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Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

ir.tesla.com

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Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#121

Post by [deleted] »

Animats wrote: post #33
aguyfromnb wrote: post #4

Year-over-year revenue flat, year-over-year GAAP income down 25% on 20k more units delivered. Hard to understand...

Tesla is at breakeven. Marginally profitable for 2019, but R&D was cut by more than the difference between last year's loss and this year's profit. Still $26 billion in long term debt, up a bit from last year. Not clear on the terms on that. They had to agree to some awful terms about two years ago, but dodged the bullet on some of those. Read the numbers on page 21-22 first, of course.

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#122

Post by tempsy »

lucasmullens wrote: post #119
tempsy wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I call BS. There's no casino game outside of a slot machine that someone could play that could turn a few hundred dollars into $1M in a gambling session. This difference you're missing is the upside is asymmetric with options. Your losses are capped but your gains are essentially unlimited. In a typical casino game the house edge is >50%. If you're turning $500 into $1M at a blackjack or craps table you're cheating.

Can't you go all-in 12 times to get there? It would only work for one out a few thousand people, but it's certainly possible.

uh find me one real life example of someone doing that and succeeding.

on a craps table there's no bet that has no house advantage other than the behind the line bet. Same with roulette.

and no, usually these tables have max bets, so it wouldn't be possible, if you had got to $500k (somehow), to bet that on a single bet.

again, the difference is the upside is asymmetric with options. also it's never an all or nothing bet like a coin flip - if your option value goes in the wrong direction you can sell for a partial loss.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#124

Post by _ea1k »

DennisP wrote: post #16
dgritsko wrote: post #2

Model Y production ramp started in January, ahead of schedule. Deliveries expected to start before the end of Q1. Exciting stuff!

I was happy to see they'd increased range to 315 miles.

OTOH, they killed the RWD version. That likely would have had an even longer range, and certainly had a lower cost.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#125

Post by reitzensteinm »

adventured wrote: post #105
xkjkls wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ford was making a profit when the Model T existed. Tesla isn't.

False. Tesla earned a net and operating profit this quarter and last and looks set to continue the trend toward consistent profitability as they roll out their more profitable position in China. They've reached a sales scale where their operating income is annualizing to well over a billion dollars per year. Operating income was $359 million this quarter, and $620 million combined for the two most recent quarters. Fr…

While you can easily make a good argument that Tesla will be profitable from now on based on extrapolation, given that they lost money ($862 million) in 2019 your declaration of "False." like it's an open and shut case is misplaced (and rude).

Parent cherry picked the facts for his argument, you cherry picked yours, neither of you have objective truth on your side. FWIW, I lean towards your argument more than theirs.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#126

Post by lazyjones »

slg wrote: post #25

I have been a longtime bull, but their stock value is now up over 140% in the last 3 months and I can't say I fully understand why.

Same here. Perhaps it's Chinese investors getting on the bandwagon, perhaps the short squeeze, or even an attempt by someone to get a significant chunk of Tesla for strategic reasons. It's futile to try to come up with any scenario where this could be considered a reasonable valuation by traditional standards, I tried.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#127

Post by lazyjones »

saghm wrote: post #112
heisenbergs wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

simple back of the envelope calculation: in 3 years time, they will have 3 giga factories (+1 in upstate new york), each of which should be scale to 500k cars. at an average resale price of $50k (might be a little lower, but let's keep it simple), that's $75B in revenue. at a 10% profit margin, that's $7.5B profit. let's presume a 20x factor as a growth stock, you have an evaluation of $150B, which it's currently tre…

This also assumes that there's demand for all of these $50,000 cars, which isn't necessarily the case.

I'm sure there is, if you consider all the climate politics ramping up. Politicians, officials, other virtue signallers will prefer to be seen in EV soon.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#128

Post by xedeon »

xkjkls wrote: post #75
Animats wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is at breakeven. Marginally profitable for 2019, but R&D was cut by more than the difference between last year's loss and this year's profit. Still $26 billion in long term debt, up a bit from last year. Not clear on the terms on that. They had to agree to some awful terms about two years ago, but dodged the bullet on some of those. Read the numbers on page 21-22 first, of course.

They weren't profitable in 2019 though.

This is false. https://qz.com/1734436/tesla-turns-a-profit/

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#130

Post by bduerst »

tempsy wrote: post #122
lucasmullens wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can't you go all-in 12 times to get there? It would only work for one out a few thousand people, but it's certainly possible.

uh find me one real life example of someone doing that and succeeding. on a craps table there's no bet that has no house advantage other than the behind the line bet. Same with roulette. and no, usually these tables have max bets, so it wouldn't be possible, if you had got to $500k (somehow), to bet that on a single bet. again, the difference is the upside is asymmetric with options. also it's never an all or nothing…

12 second search: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWok7813jZU

Splitting hairs over whether or not it's in a casino isn't really a requirement to being gambling, which is kind of the point.

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