121–130 of 202 posts
I could only read to this point due to the paywall, but US sanctions halved Iranian oil exports from 2017 -> 2019 [0] as well. Goes to show the significance of the sanctions.
I mean, this happened just a few years ago back in 2015, right? And 2008, and 2001, and 1998... These petro states suffer from the curse of natural resources combined with leadership that is too busy feasting off of the intermittent boom cycle to prepare their people constructively for the bust that comes later. So you have entire countries that are basically dependent on the oil handout, and in bad times, have littl…
> I mean, this happened just a few years ago back in 2015, right? And 2008, and 2001, and 1998 The point here is that sub $40 oil is becoming the new norm. While these countries can weather a 2-3 year drop in oil prices, those short term drops are more and more frequent and the bottom keeps getting lower. Between electrification of transportation and reduced travel which may last for another 6 months (or much longer,…
Also take a look at this inflation adjusted crude oil chart: https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-cha...
You have a high period from 1980-85 and from 2005-14... but those are the exceptions rather than the norm. I'm sure they got spoiled by the high prices, but $40-50 is a normal price for oil.. and they'll learn to adjust like they have in the past.
The electrification of transportation is great and it'll eventually have the effects your mention... but right now, those effects are out weighed by the growth in developing markets. Very similar effect as renewables and coal. Coal use will keep growing through 2030, even though renewables are growing rapidly. The demand for these things (vehicles, energy) is much higher than what the clean economy can deliver at the moment.
It seems like the Middle East is going to get a double whammy from climate change. 1. Their economies will be affected as the world moves to non-oil based energy. 2. Their land will become more uninhabitable as time goes on. Higher temperatures, less water, more sandstorms, etc. I've seen studies that say the Middle East will be completely uninhabitable by the end of the century so we should expect mass migration fro…
I had a roommate from Saudi Arabia who said that their king have realized that a while ago and because they have basically infinite money, he started to develop small cities that have touristic potential, and people are being taught English too. In his words, they want to change this oil stereotype about their country, and that in ten years their country will be transformed.
I question how realistic it is for Saudi Arabia to turn into anything like the "tech hub" or "international finance center" or whatever of the area while simultaneously being an Islamist, conservative theocracy that is in many ways still judicially medieval. Even if they pull it off, many people will think twice about coming there. Corruption, bigotry and a close-minded view of the world needs to go first. Look at a…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Norway kind of proves it is possible to make it work without the corruption. But Norway also proves that you need to lay the groundwork for that, before you lay any actual groundwork. I am not sure if these other oil producing states could reach a level of stability as Norway.
> Norway kind of proves it is possible to make it work without the corruption The Norwegian state and identity were formed before oil.
At least the UAE started construction when oil prices were high. I can't imagine a Gulf state starting a reactor program now with oil prices so low.
https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/nuclear-gulf-experts-soun...
I'm not going to defend Dubai but regarding oil being dominant to the economy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Dubai Oil production, which once accounted for 50 percent of Dubai's gross domestic product, contributes less than 1 percent to GDP today.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Also a fair point, but since most of these countries need oil to be at $70-80/ barrel to balance their books, do you think they will care about how that hair is split?
Did I not hear that some of those high numbers either have to do with corruption or over-reliance of public services on socialized oil industry profits? Last time this came up someone was trying to make the argument that the reason some countries need 50% higher oil prices has less to do with the costs of extracting and shipping the oil and more to do with the cost of doing business in that country. If so, you may se…
The shallow pro market idealism that too often colors the Economist's analysis is hard to swallow. Give me the confidence to pronounce: 'If Arab rulers want citizens to pay their way, they will need to start earning their consent' in a complex and unstable region. As thou they can see the consequences of complex change. The ghosts of the dead in Libya, Syria and Egypt (remember that brief flame of democracy) should b…
Not exactly sure your critique (maybe I'm misunderstanding?). The gist I get from the article is that many Arab states have dependend on oil to stablize their economies/internal politics and fund their way of life, and that while some of these states had plans to diversify the current cheap oil makes the execution of that plan more complicated. In addition (something I learned from this article) the economies in the…
It is analysis governed by imagination and thus is hardly worth detailed consideration.
I thought this article was about the new UAE nuclear reactor. If anything I figured solar would be smarter for a hot sunny region. But dust, heat, and fragile panels (target for attack) may not be a good idea. At least the UAE started construction when oil prices were high. I can't imagine a Gulf state starting a reactor program now with oil prices so low. https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/nuclear-gulf-experts-soun.…