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Pyrrhic Victory

granolashotgun.com

121–130 of 180 posts

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#121

> I’m 52 and have never had a cavity What? Certainly that can't be true.

There's a big genetic component to oral health, such as the DEFB1 gene.

Some people are lucky and never get cavities.

Others are unlucky and need constant fillings despite a stringent oral health regimen.

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#122
post #3

Two parts of this short and powerful piece really leapt out at me: > all under the auspices of a hard line Republican administration > Washington under any administration will have no choice but to bail out all the state and local agencies and every insolvent pension scheme wholesale There are underlying problems being forced to the surface by COVID that go deeper than political parties. Somewhere between the 1970s a…

Well yeah I think even I bought into it at some point. The line would go "as long as our debt to GDP ratio stays relatively steady, we'll be ok"...but what happens if another great depression happens and the growth dips 10-15% and flat lines from there? Then your debt will grow faster than your GDP and eventually it will crush the economy. All the uncomfortable conversations about complex trade-offs and budget cuts h…

Why do you think we maintain the world’s largest military by orders of magnitude?

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#123

Looking at those pictures from Norway I'm struck by how different our countries actions have been during this crisis. Here hardly anything is boarded up (even business that have failed or gone online-only just have an A4 notice in the window explaining the situation and apologizing for the lack of service), and even when things were at their worst there were still people in the streets, a lot of shops, offices, and i…

I'm starting to see local businesses in my major cities close shop permanently, and I am seeing even some large businesses host going-out-of-business sales. This is merely the pre-stage. Its about to get much, much worse. The corporate news is currently reporting on the corruption surrounding the US relief funds, but I posit that the while corruption is there, the real reason that they aren't releasing the data is because it will show that a critical mass of the US economy is completely underwater and is being floated with zombie loans while the government shits itself, telling their good buddies when to sell and when the public will know, postulating how they're going to spin the complete and utter failure of conservative economic policy. Combine this with ~1/3 of the country unemployed with little sign of relief, state's budgets buckling, and states panicking to throw people off unemployment, so they're about to be literally starving and homeless.

The Hacker News crowd doesn't see it coming. Give them a few months; they'll start to be personally affected by it, which will trigger an inescapable realization. I see it coming: the next great depression. There are many creative ways to stop it, and they all involve re-distributions of wealth because that is essentially the root of the problem: the finance, make-believe funny-money & assets have no value, and we've starved the buyer, so no one has incentives to trade anymore. Great job! Hope your ideologies were worth it. And, when people are dying, instead of blaming some "natural" phenomenon that totally "naturally" occurs, blame yourselves!

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#124

We're in the midst of an unprecedented effort to time-shift wealth/money/value. Never before in history have we attempted to store wealth at this scale for things like retirement. In a world that was continually growing at a pretty solid pace (i.e. since WW2) that was sort-of conceivable because the bigger next generation effectively created more space for that. But now people live, and retire, for muuuuuccchhhh long…

What does it look like 20-30 years from now when potential advances in the biosciences extend the average lifetime by 20 years?

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In March of 1971 the house eliminated "teller votes", where representatives' votes on amendments to bills were private; the system then moved to recorded votes, initially with red/green cards, and then in 1973 with electronic votes. After March of 1971, the public could learn exactly which representatives voted for exactly which amendments. In practice, this accountability change meant that lobbyists and their client…

This is a very unpopular opinion, but transparency is not necessarily a good thing.

If I had to pick between transparency and lobbying (in its current form), I'd take transparency.

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#126

It is interesting how different countries and cultures deal with the same challenge. Streets were pretty empty and shops were closed for maybe a month here in Germany. Now (almost) everything is open again, the streets are full. Unemployment rose somewhat but not catastrophically. The images and videos we get from the US feel apocalyptical in contrast.

Unemployment in Germany didn't go up much because they reclassified the "unemployed" as "furloughed". The end result is the same though, recipients are living entirely off government assistance.

7.3 million germans are currently fourloughed. That is 21% of the workforce!

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#127
post #21

The FED is buying out every asset in existence, that means that there aren't any markets, any prices, everything is state-owned and the economy is entirely socialized, and it's now the "USSA". Stock markets are surfing the wave to grab as much as possible before the inevitable crash and collapse. No wonder the IMF head said we need a "Great Reset". This can't end well...

You realize the Fed isn't controlled by the government, right? Some of the leaders are selected, but the decisions CAN (not necessarily are) made without consultation of any of the branches of government. Besides the oversight of the leadership, there is no power granted to the branches of government into the Fed's decisions.

Unfortunately not 100% true, especially after the CARES act.

Under the CARES Act, there is a huge chunk of money that the Treasury is obligated to back into Fed assets. Specifically "investments in programs or facilities established by" the Fed.

So on one hand, the Treasury is obligated to invest (buy) assets from the Fed. The Fed has some leeway in what it sets up, but the bill also states that the Treasury can attach “such terms and conditions . . . as the Secretary determines appropriate.” So, in essence, the Secretary of the Treasury gets final say in what the Fed sets up.

Therefore, what is actually going on is the Treasury can say "Fed, go buy up assets X" and then hands them the money from the CARES Act to do so. Or, in other words, now the Fed is acting as a banking institution for the Treasury.

https://www.brookings.edu/research/explaining-the-new-fed-tr...

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#128

Looking at those pictures from Norway I'm struck by how different our countries actions have been during this crisis. Here hardly anything is boarded up (even business that have failed or gone online-only just have an A4 notice in the window explaining the situation and apologizing for the lack of service), and even when things were at their worst there were still people in the streets, a lot of shops, offices, and i…

I'm starting to see local businesses in my major cities close shop permanently, and I am seeing even some large businesses host going-out-of-business sales. This is merely the pre-stage. Its about to get much, much worse. The corporate news is currently reporting on the corruption surrounding the US relief funds, but I posit that the while corruption is there, the real reason that they aren't releasing the data is be…

This is fear mongering driven by obvious ideological bias. Sure, things may get worse than they are now, but you have no evidence of the scale of the problem, just as you have no evidence that socialism or “wealth re-distribution” will make anything better.

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#129
post #15

You ought to see Atlanta. We have more people outside now than even live in the city. The yuppie dog parks with membership fees and booze have waiting lines. Consequently, you should also take a look at the Georgia coronavirus case volume. But it's as if nobody gives a damn.

The people that have some savings are currently treating this like a mini-vacation, and they are about to wake up to a cruel, cruel reality soon. Ironically, these are the same people that are criticizing the rioting of starving or fearful-of-starving people in the same city. I wonder if they'll make the connection when they get to that point. Nah, they'll probably just embrace fascism. It's comforting to blame someone else, instead of looking down at your own hands to ask, "what have I wrought and defended"?

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is essentially what’s happening to Warren Buffett right now who has a war chest is billions of dollars saved up during the good times that he’s ready to invest now. But it’s not as viable a strategy because the government props everyone up. In all fairness, Berkshire Hathaway stepped in to bailout Bank of America. It obviously paid out handsomely for Buffett and Co. long term, just find it interesting to use a…

>In all fairness, Berkshire Hathaway stepped in to bailout Bank of America. It obviously paid out handsomely for Buffett and Co. long term, just find it interesting to use as an example. Private capital does not "bail out" companies. That's called an investment.

I agree, I mixed up BoA with Goldman.

Instead should have mentioned his investment in Goldman--not BoA--during the financial crisis, which he did counting on the bailout that was passed shortly after.

I don't believe it's too much of a leap to conclude that back in 2008 it was as close as possible to a joint effort between BRK/Goldman/the-financial-powers-that-be to minimize the total obligation GS would have to the Treasury from TARP funds.

Read somewhere the TARP investment was repaid 8 months later by GS with 23% interest, whereas they repurchased BRK's preferred stock for a 10% premium in 2011. BRK's warrant redemption in 2013 is another story, but easier for GS to account for long term.

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