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Former Wirecard CEO Markus Braun arrested

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Re: Former Wirecard CEO Markus Braun arrested

#121

Post by lazyjones »

gumby wrote: post #120
lazyjones wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Deals done into {Germany,LA,SV,SF} from funds anywhere in world. That's not the same as the available venture capital. If there are no good investments to be made, the potential venture capital simply isn't (all) invested. So the point that lack of VC is a problem is wrong, it's the attractive startups that are missing. It's the same in Austria - I invested in 2 startups, got a little burned and have since not inve…

If you think that’s the case why not invest in the USA?

I am investing in the USA, just not in the VC market. The legislation is a barrier, the physical distance too. So it's just the stock/options market for me now.

Re: Former Wirecard CEO Markus Braun arrested

#122

Post by klyrs »

greenhatglack wrote: post #87
tenpies wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's really interesting is seeing the same people sound the same alarms about extremely popular companies that continue to trade today , and yet our regulators, auditors, and journalists all ignore them. We really never learn. If I were a regulator I would be taking short seller statements extremely seriously when it comes from one of the proven reliable ones.

Though I can't speak for regulators and auditors, you have to keep in mind that 99% of journalists are just hired guns who's sights are specified ahead of time. Since no one with power had their sights on Wirecard, nothing happened - it's not unexpected.

> keep in mind that 99% of journalists are just hired guns who's sights are specified ahead of time.

That's a pretty specific claim you're making. Got a source?

Re: Former Wirecard CEO Markus Braun arrested

#123

Post by pheug »

realityking wrote: post #115
pheug wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You get 401k match and health insurance at any good employer in the US too. As well as much lower taxes. German taxes are just batshit crazy, second only to Belgium. How people can afford to FI/RE with these taxes and pay is beyond me. Oh wait they don't! One of the lowest median wealth per adult in western Europe!

I‘m not saying you‘re wrong, but the media wealth statistic are heavily distorted by two facts 1. our retirement systems is based on a generational contract, not capital 2. home ownership is very low If you control for both the results would look very different. Now #2 obviously causes a huge issue in terms of generational wealth.

> 1. our retirement systems is based on a generational contract, not capital

You mean that people pop kids so that those kids would feel obliged to take care of them when they're old? Yeah, that's one legitimate retirement strategy. It's very popular in poor countries e.g. ex-USSR where I'm from.

Personally I'm more of a fan of US-style self-made retirement. It's easily possibly working in tech in the US, a 10 year career basically guarantees you financial independence here barring any major set back (like divorce). But not so in Germany and much of Europe.

> 2. home ownership is very low

Isn't that roughly same as saying people aren't wealthy enough to afford one? So if you "control" for this factor, you're just selecting the richer subset of people.

Re: Former Wirecard CEO Markus Braun arrested

#125

Post by realityking »

pheug wrote: post #123
realityking wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I‘m not saying you‘re wrong, but the media wealth statistic are heavily distorted by two facts 1. our retirement systems is based on a generational contract, not capital 2. home ownership is very low If you control for both the results would look very different. Now #2 obviously causes a huge issue in terms of generational wealth.

> 1. our retirement systems is based on a generational contract, not capital You mean that people pop kids so that those kids would feel obliged to take care of them when they're old? Yeah, that's one legitimate retirement strategy. It's very popular in poor countries e.g. ex-USSR where I'm from. Personally I'm more of a fan of US-style self-made retirement. It's easily possibly working in tech in the US, a 10 year c…

> You mean that people pop kids so that those kids would feel obliged to take care of them when they're old?

It's not based on a generational contract within the same family (i.e. my kids pay my retirement) but society wide. Instead of saving up capital I pay the retirement benefits of the current generation and when I retire the then current workforce will pay mine. For the calculation of median wealth this shows up as a big fat 0 (no capital) but it gives me significant financial safety of having a set income from the age of 67 to the end of my life, no matter how old I get. Shit system if you die at 68 (or even earlier), amazing system if you live to be 95.

The existence of this system is largely based on WW2. There was no capital to pay for people at retirement age in the 50s so the current system was developed.

> It's easily possibly working in tech in the US, a 10 year career basically guarantees you financial independence here barring any major set back (like divorce).

The US has always been a very individualistic society and it' s probably the best country in the world to be rich in. For tech workers in FAANG it's a great place to be. If I look at the long tail of workers I shudder. The living condition of the working class is far, far worse than what I see in north/west Europe. Of course there's poverty here too but at a very different level. Personally, I'm happy to pay my taxes and social insurance obligations so I don't have drive past tent cities on my way to work.

> Isn't that roughly same as saying people aren't wealthy enough to afford one?

Well I'd control for it by excluding the value of your residency from the household wealth. Your original post was commenting on median wealth compared to other Western European countries. I'm merely pointing out that this is too simplistic a number to compare without context.

Re: Former Wirecard CEO Markus Braun arrested

#126

Post by _curious_ »

arcturus17 wrote: post #119
_curious_ wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess we all have our limits? Just wish the newsletter was more concise with the opp to dig deeper...found that just reading a segment at times drags on and gets interrupted/ incomplete. A better approach would be to either pull a single paragraph from the full length piece, a TLDR type summary conclusion of the broader thought and hyperlink that clip to the expanded/full content on Bloomberg's site. This would res…

I love long-form newsletters and prefer them to reading content on the web (no ads, instant load times, the personal touch of having it delivered in my mailbox, breaking out of the "one more click" dynamic when browsing the web, etc.) . I guess it's why people like Ben Thomson or Matt Levine write and distribute them - ultimately, because there's an audience for it. The former even makes a pretty penny with it, and I…

As a consumer, I am completely in agreement insofar as the benefits or receiving content via email medium vs. going on the web, esp. considering bloomberg does have a paywall at some point, autoplay ads, noise, etc. Comparatively, the user experience w/ email is unanimously better via email!

And of course, in this hypothetical, that same content would need be equally accessible/free on the site as in the email otherwise moot point to begin with.

But the publishers POV, this author in question creates really compelling content, so much so that as a consumer of it, I actually would sacrifice hopping to/reading on bloomberg.com if it meant a more palatable intro/summary initially via email. (And again assuming it's just as free).

Indeed the open rate claim is unsubstantiated, and we do not know what the metrics look like in any dimension. And maybe they even tested this out early on / upfront and evolved into what it is now? There has to be some data/science to it, because right now, the email appears to be hardly commercialized, so Bloomberg is not only missing out on the site traffic benefits, but also not optimizing email monetization? (A quick glance with adblock off shows now ads?)

Anecdotally (and maybe I am completely alone here) I am more inclined to click on a content link or open an email if I believe that there is a high probably of thoroughly reading what's inside. Take for FWIW, my own process of unsubscribing: I went from opening all/90%+ to opening less and less over the coming weeks because I knew I couldn't consume/get through enough/all and that felt defeating, futile, and proving impossible. So eventually, I stopped opening all together, stayed subbed for a few more weeks, but eventually unsubbed altogether when it came time for a monthly inbox pruning. No we both lost in this scenario, I can admit.

I am biased too, because in a previous life I built an email list with ~50% open rate and ~25% CTR (high for my field/industry) built upon this outbound link strategy, as I know others have to. Apparently there are multiple ways to go about it :)

(All that said I am surprised at all the downvoting...either Levine has a mob on here intolerant of any harmless critique or generally my parent comment wasn't relevant enough to the broader topic at hand? It would be helpful to hear feedback on why)

Re: Former Wirecard CEO Markus Braun arrested

#127

Post by pheug »

realityking wrote: post #125
pheug wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1. our retirement systems is based on a generational contract, not capital You mean that people pop kids so that those kids would feel obliged to take care of them when they're old? Yeah, that's one legitimate retirement strategy. It's very popular in poor countries e.g. ex-USSR where I'm from. Personally I'm more of a fan of US-style self-made retirement. It's easily possibly working in tech in the US, a 10 year c…

> You mean that people pop kids so that those kids would feel obliged to take care of them when they're old? It's not based on a generational contract within the same family (i.e. my kids pay my retirement) but society wide. Instead of saving up capital I pay the retirement benefits of the current generation and when I retire the then current workforce will pay mine. For the calculation of median wealth this shows up…

I ran the numbers and I don't think it's as amazing as you describe:

From what I could quickly find online (correct me if I'm wrong), the theoretical maximum pension you can get today is 3034 EUR/month, starting from the age of 67. With current life expectancy you're going to enjoy it for only about 15 years on average. To get it, you need to work for 45 years straight earning at least 82800 EUR each year and paying whopping 18.6% of that (incl. employer part) for the privilege to be part of this amazing system.

Let's look at net present value as of retirement age of both sides of the equation:

  for r in [1.07, 1.05, 1.012]:  # discount factor
    for y in [15, 30]:  # years to live
      print('%.3f %d %.0f %.0f' % (r, y, 
            sum(82800*0.186*r**i for i in range(45)),
            sum(3034*12/r**i for i in range(y))))

  #discount factor, years to live, NPV contributions, NPV payout
  1.070 15 4400768 354813
  1.070 30 4400768 483414
  1.050 15 2459510 396798
  1.050 30 2459510 587664
  1.012 15 911856 503038
  1.012 30 911856 923662
No matter how you slice it, the answer seems to be the same: you pay way more into the system than you get out of it. Only under rather unrealistic assumptions that you can't get more than ca. 1% investment return for 45 years(!) and you're going to live till almost your 100th birthday(!) do you approach a break-even point

Re: Former Wirecard CEO Markus Braun arrested

#128

Post by realityking »

pheug wrote: post #127
realityking wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You mean that people pop kids so that those kids would feel obliged to take care of them when they're old? It's not based on a generational contract within the same family (i.e. my kids pay my retirement) but society wide. Instead of saving up capital I pay the retirement benefits of the current generation and when I retire the then current workforce will pay mine. For the calculation of median wealth this shows up…

I ran the numbers and I don't think it's as amazing as you describe: From what I could quickly find online (correct me if I'm wrong), the theoretical maximum pension you can get today is 3034 EUR/month, starting from the age of 67. With current life expectancy you're going to enjoy it for only about 15 years on average. To get it, you need to work for 45 years straight earning at least 82800 EUR each year and paying…

I respect the effort you put in to really understand this system, most folks wouldn‘t do this based on our short conversation.

Unfortunately the system is rather convoluted and the math has more unknowns to it.

- the maximum salary on which you pay the retirement insistence is dynamic and rises every year - every year you earn “points” based on the relationship between the current average salary and your own salary. (The average is 1 point)

Now these two above can be ignored to get an estimate how the return compares to a capital based system. The following three can’t:

- the worth of a point changes, both while you’re working but also during your retirement. You’ll receive more money in year 14 of your retirement than in year 1. Today one point is worth 33,23€. 2010 it was just 24,13€. The value changes based on the average net salary of those who pay I to the system. - the insurance will pay out early if you become disabled and unable to work. I just looked up my numbers from last year and while I only earned retirement benefits of less than 300€ so far (based on the current point value) my disability benefits would be over 900€ - if I die my widow and/or unsafe children can get some money for a certain amount of time. E.g. children under 18 or under 25 while in college

I want to stress again that this system is far from perfect and smart folks will save up in a capital based system as well (and there are tax incentives for this, especially for low earners) but it does guarantee a good baseline retirement for folks who worked all their lives that can’t be lost. No divorce, personal bankruptcy or anything else will be able to touch this money.

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