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Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

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Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#121

Post by valuearb »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #31
wtallis wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Half the satellites is still a lot of satellites . BO would need to ramp up to at least monthly launches sometime in the next two years. SpaceX is only doing a little better than that, and they started sending the Falcon 9 to orbit in 2010.

New Glenn is a lot bigger than Falcon, though. It has twice the capacity to LEO by weight and more than twice by volume. So if a Kuiper satellite is the same size as a Starlink one, they should be able to launch 120 per flight. 14 flights to get above 1618. That could be done within a single year, although that's a big ask for a company that hasn't hit orbit yet...

New Glenn is a paper rocket built around unproven engines.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#122

Post by valuearb »

darksaints wrote: post #36
caiobegotti wrote: post #4

"If Kuiper succeeds [...]" That's the biggest if clause you will ever see about this because in order for it to succeed at all BO needs to actually launch something to orbit at least once before we talk about success of a commercial product on top of their rockets. I follow up SpaceX quite closely, I admit, but any news about products that absolutely depend on the launch capability of BO is vaporware at most and most…

Only tangentially related to your comment, but I find it interesting enough to comment anyway. Jeff Bezos is literally the wealthiest man alive, and by some measures, the wealthiest that has ever lived. He could literally buy anything he could ever want. Most people would have gladly retired and lived whatever life they wanted to, and they would have done it billions of dollars ago. And so, the fact that he hasn't re…

Far from the wealthiest ever, based on percentage of GDP. He might not be top 100.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#123

Post by valuearb »

jncraton wrote: post #25
caiobegotti wrote: post #4

"If Kuiper succeeds [...]" That's the biggest if clause you will ever see about this because in order for it to succeed at all BO needs to actually launch something to orbit at least once before we talk about success of a commercial product on top of their rockets. I follow up SpaceX quite closely, I admit, but any news about products that absolutely depend on the launch capability of BO is vaporware at most and most…

I don't fully understand the negativity around BO. They haven't gone to orbit yet, and they don't run everything they do as a PR campaign the way that SpaceX does, but getting a rocket to orbit isn't that big of a deal these days. We first achieved orbital flight over 50 years ago, and many different groups have achieved the same since then. Given Bezos' deep pockets, why would BO fail where so many other have succee…

BO hasn’t done anything. They’ve demonstrated zero progress. They haven’t even attempted orbit. Their tiny tourist vehicle has gone what, four years in testing, without a single person on board, let alone a customer?

So why the positivity? Because they made videos and a giant plastic lander mockup?

Why the negativity? They tried to patent landing rockets on a ship ten years ago, and still have never done it.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#124

Post by valuearb »

“ If Kuiper succeeds, Amazon can not only offer global satellite broadband access—it can include that access as part of its Amazon Web Services (AWS), which already offers resources for cloud computing, machine learning, data analytics, and more.”

No they can’t. A handful of Kuiper subscribers in Los Angeles can saturate all of available bandwidth in LA. These satellite constellations are only going to be useful for subscribers in relatively remote and less dense areas.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#125

Post by cma »

valuearb wrote: post #120
cma wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX has claimed we will definitely have point to point rocket travel in 7-8 years, in production, for between the cost of a coach and business class ticket [1]. Long haul airlines will begin getting phased out according to them. Since reliability is going to fundamentally change by that much in order to have massive passenger rockets replacing jet travel, Blue Origin has nothing to worry about. There is a magic in…

Musk has laid out some pretty big visions he hasn’t yet achieved (see Mars, colonization) and doesn’t always meet his aggressive deadlines, but he’s actually accomplishing a great deal. An rocket with 80 commercial launches, landing and reusing hypersonic first stages (and now fairings), the worlds first full flow staged combustion engine, the most powerful rocket in the world (Falcon Heavy), StarLink with already 65…

If we can start replacing long-haul passenger planes with rockets that soon, I feel that BO can launch the sats or Amazon can pay someone else to launch them. Unless there is something going on edging into magical that is going to put SpaceX that far ahead that there would be people taking rockets for regularly commercial flight, not thrill seeking space tourism, price-competitive with commercial flight and reliable.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#126

Post by valuearb »

cma wrote: post #125
valuearb wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk has laid out some pretty big visions he hasn’t yet achieved (see Mars, colonization) and doesn’t always meet his aggressive deadlines, but he’s actually accomplishing a great deal. An rocket with 80 commercial launches, landing and reusing hypersonic first stages (and now fairings), the worlds first full flow staged combustion engine, the most powerful rocket in the world (Falcon Heavy), StarLink with already 65…

If we can start replacing long-haul passenger planes with rockets that soon, I feel that BO can launch the sats or Amazon can pay someone else to launch them. Unless there is something going on edging into magical that is going to put SpaceX that far ahead that there would be people taking rockets for regularly commercial flight, not thrill seeking space tourism, price-competitive with commercial flight and reliable.

There are a lot of steps remaining for SpaceX to start a long haul point to point passenger service on Earth. First, Starship has to meet its safety and performance aspirations, that’s at least a decades worth of work. The first passengers won’t be for a couple years, and they will only be astronauts and explorers for at least a decade, until Raptor has a long history of trustworthy flights. Then there is the government approvals, offshore launch and landing sites with high volume transport to/from them, etc. Point to Point might be twenty years away.

So yes, its reasonable BO will be launching payloads within the same time frame, 10-20 years.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#127

Post by kemiller »

pavon wrote: post #112
kemiller wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LEO satellites have potential for very low latency over large distances which could be very valuable for multi-zone customers and Amazon itself. Lasers in a vacuum.

But also low bandwidth/area. Which means that this won't be useful for any significant amount of backhaul, only for last mile service in low density areas. Their groundstations will certainly have good connections to AWS, no doubt, but I don't see a huge market for good connection to AWS from sparse area.s There are some niches, for example oil/gas extraction like the article mentioned, but nothing huge. Maybe Amazon…

I'm sure HFT hedge funds are interested.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#128

Post by HeadsUpHigh »

pavon wrote: post #112
kemiller wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LEO satellites have potential for very low latency over large distances which could be very valuable for multi-zone customers and Amazon itself. Lasers in a vacuum.

But also low bandwidth/area. Which means that this won't be useful for any significant amount of backhaul, only for last mile service in low density areas. Their groundstations will certainly have good connections to AWS, no doubt, but I don't see a huge market for good connection to AWS from sparse area.s There are some niches, for example oil/gas extraction like the article mentioned, but nothing huge. Maybe Amazon…

You don't need high bandwidth density for this kind of usage. A single downlink in an area connecting to some datacenter in LEO could be useful for latency sensitive stuff. Then on top of that there's a huge market hasn't been cracked yet which is automated planting of crops. It needs 1-2 cm of accuracy to be useful and the best in the market currently is at 6cm. Plus all kinds of IoT stuff and long-range latency sensitive backhaul( in which case LEO constellations win because the distance is actually smaller due to the low number of trans-oceanic cables and the high number of switches along the way).

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#129

Post by gaukes »

maxdo wrote: post #110
almost_usual wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It sounds like marketing for AWS.

maybe this guy will receive some amazon cloud bonuses for his students :) At least our discussion will support some education projects and also make some amazon Guys more happy :)

I’ve seen this a lot with professors of industry-focused business schools in universities. I think they’re either getting funding / paid or using the connections to pull strings.

These professors usually consult with a lot of government organizations and older companies. If you can make these professors your corporate shill, I guess it’s good marketing.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#130

Post by aliswe »

gaukes wrote: post #129
maxdo wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

maybe this guy will receive some amazon cloud bonuses for his students :) At least our discussion will support some education projects and also make some amazon Guys more happy :)

I’ve seen this a lot with professors of industry-focused business schools in universities. I think they’re either getting funding / paid or using the connections to pull strings. These professors usually consult with a lot of government organizations and older companies. If you can make these professors your corporate shill, I guess it’s good marketing.

Did you see the doc "Bananas" where Dole paid a prof to issue a statement comparing it to the antisemite propaganda of ww2 germany?
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