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Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds (2017)

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Re: Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds (2017)

#121
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Specific facts are orthogonal to the actual underlying positions held, which are presented outwardly as other positions for the sake of political cover, hence the illusion of facts not changing minds. What's needed is an understanding of the actual underlying, usually hidden, positions, then present facts to disrupt those positions.

This is unclear to me. Can you explain what you mean in the context of my alternative example?

Not OP, but

You might not know anything about risk-taking behavior of firefighters but you may already have some vague belief like "firefighters are heroes" that obliquely colors your impression of their behavior.

Or alternatively you might hold onto the info that Germany is colder because your underlying belief is more like, you don't like cold and you don't like Germany, so you'd like to also believe that Germany is colder than other places.

This entails two things. One, your apparent position on firefighter behavior or the weather in Germany can change depending on what in the context of the conversation is being construed as good or bad. Second, trying to inform you with specific facts on these issues is unlikely to change your mind because the drivers of your positions are your more general beliefs about firefighters and Germany.

In politics, I think partisanship often degenerates in this way. Arguing the issues is often just a facade for arguing for your party's position or arguing against an opposing party's position, regardless of merit. Facts won't work here to change minds.

Re: Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds (2017)

#122
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is unclear to me. Can you explain what you mean in the context of my alternative example?

Not OP, but You might not know anything about risk-taking behavior of firefighters but you may already have some vague belief like "firefighters are heroes" that obliquely colors your impression of their behavior. Or alternatively you might hold onto the info that Germany is colder because your underlying belief is more like, you don't like cold and you don't like Germany, so you'd like to also believe that Germany i…

You're just making same claim as the authors in the study, but adding a proposed mechanism. But just as they don't have evidence, neither do you. You have to actually do the study to prove it. If you believe that the experiment would work this just means you and I have different priors on the matter.

Re: Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds (2017)

#123
post #90
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I really dislike this narrative that facts don't change our minds and we are all irrational. I don't think that is the real "narrative" here, although reading this article may make it seem like that. The "narrative", or rather the modern scientific understanding which this article tries to present to a lay audience, is that real rational thinking is not our default, even though it seems to us that way. But we can t…

> Study cognitive biases to become more aware of their effects on our thinking and hopefully "immunize" our mind against some of their effects. I’m not sure this works. In fact, Daniel Khaneman has said in the into to “Thinking: Fast and Slow” that all his study into cognitive biases has led him to believe he’s powerless to stop them in himself, and still only able to recognize them in others

That's where my third bullet comes in... you need a high degree of metacognitive awareness (mindfulness) to be able recognize your own biases. Together they do make a difference. If you're well versed in cognitive biases, then as you increase your mindfulness you will begin to recognize them in yourself, at first with a delay, upon reflection, and later --- when you're practically a Zen master ;-) --- you may recognize them in real-time and be able to correct them immediately.

Re: Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds (2017)

#124
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suppose I was a bit antagonistic in my post sorry, but if anything your observation supports the article's position. Why should facts exert only a slow, painstaking generational force on belief if people are actually rational? Surely it should have immediate effect? I really don't see what these researchers or journalists have to gain, beyond what they would gain from doing any research or journalism. I'm just not…

Why should facts exert a slow pull? In addition to any unknown constraints with neural mechanisms an overly high learning rate has been noted with neural networks as resembling schizophrenia in some ways. Plus whatvever physiological constraints limit how fast minds could change. I suspect it effectively functions as minor anti-mindhacking measure as bizzare and dumb as it sounds. It would protect against adversarial…

An Untrollable Mathematician, Illustrated: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CvKnhXTu9BPcdKE4W/an-untroll...

To summarise: for reasons, it's possible for somebody to endlessly drive up and down a computationally-limited agent's credence estimate for mathematical conjecture X (so long as the agent hasn't found a proof yet) just by stating implications of the conjecture, if the agent is trying to use ideal Bayesian reasoning. It's possible to make this "trolling" impossible, by basically turning your "mental inertia" up to 11 – but that proves it's possible to be untrollable.

Re: Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds (2017)

#125
post #123
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Study cognitive biases to become more aware of their effects on our thinking and hopefully "immunize" our mind against some of their effects. I’m not sure this works. In fact, Daniel Khaneman has said in the into to “Thinking: Fast and Slow” that all his study into cognitive biases has led him to believe he’s powerless to stop them in himself, and still only able to recognize them in others

That's where my third bullet comes in... you need a high degree of metacognitive awareness (mindfulness) to be able recognize your own biases. Together they do make a difference. If you're well versed in cognitive biases, then as you increase your mindfulness you will begin to recognize them in yourself, at first with a delay, upon reflection, and later --- when you're practically a Zen master ;-) --- you may recogni…

I think what Khaneman was getting at is that it's hopeless futile to try and recognize your own biases in a meaningful. So why I understand your statement, I'm skeptical that's it's possible if someone at the forefront of cognitive science admits he can't do it. I'm still enough of an optimist to try and use mindfulness myself to accomplish that though.

Of course, maybe he's just really bad at being mindful ;-)

Re: Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds (2017)

#126
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh that's a fact right there. Take any piece of evidence or information, if it is ridiculed too much or violently opposed, and has been for ages, but no one forgot it, then it's probably true or partially true.

Yep, this "round earth" nonsense that has had people ridiculing good honest flatworlders for generations will die out any minute! Aaaaany minute....

Ok you found a negative to my law. That was too easy. Now look with more attention and tell me a positive. You can do it!
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