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Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

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Re: Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

#121

Post by mhermher »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #54
FireBeyond wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Other than the "The car will be able to self-drive, coast to coast, this year" back in Jan/Feb, you mean?

It’s not unreasonable to heavily critique the fact that Tesla deadlines are blown repeatedly, and yet who among us has gone from 0 to 300k+ vehicles manufacturer and sold per year in 12 years and delivered an EV into an elliptical orbit with a privately developed heavy lift vehicle? Don’t say something is impossible while someone else is delivering, slowly and missed deadlines or not. @sbov (deleted reply while I was…

If you get enough other-people's-money, is it really that hard to do? How much have the cumulatively burned now?

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

#122

Post by leesec »

dwighttk wrote: post #117
leesec wrote: post #112

Once again I gotta say the negativity is astounding. People are so stoked to be rooting for this American tech company to fail. I really don't get it. The main gripe I see is that Tesla misses deadlines or makes promises they cannot fulfill. Is this not super common in nearly every industry? Have none of you missed deadlines? I remember this article[1]from last year stating GM would release fully autonomous cars with…

>They already have cars driving people 95% of their miles I'm skeptical. I'd be surprised if more than 40% of my miles were freeway. Call me when we have fully autonomous trains and then I'll start thinking about losing my skepticism about autonomous cars.

>I'm skeptical. I'd be surprised if more than 40% of my miles were freeway.

I didn't mean this was the average but I probably should have said commutes. My commute is nearly all highway and I basically don't touch the car from on-ramp to exit-ramp.

>Call me when we have fully autonomous trains and then I'll start thinking about losing my skepticism about autonomous cars.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automated_urban_metro_...

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

#123

Post by wil421 »

leesec wrote: post #112

Once again I gotta say the negativity is astounding. People are so stoked to be rooting for this American tech company to fail. I really don't get it. The main gripe I see is that Tesla misses deadlines or makes promises they cannot fulfill. Is this not super common in nearly every industry? Have none of you missed deadlines? I remember this article[1]from last year stating GM would release fully autonomous cars with…

People don’t want them to fail. Some are frustrated by the overpromises and Self Driving vaporware Elon has been pushing for years. I’d be fine with Tesla saying they will be the best electric car company in the world with best in class Driver Assist but I guess that’s what CEOs do.

I plan to buy a Tesla in 2-3 years I just hope they can get their pricing and production streamlined before I do otherwise I’ll buy something German.

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

#124

Post by trickstra »

mhermher wrote: post #114
trickstra wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Were you also skeptical about landing orbital rockets 5 years ago?

Wasnt that done in the 90s? Why be skeptical it could be done?

I don't know, you tell me... "The SpaceX ORBCOMM-2 Mission successfully landed the first stage of a rocket during an orbital launch, a feat never before accomplished."

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

#125

Post by kreetx »

leesec wrote: post #112

Once again I gotta say the negativity is astounding. People are so stoked to be rooting for this American tech company to fail. I really don't get it. The main gripe I see is that Tesla misses deadlines or makes promises they cannot fulfill. Is this not super common in nearly every industry? Have none of you missed deadlines? I remember this article[1]from last year stating GM would release fully autonomous cars with…

Regarding the negativity towards Tesla: IIRC the specific author, Edward Niedermeyer, has had this same type of tone before (which is why I remember). So I'd say this is not representative of some general attitude, but of this particular guy.

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

#126

Post by r_smart »

JustSomeNobody wrote: post #70
gibybo wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"full autonomy" means lots of different things to different people. Some people think of it as being able to drive anywhere at any time in any condition. This is unlikely to ever happen before AGI. What matters in Tesla's case is more likely being able to drive in some small number of places in specific circumstances without a physical driver in the vehicle (but possibly a remote one to handle unusual circumstances).…

> ...some small number of places in specific circumstances.. Airport parking/shuttle service. They could even augment the AI by using markers in the roadways. That's about as autonomous as we're going to get in the next decade.

Driving through airport terminals is possibly one of the most chaotic possible environments, with people almost suicidally throwing themselves in front of you, not to even speak of the cabs, double lane parking, security guards telling you to move and other things. It's probably one of the harder environments to automate for outside of inclement weather.

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

#127

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #120
SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There seems to be more than a few auto companies made in the last century[1]. I'm not saying he's not making these things better, but they existed previous to his invention - which bits of the lifter are completely novel? Complete automation would be entirely novel - it's not just a matter of finding a cheaper/better way to do it. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automobile_manufacture...

Novelty doesn't define success. No car company has previously existed that is scaling towards 500k EVs delivered per year, with the capability to manufacture 135GW of energy storage per year. The Horndale Power Reserve in Australia has not only saved Australian energy consumers tens of millions of dollars, but proved that utility scale energy storage could be rapidly deployed and is cost effective. If these problems…

Again, not saying the problems are easy, and that Tesla hasn't had success, I'm just saying in the case of the self driving car, novelty WILL define success. I'm saying this is a different category of problem for Tesla to solve compared to others.

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

#128

Post by leesec »

kreetx wrote: post #125
leesec wrote: post #112

Once again I gotta say the negativity is astounding. People are so stoked to be rooting for this American tech company to fail. I really don't get it. The main gripe I see is that Tesla misses deadlines or makes promises they cannot fulfill. Is this not super common in nearly every industry? Have none of you missed deadlines? I remember this article[1]from last year stating GM would release fully autonomous cars with…

Regarding the negativity towards Tesla: IIRC the specific author, Edward Niedermeyer, has had this same type of tone before (which is why I remember). So I'd say this is not representative of some general attitude, but of this particular guy.

Ahh, I actually understand the hit pieces. There is a lot of money to be made on Shorts if Tesla fails. I just don't understand the community of people who some how make being anti-Tesla a part of their identity.

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

#129

Post by danso »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #87
SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aren't those solved problems though? Like, you're talking manufacturing and scaling up production, and there are other examples of heavy lift vehicles. While they are absolutely great accomplishments, it's tweaks on previous formulas. There are no fully autonomous cars, he'd have to break entirely new ground for that.

> Aren't those solved problems though? Like, you're talking manufacturing and scaling up production, and there are other examples of heavy lift vehicles. While they are absolutely great accomplishments, it's tweaks on previous formulas. Not at all. I'm unaware of any other heavy lift vehicles developed by a non-government entity that fly for $90 million (versus Delta Heavy's $350 million cost) and are completely reus…

Your defense against Tesla’s missed deadlines is that its CEO is busy doing things with his other companies? The Obama administration also “shepherded” the massive EV subsidies that Tesla baked into its pricing.

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup

#130

Post by fucking_tragedy »

njarboe wrote: post #76
_red wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have yet speak to any experienced embedded developer who actually thinks "full autonomy" is remotely possible in the near/mid term. The suggestions that it is possible, seems to come mainly from junior developers and snake-oil salesman. We don't even have "full autonomous" trains, planes, or trucks yet.

Would an auto-car that crashed at a rate 1/10th of humans be a successful "full autonomous" vehicle? You could save 30000 lives a year in the US by deploying such vehicles and probably more due to knock-on effects. But that would be about 10 auto-car deaths/per day. No way that works with the current media. Unfortunately, it seems many people are not going to accept auto-cars with less than airplane like safety level…

> an auto-car that crashed at a rate 1/10th of humans

This is incredibly generous assumption, especially given the fact that cars with advertised Autopilot features, like Tesla's offerings, actually make accidents more likely[1][2]. Compared to the driver fatality rate in other luxury vehicles, Tesla's offerings nearly triple driver fatality[3].

This is like theorizing about a car that survives 99.9% of all impacts at any speed. It doesn't exist, nor is there any indication that it will exist, and it doesn't serve a purpose other than to prop up a contrived argument.

[1] https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02/in-2017-the-feds-said-t...

[2] https://driving.ca/tesla/model-s/auto-news/news/iihs-study-s...

[3] https://medium.com/@MidwesternHedgi/teslas-driver-fatality-r...

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