Curious, how big do people think this will be? Will Apple double its US userbase or will it be an incremental bump? I tend to think incremental. The people in the US today who really want an iPhone have moved to ATT. The holdouts are those that: 1) Hate AT&T. 2) Are on a business plan who is tied to Verizon. 3) Those on a family plan, but aren't calling the shots. For most of the people in 1-3, they already have a Ve…
Somehow I get the feeling that they won't. Armchair observers opining on the internet have never felt the need to rely on data before. They've long since drawn their conclusions and simply shop for justification; freely inventing some if acceptable evidence doesn't present itself.
So no-one's mind is going to be changed, regardless.
If you were bullish and it tanks, then Apple's 'premium' segment is assumed to have already moved to ATT. If you were bearish and it takes off, then it's the usual "marketing" and "cult" arguments again. The very marks of 'tank' versus 'incremental' versus 'wild success' will be subjectively twisted all to high hell. It won't matter if Apple sells 6M or 12M.
Just watch the reactions when the inevitable avalanche of pre-orders and launch-day lines are reported. "macolyte" and "marketing circus" will get bandied about again, along with suggestions that once the early movement is cleared out then the real measuring of Apple's success on Verizon can begin...