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The 2020 census is being ‘sabotaged,’ says leading U.S. statistician

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Re: The 2020 census is being ‘sabotaged,’ says leading U.S. statistician

#121
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It uses the term "free Persons" but the context is "their respective Numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole number of free Persons, including those bound to Service for a Term of Years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three fifths of all other Persons". So "all other Persons", i.e. slaves, were counted.

Well, the 3/5 compromise has been removed, but even still are you arguing that immigrants aren't people or aren't free, i.e. not slaves.

[deleted]

Re: The 2020 census is being ‘sabotaged,’ says leading U.S. statistician

#122
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

thought it was sarcasm at first, but it appears rubyistSeva genuinely isn't aware that the Democratic nominee was blocked four years ago on the basis of it being an election year, only for the Republican party to turn around and do exactly that this year.

The Republican party had no reason to hold confirmation hearings for Merrick Garland - the votes did not exist to confirm him. The role of the Senate is to provide advice and consent - there was no consent so there was no reason to do it. This year is different - Republicans hold the majority of the Senate and the White House. This nominee has the votes.

> The Republican party had no reason to hold confirmation hearings for Merrick Garland - the votes did not exist to confirm him.

The senators are supposed to go to the hearing and then decide whether they think the guy should be confirmed. For you to say he didn't have the votes is to admit it is just a power grab.

Why not just hold the hearing and vote against him if you don't like what you hear? The silly thing about this is they could have just gone through the motions, just like they are doing now.

Re: The 2020 census is being ‘sabotaged,’ says leading U.S. statistician

#123
post #69
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Democratic Party using the judicial branch and SCOTUS to legislate from the bench because Hasn't the supreme court been majority conservative for quite some time? Not majority liberal? (unless your comment is sarcasm)

Well, since everyone is claiming that with Barrett's nomination that it will turn into a Conservative majority, what does that tell you about what it looks like before that?

It will go from a conservative majority (typically 5-4 on polarizing cases — now 5-3 after Ginsburg’s death) to an entrenched conservative supermajority of 6-3, far less likely to ever render “non-conservative” verdicts on those cases. As you likely know.

Re: The 2020 census is being ‘sabotaged,’ says leading U.S. statistician

#124
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both sides have ulterior motives. Counting illegal immigrants in the census helps Democrats because liberal states have more of them. This is just a fact. You may think we should still count as many of them in the census, that's fine. But don't pretend there is no issue with one side of the argument. Mentioning motives of one side but not the other is naive. It also prevents us from having a real conversation about t…

But that’s the whole point of the census. I agree Democrats wouldn’t care if it weren’t politically beneficial, but in this case their interest and the law coincide. Everyone, legal resident or not, should be counted. There’s zero legal /constitutional question about it. If you’re going to get angry every time someone does the right thing for the wrong reasons, I am afraid you’re in for a lifetime of disappointment.…

It’s not as simple.

Essentially the vote of two US citizens does not count equally if you count everyone.

If one lives in an area with more illegal immigrants, that US citizens votes foe him/her but also for the non voters in the area. This is not a ‘one person one vote’ situation and it’s a real concern if you believe in equal representation.

Ideally you’d have a citizenship question and you count only citizens for electoral college allocation and everyone for non electoral college matters. But that creates concerns of undercounting etc.

Re: The 2020 census is being ‘sabotaged,’ says leading U.S. statistician

#125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The distribution of voting power is based on population, not citizenship. Non-citizens need to be counted too.

Only citizens can vote.

It doesn't matter - when the document was written America had tons of non-citizens and those people were counted.

Slaves couldn't vote either, but in the famous compromise were counted as a portion of a person - the distribution of political power is why.

Re: The 2020 census is being ‘sabotaged,’ says leading U.S. statistician

#126
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a lot of things you can "both sides" but only one side is undermining democracy because their positions are unpopular.

Whose positions are unpopular? Last I checked most of the elections are pretty evenly split at the national level (+/- 10%).

Based on polling data, 3/4th if Americans support Roe vs Wade. However, both parties are trying to get elected so they pick a set of options that gives them a significant chance to be elected.

Why such unpopular options can make the cut is people don’t care about issues equally. When a significant minority care a lot about one issue they get patched together with other such groups and you can get elected even if most people disagree with the majority of what you stand for.

Over time identity politics eventually confuses things as people constantly supporting one party tend to adopt the stances of that party. This gets interesting when parties swap position on some issue.

Re: The 2020 census is being ‘sabotaged,’ says leading U.S. statistician

#127

> This means [it eliminated] literally a third of the time allocated for the Census Bureau to knock on doors, to try to enumerate the hard-to-count individuals, which happen to be African Americans, Latinx populations, immigrants, people in heavily transitory situations, tribal lands, some Asians. Random question but why would some races have more trouble than others responding to the census? Is it more to do with po…

Q: Do you have any sense for how many people might have been counted had the census efforts continued to Oct. 31?

> It’s not going to be much. If you’re hard to count, you’re hard to count. The people who are hardest to count, the ones we worry most about in terms of undercount, are the same folks whose families don’t have food at night or don’t have a job. They’re worried about getting tossed out because they can’t make the rent. Or they’re ill and don’t have health insurance. Those folks tend not to have participating in the census at the top of their minds because they have basic needs that have to be met — for themselves, their children and sometimes for their parents and grandparents.

> Because of those things that those people have to deal with, you actually could have extended the time for another month on top of that and you’d only get marginal gains. The census was already in a tough position. It would definitely help to get as much time as possible, because as people become acquainted with how to deal with Covid, they can do the grassroots effort that’s needed to get people to participate. But it’s going to be a marginal increase. At the end of the day, the die has been cast for quite a while: There are going to be undercounts of communities of color. The only question is how large — and is it so large that action needs to be taken in the form of litigation or legislation.

Re: The 2020 census is being ‘sabotaged,’ says leading U.S. statistician

#128
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both sides have ulterior motives. Counting illegal immigrants in the census helps Democrats because liberal states have more of them. This is just a fact. You may think we should still count as many of them in the census, that's fine. But don't pretend there is no issue with one side of the argument. Mentioning motives of one side but not the other is naive. It also prevents us from having a real conversation about t…

But that’s the whole point of the census. I agree Democrats wouldn’t care if it weren’t politically beneficial, but in this case their interest and the law coincide. Everyone, legal resident or not, should be counted. There’s zero legal /constitutional question about it. If you’re going to get angry every time someone does the right thing for the wrong reasons, I am afraid you’re in for a lifetime of disappointment.…

If there wasn’t a constitutional question there wouldn’t be an upcoming Supreme Court case about it.

And let’s be real - I find it pretty unlikely the constitution and 14th Amendment were written with massive amounts of illegal aliens being in the country in mind. Should we count tourists from other countries as well?

Re: The 2020 census is being ‘sabotaged,’ says leading U.S. statistician

#129
post #91
post #85

This is only tangentially related, but I think it provides important context to this discussion about the motives of those involved. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/30/us/census-citizenship-que...

Both sides have ulterior motives. Counting illegal immigrants in the census helps Democrats because liberal states have more of them. This is just a fact. You may think we should still count as many of them in the census, that's fine. But don't pretend there is no issue with one side of the argument. Mentioning motives of one side but not the other is naive. It also prevents us from having a real conversation about t…

> liberal states have more [illegal immigrants]

I was skeptical about this so I looked it up. Nevada and Texas are the top 2 states on a per capita basis. I'd hardly call those liberal states.

https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/interactives/u-s-unauth...

Re: The 2020 census is being ‘sabotaged,’ says leading U.S. statistician

#130
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand the Democratic side here either. There's a question of citizenship, but census data is used to determine allocation of electoral college votes. The electoral college system being something that I support but that Democrats keep trying to undermine. Yeah if you come here undocumented, or illegally, there's pretty natural consequences. I don't think anyone should ignore that. And they seem to want un…

I agree. It would be much better if both sides were at least honest. for example, the Democrats could say "we understand some electoral college votes will be indirectly allocated to illegal immigrants, we also understand that because liberal states have more illegal immigrants it will help the left more than the right, but that's the price to pay for counting every actual US citizen." The republicans could say, 'we w…

I agree with the general thrust of what you're saying in terms of honesty, but I want to point out that it's not clear that the ground truth fits/supports this framing.

If you look at something like https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/interactives/u-s-unauth... and sort the list any way you want: There are several reliable D/R states with almost no undocumented immigrant population, and several D/R states with 3%+.

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