Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale • Hacker News Board

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#121

Post by petrocrat » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 4:30 PM UTC

pnako wrote: post #34

beefield wrote: post #24

I'm quite tired of the framing of the climate change discussion, whether it exists or not. It is like you pondering whether your house is going to actually burn next year or not when you think about purchasing insurance. Completely idiotic question. What you are thinking is the risk (i.e probability times loss) of your house burning. So no, I am not going to tell you that the climate catastrophe is going to happen. W…

I don't think many people ignore the science. Quite a few of us do ignore the over-the-top doom saying and fear mongering, and the patronizing tone.

It's fine to ignore those parts as long as you still vote and advocate for increased funding to renewable & no-carbon energy deployment and reduced tax incentives for legacy fuel generation (i.e. the depletion allowance, which is solely afforded to fossil fuel extractors).

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#122

Post by Consultant32452 » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 4:31 PM UTC

windexh8er wrote: post #116

Consultant32452 wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If we don't start we all lose. I didn't suggest we don't start. I suggested the "everyone pass laws" plan has a fatal flaw the size of China and India. >your get on board or be destroyed is counterproductive and irrational. That's not my plan, it's yours. "Laws" are the get on board or be destroyed approach. You can do it domestically pretty easy, but it's much harder across national boundaries. >Heavy, one off, pol…

> Choose your poison: bomb them to oblivion or sanction/starve them to death. That is why this is a failed approach. >That's not my plan, it's yours. Really? If you want to try and give your argument legs at least try not to contradict yourself in the same thread. And please don't state I made a claim falsely. Also... >China is on track to double its emissions by 2030 This isn't actually true [0]. [0] https://climate…

>Really? If you want to try and give your argument legs at least try not to contradict yourself in the same thread. And please don't state I made a claim falsely.

I was explaining how the "we're all just going to pass laws" plan is the plan which leads to violence. You even copied the part where I said "That is why this is a failed approach."

>This isn't actually true [0].

The report I was reading is from 2009. If you include its emissions from deforestation and farming (as much as 1/3 of its emissions) it's still very closely on track.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/China-to-Double-P...

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#123

Post by bamboozled » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 4:32 PM UTC

lazyjones wrote: post #111

Taniwha wrote: post #13

Australia is burning, its government doesn't seem to think anything is wrong, they just want to dig more coal

Australia is burning every year. The main reason why it's burning so much right now is that not enough prescribed burns were done earlier in the season.

The reason it’s burning so much now is it’s hotter and drier than before?

I can’t imagine prescribed burns would’ve made it rain and stopped the temperature from reaching 48.9 in Sydney, can you ?

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#124

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 4:42 PM UTC

K0SM0S wrote: post #119

kmlx wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i think we've been adapting to our ecosystem since humans first came into the scene. the only difference now is that we finally realised we're living on a planet that's not constant, but actually changing. this realisation is a positive in my book, as an extinction level event is always around the corner. re. how many will die: the plague has been constantly killing humans for almost 1000 years now. and we're still h…

I pretty much share all your views, here. My everlasting-optimism is only tempered by a somewhat keen awareness of that Fermi paradox thingy, a Darwinian observation that species just disappear and the world just keeps spinning. I think the greatest invincible filter — one we just couldn't overcome — is the idea of a fatal flaw in our genetic make-up, or relatingly in the evolution of our environment, that we simply…

[deleted]

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#125

Post by X0Refraction » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 4:45 PM UTC

Consultant32452 wrote: post #117

X0Refraction wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's turn this around, if the markets that China sell to implement tariff's dependent on fossil fuel usage what do you expect them to do? How do you expect them to "fight" that? Do you expect they'll just give up selling to those markets entirely? That would lead to less manufacturing in China and a reduction in carbon output from the country. Manufacturing in the US/EU etc. would likely take up some of the slack, b…

I expect China, Russia, India, the US and others to lie. I expect them to steal. I expect them to sabotage. I expect them to wage economic and kinetic wars. I expect them to do everything in their power, evil or not, to give themselves an economic advantage. Tariffs of the sort you're talking about are a great way to nudge countries in the right direction. China is already the largest polluter and is on track to doub…

Oh don't get me wrong, I think it's a fantasy even that the US/EU would implement a carbon tax on imports like this in the next decade anyway. It's too easy for us to offload the problem elsewhere and then do nothing because "we're nothing compared to China" even though our consumption drives their emissions.

I'm just looking for more realistic methods to slow emissions, I think it's more likely a carbon tax will be implemented than Western nations going to war over emissions, so I'll push for the more likely scenario that will slow the problem hopefully enough that I won't have to suffer the worst of the consequences.

Honestly though, my wife and I have decided against having children because we believe there's a high enough chance they won't have the quality of life we've been able to enjoy, so I agree with you that nothing significant will be done in time to curb the problem.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#126

Post by buboard » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 4:55 PM UTC

mistermann wrote: post #82

buboard wrote: post #35

it would be naive/foolish to expect that the enormous technological progress and overpopulation by humans would not affect the environment. The question is how fast can people and ecosystems adapt. This is not the first nor the biggest change the earth has seen by far. It's also naive to think that politics is going to reverse that change - it's a technological problem.

> It's also naive to think that politics is going to reverse that change - it's a technological problem. The problem itself is technological, but do you believe the solution is (solely) technological? Considering the technical aspect of the problem is well enough understood, if politics "can't" fix this, then what's plan B?

> but do you believe the solution is (solely) technological?

Largely yes. Technological solutions are definite and verifiable. Political solutions (behavioral coercion) is rarely so, you never know the adverse effects of pushing people to do X. Politics creates too much tension, too much expenditure of energy on things that have little effect, while technology multipliers can be huge. And they lose credibility easily because of the co-opting of environmental issues for political posturing (e.g. the twice-a-month-moving-to Strasbourg European Parliament declaring a climate emergency)

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#127

Post by akvadrako » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 5:17 PM UTC

manigandham wrote: post #118

akvadrako wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is almost reasonable. But it's still naturalistic thinking, i.e. whatever happens without humans is good. The real questions should be: what climate do we want and how much power do we have to effect it? If the climate changes naturally but we don't want it and can stop it, maybe we should. For example, we expect this interglacial period to end between years 10k - 30k, corresponding to about a 10°C drop. Also, t…

> " how much power do we have to effect it " This is entirely predicated on understanding how much we have affected it so far and how that effect has changed over time. How do we know we can stop it? Are efforts toward stopping it (given the Earth has gone through cycles before) more useful than adapting? Blindly saying we can reverse something that we can't and instead should be adapting for is just as bad. Unfortun…

> This is entirely predicated on understanding how much we have affected it so far

Obviously, this isn't true. It's possible to have a future effect on things you haven't yet changed and visa versa.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#128

Post by kmlx » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 5:43 PM UTC

K0SM0S wrote: post #119

kmlx wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i think we've been adapting to our ecosystem since humans first came into the scene. the only difference now is that we finally realised we're living on a planet that's not constant, but actually changing. this realisation is a positive in my book, as an extinction level event is always around the corner. re. how many will die: the plague has been constantly killing humans for almost 1000 years now. and we're still h…

I pretty much share all your views, here. My everlasting-optimism is only tempered by a somewhat keen awareness of that Fermi paradox thingy, a Darwinian observation that species just disappear and the world just keeps spinning. I think the greatest invincible filter — one we just couldn't overcome — is the idea of a fatal flaw in our genetic make-up, or relatingly in the evolution of our environment, that we simply…

I think the Fermi paradox is BS. we're stuck on this small planet, never having set foot on another planet, nevermind another solar system. we haven't even encountered a single, no matter how small, alien life. and yet we come up with these naive theories. this tells me we're simply not ready for the possibilities that await us out there. maybe in the future.

and since you asked about the future, i want my "self" to be moved to a computer, set to sleep mode and then woken up once it reaches alpha centauri or something similarly far away. no body, no problems. right now that's pretty much the only way to discover anything light years away without our Earth-bound energy converter aka human body that comes with a billion dependencies and dramatically tiny life span.

but we're really discussing sci fi stuff. i hope that in the meantime the global warming fight will not drag the whole earth back a few hundred years instead of fixing by innovation.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#129

Post by manigandham » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 5:45 PM UTC

akvadrako wrote: post #127

manigandham wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> " how much power do we have to effect it " This is entirely predicated on understanding how much we have affected it so far and how that effect has changed over time. How do we know we can stop it? Are efforts toward stopping it (given the Earth has gone through cycles before) more useful than adapting? Blindly saying we can reverse something that we can't and instead should be adapting for is just as bad. Unfortun…

> This is entirely predicated on understanding how much we have affected it so far Obviously, this isn't true. It's possible to have a future effect on things you haven't yet changed and visa versa.

I never said it's not possible. I'm asking how do we know how much we can effect it in the future if we're not entirely clear on how much we've affected it so far and how that effect has changed itself?

Or do you already have an answer to the 2nd question you posed?

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#130

Post by singularity2001 » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 5:50 PM UTC

exdsq wrote: post #96

nl wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Charitable, Ufa in Russia gets pretty close: https://weatherspark.com/h/y/148894/1990/Historical-Weather-...

And that is litterally as east in Europe one can go - I honestly didn’t realise how far into Russia you can go before crossing the Ural Mountains.

Temperature rising ~2°C/century:

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Temperature+in+ufa

linear trend: 0.021 °C/yr±0.016 °C/yr (48 yr/°C)

low: -47 °C 1979 | average high: | 35 °C average low: | -35 °C | high: 39 °C 1952, ...