Earlier quoted context omitted.
Both social distancing and herd immunity reduce the R factor. Thus nearly everyone may end up with the disease in NYC, but in less dense areas it can stamped out with vastly lower infection rates. That alone could make the difference between 70% vs 30% of the US population getting even with minimal precautions.
Yeah but no less dense area stands alone. One person from a more dense area visits a less dense area and we're right back at it.
It’s really a question of regional R factors under various levels of social distancing, population, and herd imminuty.