121–130 of 142 posts
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But no car sold yet (or in the coming decade) will have close to “full autonomy”. Not even close.
He’s been promising otherwise.
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Elon is an eternal optimist that truly believes that the tech will catch up with his goals.
To be fair, though: Elon is shipping actual vehicles. I mean, I think the GM and Waymo offerings look great too, but I can't buy one. Even granting the premise that LiDAR is going to be a firm requirement, it's not clear to me that Tesla is actually behind the curve on real products. Adding a LiDAR system (or buying one from Waymo) to a Tesla seems naively simpler than finishing and shipping a whole new system from s…
GM is shipping millions of cars annually, with the same FSD capability as any Tesla on the road. That is: zero FSD capability.
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The handover will be after the car stops because it’s confused. If there is no cell network or no operator available the car is simply stranded on the side of the road, just as after a mechanical failure. Operators can’t help “unknown situations” while moving.
In many places like bridges, hills, and congested city streets there is literally no road shoulder, no safe place to stop. When existing cars break down in those locations they end up blocking a traffic lane and frequently get hit from the rear by a drunk or distracted driver.
It could also be possible for the occupants of the car (if it has any!) to pick up a smartphone and guide the car to safety if needed. Part of the attraction of autonomous vehicles is that if can operate without occupants, however.
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To be fair, though: Elon is shipping actual vehicles. I mean, I think the GM and Waymo offerings look great too, but I can't buy one. Even granting the premise that LiDAR is going to be a firm requirement, it's not clear to me that Tesla is actually behind the curve on real products. Adding a LiDAR system (or buying one from Waymo) to a Tesla seems naively simpler than finishing and shipping a whole new system from s…
It does make me sad that Tesla didn't just throw all the (affordable?) tech they could into their cars, and then figure it out later. Eg, it seems like they are taking the "figure it out later" approach, but they limited what they can work with to just camera information. Which to me is a shame. I'd like to see Tesla's model with lots of inputs. Then again, I don't ship these cars, so I'm probably being ignorant :)
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> taking consecutive frames (2D images) we can estimate per pixel depth Yeah, I find it odd that they're bringing up Elon's statement about LiDAR, but then completely ignore that they spoke about creating 3D models based on video. They even showed [0] how good of a 3d model they could create based on dat from their cameras. So they could just as well annotate in 3D. 0: https://youtu.be/Ucp0TTmvqOE?t=8217
Maybe I missed it, I only watched part of that 4 hour video, but why don't they do like humans do and geometrically construct a Z-buffer representation from 2 or more cameras. Then you'd get all that sweet, sweet depth data that lidar provides but cheaper and at a much higher resolution.
> One approach that has been discussed recently is to create a pointcloud using stereo cameras (similar to how our eyes use parallax to judge distance). So far this hasn’t proved to be a great alternative since you would need unrealistically high-resolution cameras to measure objects at any significant distance.
Doing some very rough math, assuming a pair of 4K cameras with 50 degree FOV on opposite sides of the vehicle (for maximum stereo separation) and assuming you could perfectly align the pixels from both cameras, it seems you could theoretically measure depth with a precision of +/-75 cm for an object 70 meters away (a typical braking distance at highway speeds.) In practice, I imagine most of the difficulty is in matching up the pixels from both cameras precisely enough.
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To be fair, though: Elon is shipping actual vehicles. I mean, I think the GM and Waymo offerings look great too, but I can't buy one. Even granting the premise that LiDAR is going to be a firm requirement, it's not clear to me that Tesla is actually behind the curve on real products. Adding a LiDAR system (or buying one from Waymo) to a Tesla seems naively simpler than finishing and shipping a whole new system from s…
In that situation, what do you think would happen to customers who've paid $6000 for the 'Full Self-Driving Capability' ?
Less optimistic, people will probably be less eager to upgrade once those cars are several generations old by the point FSD will actually be available.
[0] https://www.theverge.com/2019/7/8/20685873/tesla-fsd-chip-up...
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He’s been promising otherwise.
Hopefully no one bought a car hoping it will magically be “fully autonomous” in the future, given that no one knows whether it will even be possible with a research vehicle in 10 years
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To be fair, though: Elon is shipping actual vehicles. I mean, I think the GM and Waymo offerings look great too, but I can't buy one. Even granting the premise that LiDAR is going to be a firm requirement, it's not clear to me that Tesla is actually behind the curve on real products. Adding a LiDAR system (or buying one from Waymo) to a Tesla seems naively simpler than finishing and shipping a whole new system from s…
> Elon is shipping actual vehicles. I mean, I think the GM and Waymo offerings look great too, but I can't buy one. GM is shipping millions of cars annually, with the same FSD capability as any Tesla on the road. That is: zero FSD capability.
This is ignoring the Elephant in the room: The AI is not good enough often enough for general purpose AVs. In restricted settings it will be great (container terminals, warehouses...) but from every thing I have seen, from the outside as I am not a insider, the last little bit of safety seems unobtainable with neural networks. I so want to be wrong, and please tell me why I am. I want my next care to have a cocktail…
[1] https://www.theverge.com/2019/8/15/20805994/ups-self-driving...
What if we have sensors/cameras/etc along the road and they feed data to whichever car is there? And if we also have cars share their sensor data? Would that speed things up in terms of achieving full autonomy?
And in the end, your car has to be able to come to a safe stop and avoid dangers no matter the situation. Even with no other cars around or communication interrupted. To reliably achieve this will probably get you most of the way to "real" self driving, with humans/remote operators manually taking care of the few remaining cases.