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The BS-Industrial Complex of Phony A.I.

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Re: The BS-Industrial Complex of Phony A.I.

#121

Post by m0zg »

Quetelet wrote: post #98
m0zg wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but we did figure out how to make things more robust and generalizable, at least for perceptual tasks so far. Knowledge representation and probabilistic reasoning are still non-existent, though. Moreover, nobody is even working on any of that, for fear of being compared to Doug Lenat.

Representation learning and probabilistic methods are huge sub-areas of modern machine learning, just take a look at the proceedings of ICLR2019.

Representation learning != knowledge representation, probabilistic methods != probabilistic reasoning. I'm talking foundations of AGI, which as far as I'm aware, nobody is seriously working on at the moment.

Re: The BS-Industrial Complex of Phony A.I.

#122

Post by VBprogrammer »

solidasparagus wrote: post #85
atoav wrote: post #73

At the Biennale in Venice (one of the most important art shows there is) I saw a work which looked like this: There was a metal frame holding two glas plates with ventian sediment inbetween (sand, soil, mud). In the center there was another metal frame which formed a hole. There also were to PCB boards with ATMEGA micro controllers. In the text the artist claimed she controlled the biome of the soil with an AI using…

We might be headed for the trough of disillusionment, but in terms of technology and industry applications, we are still in the early phase of modern AI (big data + ML).

I'm doing a bit of hiring at the moment. It's hard to find a single CV which doesn't have some kind of machine learning slant. As much as I think there are plenty of advances in ML left to take, I doubt every graduate will step out into a good application for existing machine learning tools.

Re: The BS-Industrial Complex of Phony A.I.

#123

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

atoav wrote: post #51
pfisch wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How long until we could assemble an orchestra of computers that can interpret sheet music with feeling well enough to impress a human audience? I think AIs making music will come long before AAA games and movies, both of which encompass music as an art and then throw in like another 5 artistic pursuits on top. I think AIs will be making music inside 10-20 years or less. Honestly I think it could happen in like 1-2…

Note that the parent comment wrote interpret music not make it. I am a musician and there were already impressive algorithmic compositions in the 70s using Markov chains, and today we use machine learning to create something that resembles the works of J.S. Bach. But how is that creativity? Creativity means coming up with new and interesting things (and fair enough many musicians make quite uncreative decisions all t…

Interpretation - better than adequate, not necessarily world class - is a solved problem.

The heuristics for dynamics and tempo changes aren't particularly complicated. You can do a lot with fairly simple phrase recognition. You don't even need a full harmonic, melodic, and structural analysis.

Composition is a much harder problem - especially at the Bach level. And the state of the art is nowhere close to being able to produce satisfactory Bach-level compositions. (In spite of what David Cope says about his work.)

Re: The BS-Industrial Complex of Phony A.I.

#124

Post by misterman0 »

taurath wrote: post #92
yonkshi wrote: post #87

AGI is a gradient, not an arbitrary threshold. We are not capable of recreating human level intelligence yet, but our modern algorithms had become magnitudes better at generalization and sample efficiency. And this trend is not showing any signs of slowing down. Take PPO for example (powers the OpenAI 5 dota agent), the same algorithms can be used for robotic arms as it does with video games. Two completely different…

It’s a gradient but according to the marketers it’s basically going to overtake humanity any week now.

"AI any week now"

What marketers proclaim that? Are they saying that or are they saying there is _utility_ in AI, now? Because me thinks, there is real utility, now, but it's going to take years until it overtakes us. Years!

Re: The BS-Industrial Complex of Phony A.I.

#125

Post by 0xfaded »

tintor wrote: post #72
dreamcompiler wrote: post #32

This happened right before the first AI Winter in the late 80s: AI (in the form of expert systems) solved a number of hard problems and was hyped as being able to solve every problem. Reality set in when we figured out: 1. It didn't scale and 2. Getting 80% of the problem solved was easy, but getting that last 20% was very, very hard. Maybe several orders of magnitude harder than the first 80%. Nowadays we don't seem…

AGI is not needed for self-driving. None of what is mentioned above is a deal-breaker for self-driving car service: - lidar at night works just fine - plenty of cities with no or very little snow - construction zones: blacklisting, remote monitoring & manual mapping, detection of cones, barriers, re-painted lanes - self-driving cars with 360 degree view and plenty of patience and no distraction are safer for bicyclis…

A standardized QR code printed on cones to say "construction ahead do this" seems relatively simple compared to correctly interpreting the construction site. Would also produce automatically labeled training data

Re: The BS-Industrial Complex of Phony A.I.

#126

Post by lsc »

AstralStorm wrote: post #109
lsc wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Is consciousness a necessary component for AGI, though? I always thought so. Like, without volition, it's just a really good natural language tool, and not a general intelligence. What would an artificial general intelligence without consciousness look like to you?

A really efficient slave. Essentially it does not get creative and is ultimately predictable, even in failure modes. It would also have no subconscious drives to do unexpected things. Capitalistic dream.

without creativity... I don't think it would make for a very effective slave in a world that is constantly changing.

Is creativity possible without consciousness? I don't pretend to be an expert.

Re: The BS-Industrial Complex of Phony A.I.

#127

Post by AstralStorm »

TomVDB wrote: post #38
rhacker wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I kinda see it this way: AGI is Data in Star Trek TNG - trying to be human, making decisions to want to be alive, eventually dreaming and finally using an emotion chip. Another alternative here would be Moriarty or the various doctors in Voyager. AI is the Ship in TNG - lots of heuristics to figure out what the user is trying to do. Past usage of commands and relating major events outside the ship with algorithms for…

Your comment reminds me of this xkcd cartoon: https://xkcd.com/1425/ It's 5 years old now (coincidentally the time span quoted to develop a solution), but recognizing a bird was already considered a solved problem 3 years ago, less than 2 years after the publication of the cartoon. Predicting the future is hard.

Surprisingly, recognizing a bird is much harder when you count rare species and running birds. Thus, sparse data. Does it recognize penguins too?

AIs today still fail at it. Some folks were trying to train one to match endangered species and they had to pull mighty tricks to have some 70% accuracy. I think it was here on HN some time ago, but can't recall a link.

Re: The BS-Industrial Complex of Phony A.I.

#128

Post by AstralStorm »

lsc wrote: post #126
AstralStorm wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A really efficient slave. Essentially it does not get creative and is ultimately predictable, even in failure modes. It would also have no subconscious drives to do unexpected things. Capitalistic dream.

without creativity... I don't think it would make for a very effective slave in a world that is constantly changing. Is creativity possible without consciousness? I don't pretend to be an expert.

Probably possible, yes. Subconscious drives are a thing. You could have sentience without consciousness. (The difference is that consciousness can change or modify drives and recognize its own actions on the world - its own agency. It is related to sentience and the line between the two is thin and blurry.) I'm not sure it is possible to be conscious without having been at some point sentient.

The idea was that such an AI would never question its priorities or change them, not that it wouldn't be able to solve novel problems.

(Which is the definition of intelligence, duh. And shows how far we're from that. What we have is glorified pattern matching algorithms and some basic symbolic logic and clustering.)

Re: The BS-Industrial Complex of Phony A.I.

#129

Post by ecmascript »

I think honestly think westworld (yes the tv-series) has the best explanation of why general intelligence is a hard problem to solve.

They mention consciousness but I think the same apply to intelligence in general. Humans in my mind aren't different from say a program you write except that we have a lot more input and possible outputs depending on a much larger variant of external variables.

If we could build machines that have eyesight just as we do, muscles just as we do etc I'm sure we could reverse-engineer the human being.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S94ETUiMZwQ

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