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Uber S-1

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Re: Uber S-1

#121
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ive heard from reliable sources 10% of Uber Eats revenue goes to McDonald’s (not promotionally, in revenue)

Wow, that many people are ordering delivery McDonald's? Maybe McDonald's should start delivery services in some markets itself then?

It does in parts of the world where costs are low. Over here it makes sense for them to let Uber/VCs subsidize the operation.

Re: Uber S-1

#122
post #35

So... Let me see if I have this straight: 1. Uber is unprofitable and the only way it can become profitable is to get SDC's 2. Uber is significantly (years) behind Waymo in the SDC space. 3. Waymo will launch SDC taxi services first meaning: - When it puts in an order for SDC components no one else is going to be buying in bulk and thus it can have effectively 100% of capacity of these specialized equipment makers -…

> can't imagine how Uber is worth anything If the operation doesn't make an economic profit, and if there isn't sufficient moat to defend the operation until it can become profitable, then I agree with you it's not worth anything. But in fact, Uber does have a massive moat -- its network of drivers and riders in thousands of cities around the world. No competitor is even close. It takes tremendous capital expenditure…

> its network of drivers and riders in thousands of cities around the world

Whose switching costs are virtually zero. smh

Re: Uber S-1

#123

Just a brief scan and it looks much healthier and diversified than Lyft. Of course far from a perfect business or anything. Their revenue is 5X Lyft's revenue. Doesn't look good for Lyft's stock to be honest. I wouldn't be surprised if after their first earnings release, Lyft stock goes below 40 USD.

They did really well with the CEO they recruited. From the outside, it seemed like he did a really exceptional job profitably growing Expedia.

When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.

                        --- Warren Buffett
Expedia makes money from advertising (12%), from bookings fees, and from buying blocks of hotel rooms at a discount then selling them for higher prices to their customers (66%). [1]

All of these revenue models are something that is pretty obvious how you make money at. And all of them are very different than crowd-sourcing rides for which it is not clear that the market prices is higher than the cost of providing the ride.

[1] https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/08/28/how-expedia-makes-...

Re: Uber S-1

#124

So... Let me see if I have this straight: 1. Uber is unprofitable and the only way it can become profitable is to get SDC's 2. Uber is significantly (years) behind Waymo in the SDC space. 3. Waymo will launch SDC taxi services first meaning: - When it puts in an order for SDC components no one else is going to be buying in bulk and thus it can have effectively 100% of capacity of these specialized equipment makers -…

It is going to be competing with other taxi/ride share services with all the cost advantages of SDC vehicles while its competitors are paying human drivers (and have basically no fat to cut from their current pricing)

It's going to be a very long time before self-driving cars are cheaper than cheap cars with human drivers. It's very possible that Uber might reach an acceptable level of self-driving capabilities before Waymo's paid off its investment in its first crop of self-driving cars.

Re: Uber S-1

#125
Rather than invest $10k in Uber, I went to the bank, got out $10k in singles, and burnt them in a garbage can in my back yard.

...this must be what disruption feels like.

EDIT: Okay, I have an ulterior motive. I work for CashBurn, we are super disrupting the venture capital space. We use machine learning, AI, and the cloud(TM) to build a drone that will fly to your house, break in, hoover up your cash, and set fire to it. Super.

By 2022, we are super optimistic that we will have aggressively disrupted the entire venture capital industry. No more wasteful spending on lawyers and investment managers...we cut out the middle man and burn your cash for you.

We are currently raising a Series A.

Re: Uber S-1

#126

Just a brief scan and it looks much healthier and diversified than Lyft. Of course far from a perfect business or anything. Their revenue is 5X Lyft's revenue. Doesn't look good for Lyft's stock to be honest. I wouldn't be surprised if after their first earnings release, Lyft stock goes below 40 USD.

They did really well with the CEO they recruited. From the outside, it seemed like he did a really exceptional job profitably growing Expedia.

Most importantly he hasn't had a single negative mention since he took over. the company had a couple bad things disclosed that were holdovers from the old regime, but none of it was his as far as we know. he also hasn't had any seriously positive news, but for uber no news is good news.

Re: Uber S-1

#127

So... Let me see if I have this straight: 1. Uber is unprofitable and the only way it can become profitable is to get SDC's 2. Uber is significantly (years) behind Waymo in the SDC space. 3. Waymo will launch SDC taxi services first meaning: - When it puts in an order for SDC components no one else is going to be buying in bulk and thus it can have effectively 100% of capacity of these specialized equipment makers -…

With an accumulated deficit of $7.9 billion in their balance, isn't it worth at least $7.9 billion in tax credits?

Re: Uber S-1

#128

While I admit that the losses are staggering, the growth rates are also astounding: Revenue 2016: $3.8bn 2017: $7.9bn 2018: $11.27bn Trips 2016: 1.8bn 2017: 3.7bn 2018: 5.2bn The internet is such a game-changer.

> The internet is such a game-changer.

Or subsidizing artificially cheap rides is a game-changer.

Re: Uber S-1

#129

So... Let me see if I have this straight: 1. Uber is unprofitable and the only way it can become profitable is to get SDC's 2. Uber is significantly (years) behind Waymo in the SDC space. 3. Waymo will launch SDC taxi services first meaning: - When it puts in an order for SDC components no one else is going to be buying in bulk and thus it can have effectively 100% of capacity of these specialized equipment makers -…

According to the S-1, Uber has a $1bn profit. Where did you see it is unprofitable ?

Re: Uber S-1

#130
post #66

So... Let me see if I have this straight: 1. Uber is unprofitable and the only way it can become profitable is to get SDC's 2. Uber is significantly (years) behind Waymo in the SDC space. 3. Waymo will launch SDC taxi services first meaning: - When it puts in an order for SDC components no one else is going to be buying in bulk and thus it can have effectively 100% of capacity of these specialized equipment makers -…

I always felt SDC is the death of Uber. If you had 5 billion to invest in SDCs for a taxi service, why would you become a small investor in Uber, when you could probably build the app for $10 million and just roll your own? Also uber could become profitable if they charged more. I've actually started taking taxi's again, since they are marginally more expensive than Ubers/Lyfts. However, if you pick them up from an a…

I take Taxis from airports and from hotels for that reason (often faster than waiting for the uber to get through traffic).

The exception is SFO where Taxis cost 2x what an UberX costs.

The Taxi experience is still bad though - just yesterday in DC I had to listen to my driver 'joke' about why the Taliban should be able to fight for their country while also repeatedly pointing out and talking about women on the street.

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