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Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

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Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#121
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It comes down to whether you believe AGI is achievable. No, it does not. I very much believe AI (or AGI, as you call it) is achievable, but may I remind you that some years after the invention of neural networks, Norbert Wiener, one of the greatest minds of his generations, said that the secret of intelligence would be unlocked within five years, and Alan Turing -- a component of your very own post-pre-AGI era's AG…

> and we are not even close to achieving insect-level intelligence. Aren't we close to this? Most insects only have a few million neurons in their central nervous system, so we can model their intelligence in real time at least. Maybe we still lack the tools for training such networks into useful configurations?

Yes, if you assume the technical model of each neuron only having one scalar output bfloat16, then we could simulate insect brains right now. But the technical neuron model of sum of inputs plus sigmoid activation function is only an approximation.

Neurons communicate with each other with a multitude of neurotransmitters and receptors [1]. As a cell, each neuron is a complex organism of its own that undergoes transcriptomic and metabolic changes. We aren't even close to simulating all protein interactions in a single cell yet, let alone in millions of them.

Of course you could say that full protein simulation of an entire brain is not neccessary if we can build an accurate enough technical model of a single neuron. In fact, already now we have to apply a model of how we believe proteins behave as "properly" simulating interactions of two proteins (or one with itself) with lattice QCD approaches is beyond our computational capabilities. For protein interaction we have pretty good models already. But finding a model of all types of neurons in insect brains is right now an open, unsolved challenge.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neurotransmitter#List_of_neuro...

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#123
post #102
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If your team ever gets frustrated by ARM, have them shoot me an email for my old proposal on how to fix it (source: used to work at Azure and perennially frustrated by ARM design)

I'm interested to hear more about this proposal! What problems does it aim to fix? Would you be willing to share?

Can I say "most of them"? Basically it simplifies ARM and the Azure API significantly and makes Azure operate more like "infrastructure as code". But I'd need to look at the latest version of Azure to see specifically what the remaining pain points are now. I could have a more specific conversation in a different setting.

I remember the first meetings about ARM when the resource IDs were presented, and a few people immediately asked "what if someone wants to rename a resource"? Years later you still could not do that (I'm hoping they've fixed that by now?).

It seemed to me that ARM was the result of some design by super smart committee, and got a lot wrong. When I was there more senior folks told me not to worry, that's just the Microsoft way (wait for version 3). I do have to admit that it's turning out they knew more than me (shocking!), as over time I've seen some of the stuff that was inexplicably terrible in v1 become much, much better in later versions.

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are and in a sense we know how they work. It's called swarm intelligence which does not even require neural nets to begin with. OP probably just wanted to downplay the current state of AI.

We still cannot convincingly model behaviour of even simplest individual organisms whose neural circuitry we know in minute detail.

What do you mean by "model behavior"? We have AI systems that can learn walking, running and other behavior with just trial and error, I would call that simple behavior.

Now here's a more advanced example to teach a virutal character how to flex in the gym: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kie4wjB1MCw

That's a bit more advanced than simple walking.

Here's a deployed AI to a real robot "crab":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMSNBLAfC7o

How about virtual characters learning to cooperate?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LmYKfU5O_NA

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#125
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once we know how a neuron works, ask again. I am not sure how this detail keeps getting glossed over.

You don't need planes to flap the wings in order to fly.

But you do need to understand that they generate lift, and be able to mathematically describe something that generates lift. The Wright brothers wrote to the Smithsonian in 1899 and got back, among other things, workable equations for lift and drag.

I think people think back propagation is the metaphorical lift equation here and we just need a “manufacturing” advancement (ie, more compute and techniques for using it). We’re close to that (I personally feel like with poor evidence) but definitely not there yet (as evidenced by nobody publishing this). We cannot describe what is happening with modern architectures as fully as a lift equation predicts fixed wing flight, and so it is largely an intuition + trial and error, which is a slow unreliable way to make progress.

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#126
post #71

anybody knows what happened to Elon Musk's pledge of $1B to OpenAI?

OpenAI Nonprofit’s initial funding commitment was to be consumed over many years!

When we started, we didn't know just how fast things would be moving (e.g. https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), and we've needed to scale much faster than planned when starting OpenAI.

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#127
post #76
post #40

Congrats on the investment, but this release reads like a parody. I believe that building a beneficial warp-drive engine will be the most important technological development in human history, with the potential to shape the trajectory of humanity. The aliens we're sure to encounter will be capable of mastering more fields than any one human — like a tool which combines the skills of Curie, Turing, and Bach. An alien…

(I work at OpenAI.) It comes down to whether you believe AGI is achievable. We've talked about why we think it might be: https://medium.com/syncedreview/openai-founder-short-term-ag... , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHCSNsLKHfM And we certainly have more of a plan for building it than warp drives :). EDIT: I personally think the case for near-term AGI is strong enough that it'd be hard for me work on any other pro…

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Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is all this talk of AGI some kind of marketing meme that you guys are tolerating? We haven't figured out sentiment analysis or convnets resilient to single pixel attacks, and here is a page talking about the god damned singularity. As an industry, we've already burned through a bunch of buzzwords that are now meaningless marketing-speak. 'ML', 'AI', 'NLP', 'cognitive computing'. Are we going for broke and adding AGI…

At what point would you deem it a good idea to start working on AGI safety? What "threshold" would you want to cross before you think its socially acceptable to put resources behind ensuring that humanity doesn't wipe itself out? The tricky thing with all of this is we have no idea what an appropriate timeline looks like. We might be 10 years away from the singularity, 1000 years, or it might never ever happen! There…

> At what point would you deem it a good idea to start working on AGI safety?

I don't know, but I'd say after a definition of "AGI" has been accepted that can be falsified against, and actually turn it into a scientific endeavour.

> The tricky thing with all of this is we have no idea what an appropriate timeline looks like.

We do. As things are it's undetermined, since we don't even know what's it's supposed to mean.

> So given all of that, wouldn't it make sense to start working on these problems now?

What problems? We can't even define the problems here with sufficient rigor. What's there to discuss?

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#129
post #32

Despite all the negativity in replies, I try to remain optimistic that this investment in AGI-related research is going to be a net positive. Congrats to the team, and break a leg!

Thank you!

Have you thought about using AI instead of parts of the government? There must be a lot of bits that can be automated. Do you think that an AI led government could remove the left/right divide that there is at the moment? If everyone just filled in a huge form that told the AI what was important to them, this could be used to drive policy.

Re: Microsoft is investing $1B in OpenAI

#130
post #81
post #40

Congrats on the investment, but this release reads like a parody. I believe that building a beneficial warp-drive engine will be the most important technological development in human history, with the potential to shape the trajectory of humanity. The aliens we're sure to encounter will be capable of mastering more fields than any one human — like a tool which combines the skills of Curie, Turing, and Bach. An alien…

This entire comment reads like an ad for a bike.

Just like the article reads like an ad-nouncement for Azure. I don't mind Azure or Microsoft, but that's what the PC was implying. Everyone has bikes (ai and all it's children) and they all want to sell it under the (sometimes implied) promise that it will get better over time.
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