. In the end CoinBase (like every exchange) is a great product, but just a bank. It's centralized, hackable, has economies of scale, etc.

Well Bitcoin was a huge failure in that regard. What it needed was inflation that scaled (to prevent hoarding), and ultimately, a way to obfuscate tracking. Imagine thinking knowing your dollar spend will be logged for all eternity is a more 'decentralized' alternative. But as with many idealists, Satoshi and his crypto friends probably didn't think too hard about the problems outside their expertise.

Inflation is the catch 22 though. With a limited supply it seems like bitcoin may never successfully become a currency due to deflation, but at the same time without the carrot of massive gains you probably wouldn't have had any adoption at all. Most people owning bitcoin these days do it as a speculative investment, hoping that it'll be worth (a lot) more one day. It's not for nothing that the rallying cry of cryptocurrency zealots everywhere is "HOLD".

I think the root of the issue is that bitcoin was created in a vacuum. Some guy didn't start minting euro bills in his basement until France and Germany though "hey, we could use that". The financial systems already existed, and they created the currency to unify pre-existing European currencies.

Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin don't have this institutional momentum so they need to reward its users to drive adoption, which is self-defeating in the long run because when I spend a 20 euro bill I don't think "uh, maybe I should just keep it for now, it'll be worth more tomorrow". Actually if anything I think the opposite due to inflation.

Re: Coinbase S-1

#122

Post by dd36 »

kolinko wrote: post #96
dd36 wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agree. What’s the upside? How can Coinbase be valued at nearly that of large banks that process orders of magnitude more transactions and can actually earn money on balances? NYSE and NASDAQ are surely not valued at anywhere close to $100b. Does that mean Coinbase can acquire them? Bubbles are bizarre. EDIT: Yes, it is valued at more than ICE and NASDAQ combined with a fraction of the revenue and significant risk. Mo…

By „fraction” you mean a quarter of revenue - Coinbase having around 1B in revenue, Nasdaq having 4B in 2020. Then, Coinbase grew 300% in the last year, Nasdaq just 33%. It’s like asking how Amazon can be worth more than Barnes and Noble in 2004 (or what year that was).

Except Amazon had opportunity to move beyond books. Coinbase should be valued nearly as much as Wells Fargo because maybe it will become Wells Fargo?!? Coinbase is tied to crypto inflation. That bubble can keep going but it’s a fraction of the volumes of the large players and I don’t see any long-term competitive advantage if crypto actually becomes useful to daily commerce.

EDIT: And fraction was less than 1/10th of the combined entities. Again, where’s the upside? Are you saying this gets to tens of billions in revenue? Wells is at $80 billion and valued at $150 billion. Is Coinbase going to get to $80 billion in revenue? How?

Re: Coinbase S-1

#124

Post by fnord77 »

ceejayoz wrote: post #104
a2tech wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We hate the central banks! We're going to take away the power from them and the government! slight inconveniences, fraud happens We need a place to store our coin and help securely move it! recreates central banks with even less regulation and security Profit!

I once saw crytpocurrency described as "speedrunning the evolution of the modern financial system".

in reverse. the evolution of the modern financial system is less and less friction for each transaction, lower costs.

crypto: more friction, slower transactions, higher transaction costs. And wicked exchange volatility.

Plus no way to expand or contract the supply to prevent economic shocks.

I like my fiat and central banks, thank you very much.

Re: Coinbase S-1

#125

Post by zrail »

lucasverra wrote: post #22

I do ask myself if a 100B valuation on public listing is the start of mainstream crypto. Plus the direct listing is a giant middle finger to traditional banking and overall establishment, right? Like : Here are the new rules this new internet will be playing by. Direct, decentralized. Adapt or die?

They still hired Goldman and Citi to advise on the listing.

Re: Coinbase S-1

#126

Post by kgwgk »

andy_ppp wrote: post #111
kgwgk wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely, the only thing they need. Because the barriers to entry are so high!

Well regulation of this stuff is a kind of nightmare. Building an exchange is a nightmare - I tried once and scaling the thing is really complicated.

It's not like coinbase has not to worry about regulation anymore.

And for the technical aspect, did you spend a few billion dollars when you tried? Potential coinbase competitors may.

I don't think a valuation higher than NYSE and NASDAQ combined (or CME and CBOE combined) is reasonable.

Re: Coinbase S-1

#127

Post by dpflan »

ceejayoz wrote: post #104
a2tech wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We hate the central banks! We're going to take away the power from them and the government! slight inconveniences, fraud happens We need a place to store our coin and help securely move it! recreates central banks with even less regulation and security Profit!

I once saw crytpocurrency described as "speedrunning the evolution of the modern financial system".

Ha! Sounds like an interesting perspective: do you perhaps have a link to the source?

Re: Coinbase S-1

#128

Post by bhupy »

fnord77 wrote: post #124
ceejayoz wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I once saw crytpocurrency described as "speedrunning the evolution of the modern financial system".

in reverse. the evolution of the modern financial system is less and less friction for each transaction, lower costs. crypto: more friction, slower transactions, higher transaction costs. And wicked exchange volatility. Plus no way to expand or contract the supply to prevent economic shocks. I like my fiat and central banks, thank you very much.

> I like my fiat and central banks, thank you very much.

I do too! But some people don't. And it appears that there are now options for everyone, which seems...good?

Re: Coinbase S-1

#129

Post by shawabawa3 »

jcims wrote: post #93
XorNot wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's actually a lot worse then that: if anyone gets access to Satoshi's private wallets (i.e. via finding the keys printed out on paper in a personal effects safe or something) then those coins could move. There's no way to absolutely sure that the keys are gone and inaccessible permanently.

I'm a complete n00b so this is coming from a place of ignorance, why is that such a factor in the current price? Someone is sitting on $50B in a $1T market, who cares?

selling $50B doesn't move the market from $1T to $950B

$1T is the market cap when each bitcoin is trading at ~$52k, but if $50B were sold over a short period of time, it would likely drop the price to $25k or less as the buy orders would all get eaten up

Re: Coinbase S-1

#130

Post by wtf_is_up »

dd36 wrote: post #67
newbie578 wrote: post #6

I have no doubt that they have a good business model, and that they are positioned quite nicely in the market. It's just that these valuations are getting crazy.. Everyone is already pricing in like 10+ crazy years of growth. Not everyone can grow like Facebook did...

Agree. What’s the upside? How can Coinbase be valued at nearly that of large banks that process orders of magnitude more transactions and can actually earn money on balances? NYSE and NASDAQ are surely not valued at anywhere close to $100b. Does that mean Coinbase can acquire them? Bubbles are bizarre. EDIT: Yes, it is valued at more than ICE and NASDAQ combined with a fraction of the revenue and significant risk. Mo…

Coinbase isn't going public via SPAC. SPACs are underwritten by the usual suspects... GS, CS, DB, MS, etc.
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