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A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

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Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#121

Post by Jamwinner »

drcross wrote: post #11
jacquesm wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a complete nobrainer. Right now the bulk of the cars are single occupant. That's because it is the occupants going places, not the cars. As soon as self-driving cars are a reality it will be the cars going places that get added to all the other traffic already there.

This is why I keep a keen eye on single occupancy vehicles. They will be the ultimate form of transportation and we haven't decided upon a good model design yet (think Renault twizy)

I own a couple 2 seaters, and even that amount of reduced functionality with similar emissions seems dumb. This would only work if you did not value proximity to your friends and family.

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#122

Post by mcguire »

kjksf wrote: post #57
Someone wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

”The cars would no longer be an expression of personality and a status symbol” You’re not the only one claiming that, but I don’t think it automatically follows. People can currently afford to buy cars for themselves, so unless self-driving cars will be (much) more expensive, people still would be able to afford them. So, in this case, the question is what else, if anything, people would want to use their money on in…

When you use X and then a substitute Y arrives that is 10x cheaper and more convenient, you'll switch to it. Using robotaxi network will be much cheaper than total cost of owning a car, mostly because cars are dramatically underutilized. On average a car is used 1-2 hrs a day out of 12-16 hrs it could be used as a robotaxi. To start off we have 5-7x price difference. Then most use is not shared. Assuming robotaxis wi…

Then, when Tesla owns the personal transportation market, they can raise prices to satisfy their stock valuation. It's brilliant!

:-)

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#123

Post by spc476 »

Supermancho wrote: post #97
CydeWeys wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The congestion problem is mostly overblown. It's really not. Congestion is a huge problem already, and increasing the current road utilization by 83% will bring entire cities to a standstill for the entirety of waking hours. > I just eyeballed but ~80% cars were single person. Yes, and in the AV future the majority of cars on the road will have zero occupants, so things will get much, much worse as far as how many…

> Yes, and in the AV future the majority of cars on the road will have zero occupants Where do you get that idea from? or maybe, how did you come to that conclusion? It's not evident that would be the case. Traffic mirrors demand. Demand goes both ways, unevenly. Prior to the end-of-the-work-day, you would see an increase in empty vehicles consolidating for the imminent exodus of a city, but that would hardly be the…

So here's a hypothetical scenario. Car drives kids to school (in my experience, school tends to start before work). Drives back empty to pick up parent to drive to work. In the afternoon, car drives (empty) to pick up kids and drive them home, then drives (empty) back to work to pick up the parent. Half the time it's empty.

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#124

Post by ralphc »

cookie_monsta wrote: post #104
kjksf wrote: post #3

Here's what this research tells me: demand for transportation is much higher than the current use of transportation. Current use is limited by cost and convenience. Self-driving car is likely to fix both so it'll lead to more use of transportation. This is a good thing. We're currently deprived and if things go well, we'll get more of what we want. The congestion problem is mostly overblown. First, maybe with rare ex…

> the traffic is only bad during rush hour This would be ok if the rush hour actually lasted 60 minutes. In my city (pop ~6M) it goes from somewhere between 7-10am and 4-7pm with a little spike around lunchtime. I don't work downtown and have the luxury of scheduling most of my driving as I please, so I nearly always opt for around 8pm. Being that my city is playing catch up trying to ease rush hour congestion, I oft…

I was thinking you were talking about Atlanta until you mentioned traffic being light at 8pm. A lot of times it takes later here, even out to the suburbs.

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#125

Post by whoisthemachine »

kjksf wrote: post #3

Here's what this research tells me: demand for transportation is much higher than the current use of transportation. Current use is limited by cost and convenience. Self-driving car is likely to fix both so it'll lead to more use of transportation. This is a good thing. We're currently deprived and if things go well, we'll get more of what we want. The congestion problem is mostly overblown. First, maybe with rare ex…

It's also highly possible that robotaxi companies would incentivize efficient use of their vehicles in order to drive costs down (and increase profits).

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#126

Post by dsfyu404ed »

spc476 wrote: post #123
Supermancho wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yes, and in the AV future the majority of cars on the road will have zero occupants Where do you get that idea from? or maybe, how did you come to that conclusion? It's not evident that would be the case. Traffic mirrors demand. Demand goes both ways, unevenly. Prior to the end-of-the-work-day, you would see an increase in empty vehicles consolidating for the imminent exodus of a city, but that would hardly be the…

So here's a hypothetical scenario. Car drives kids to school (in my experience, school tends to start before work). Drives back empty to pick up parent to drive to work. In the afternoon, car drives (empty) to pick up kids and drive them home, then drives (empty) back to work to pick up the parent. Half the time it's empty.

In your scenario the number of trips is the same but the car is more often empty because the parent doesn't have to chauffeur the kids around.

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#127

Post by glangdale »

jedberg wrote: post #80
desas wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At what point do electric vehicles make that untrue?

Depends on the state. California is now charging a much higher renewal rate for EVs specifically to make up for the loss of gas tax revenue.

Switching to flat fees up front to substitute for 'pay-as-you-go' will encourage more driving, not less. Once you've got a multi-thousand investment per year in having a car you may as well drive it. Gas taxes are flawed but at least relate somewhat to use.

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#128

Post by walshemj »

spodek wrote: post #84

> During just the single week people had chauffeurs for his study, he saw people already getting comfortable with their AV future. When the study ended, people begged him to keep the chauffeur longer and wondered how they could possibly go back to running their own errands again. This entitlement happened with flying. Try to suggest people fly less and they call it impossible.

That does sound like the upper classes saying no foreign holidays for the hoi polio - a return to wakes weeks.

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#129

Post by bcrosby95 »

CydeWeys wrote: post #58
maxerickson wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, their point is clear enough. My point is that the politics of landuse are hopeless enough that other mitigations will be more beneficial for quite some time to come.

I disagree, I think the politics of land use are more easily solvable than the simple physics problem of too many cars, not enough space. Plenty of other countries in the world (and even some US cities) have solved the land use problem to the point that most people don't use space-inefficient private vehicles to get around. It's solvable and there are working models to emulate. This is not true of your alternative.

It's not financially possible to fix this quickly. You're talking about tens of trillions of dollars in new housing, at a minimum. Then all the commercial, infrastructure, etc. on top of it.

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#130

Post by bbatha »

kjksf wrote: post #3

Here's what this research tells me: demand for transportation is much higher than the current use of transportation. Current use is limited by cost and convenience. Self-driving car is likely to fix both so it'll lead to more use of transportation. This is a good thing. We're currently deprived and if things go well, we'll get more of what we want. The congestion problem is mostly overblown. First, maybe with rare ex…

Another point on smaller cars. Robotaxis allow tuning the size of the car to the workload. Commuting? Two person car. Shopping with the family? Sedan. No need to make everyone pick a car that meets their general needs any longer.
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