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Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

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Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#121
post #87
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Climate change is both: 1. A slow and steady increase in the average temperature. 2. A rapid increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. Point 1 doesn't force people to buy ACs, but Point 2 will. For example, you generally don't need AC in San Francisco, but a heat wave in 2017 killed 14 people[0]. As the frequency of heatwaves increases, people will need to equip themselves against the temperature _extremes…

I’ve definitely personally seen the affects of climate change. Many people should be able to same the same who have lived decades in the Southwest US. Fires are more common, they’re more often extremely damaging, record setting summers year after year, and so on. As a side note, I’m offended by the commenter above you. As if someone else is going to be able to tell me what I’ve witnessed over the course of my life.

As a side note, I’m offended by the commenter above you.

Rather than being offended, I think it would be more persuasive to others if you were able to quantify what you've witnessed.

You imply that there are buildings that did not need air-conditioning when constructed, but do need it now because of climate change. I don't know what the answers are, but let's consider what statistics would be useful to defend your statement.

First, since you are talking about air-conditioning, we can probably restrict to summer temperatures. It's not clear if we can look only at daytime highs, since higher temperatures at night are also uncomfortable. Since we're talking about a threshold, we can probably restrict to the single hottest month. For Phoenix (and I'd guess the rest of the Southwest?) this looks to be July.

So to tell a compelling story, you'd probably want to show that the average high or average low for July has increased significantly since the time the building was built. How much is significant? I don't know, but if the claim was that it didn't need AC when built (as opposed to saying that it needs it more often now) I'd think we'd want to see a change of about 5F (2C). There might be a good argument for a lower number (perhaps humidity has also increased?), but it likely would be less convincing than a large jump in temperature.

Finally, you'd want to show that the increase in temperature is due to climate change, rather than the effects of urbanization. More blacktop, more buildings, and more air conditioners (!) will increase the number on the thermometer in an urban environment even if the climate hasn't changed. On the bright side, most published temperature records have already been adjusted to remove these Urban Heat Island effects. But do realize that your perception that it is hotter might be affected by the build up of the environment, so the temperature either needs to be measured outside of urban areas, or adjusted for the non-climatic changes.

So instead of taking offense, could you perhaps point to a historical chart of July temperatures for where you live, showing that the temperature (adjusted for urbanization) has increased significantly since the buildings were built?

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#122
post #48

This article is patent nonsense. Nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen to Miami in 50 years including the author, and an anecdotal poll of front line real estate agents is mindless. Even in that context the real estate agent’s worldview seems a lot more sanguine than hers. History has shown in this country that you’re a lot more likely to be right predicting that the rich will figure out how to preserve their…

Rich people have multiple passports, Swiss bank accounts and real estate in New Zeeland for when shit goes down. They have options. Namely get the hell out of Dodge. I don't think they are really all that attached to Miami.

“Rich is a fleet of private planes with a decoy to hide your scent”:

https://youtu.be/N7Wami6CJiA

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#123
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$14B in new Army Corp of Engineers work, in and around New Orleans? Doing work isn't sexy, and it doesn't make national news media, but it's what gets shit done. And the Army Corp of Engineers has its management problems, but it also tends to be caught between "We don't believe anything will happen, so we're not giving you enough funding / control, but are giving you an unfunded mandate" and "Something happened! How…

Seeing as they failed New Orleans in the first place with the levee pilings, 14 billion is penance, not anything forward looking

Downvote me all you want, you come live here then before you gainsay me

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

qq: why is an expectation that there must be charging spots for electric cars? Dedicated parking lots for green vehicles, sure I can see some logic behind cities enforcing that. But I don't show up at your parking lot and expect a mini gas pump at my spot.

It's not an expectation in any sense of the word, but it is a "nice to have" which makes both the owner of the location and owners of electric cars happier. Dedicated parking spots for "green" vehicles are worthless, and I'd be against any city enforcing that at all. I'm not quite sure if i'm for or against mandated charging spots yet, but regardless... I'm simply wondering why it's not taking off more. It seems to b…

Ha, I added the qq so you would interpret my comment as the question it was, rather than an attack.

I didn't realize that EV vehicles paid for the charging, I thought it was free. If paid then it's a nice to have that leverages the long time you spend at the park anyway.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not an expectation in any sense of the word, but it is a "nice to have" which makes both the owner of the location and owners of electric cars happier. Dedicated parking spots for "green" vehicles are worthless, and I'd be against any city enforcing that at all. I'm not quite sure if i'm for or against mandated charging spots yet, but regardless... I'm simply wondering why it's not taking off more. It seems to b…

Ha, I added the qq so you would interpret my comment as the question it was, rather than an attack. I didn't realize that EV vehicles paid for the charging, I thought it was free. If paid then it's a nice to have that leverages the long time you spend at the park anyway.

Oh shit I'm sorry, "qq" has a meaning similar to "cry about it" or "just quit if you don't like it" in some gaming circles, and I completely misinterpreted it!

"quick question" completely changes the tone of that comment!

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#126
One company could change all this: Fitch Ratings.

They do credit ratings of packages of securitized mortgages. Right now, they don't look at "will parcel be flooded before the mortgage runs out". If they did, mortgages on submerged property would be much more expensive.

Startup opportunity here. Come up with a system which reads through a package of mortgages and quantifies the climate change risk. Sell this to the major traders in securitized mortgages - AIG (yes, them again), Credit Suisse, etc.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#128

I live in Orlando. I have lived in Florida for all of my life (47 years) and I also wonder how we are going to adapt. I don't see any long term planning. A few years ago I was looking for a new office building. Considering the parking situations, I asked each developer what they were planning for electric cars, Ubers, and autonomous cars. None of them had a plan. They all said such changes were 20 years or more away.…

I've worked as an intern at a commercial property company (Colliers International) several years ago. One thing I've learned is that commercial property (be it office or residential) is always being sold. They are essentially large bonds you can touch and live in.Party A develops or buys the building, gains an annuity via rent, attempts to raise rent slowly over a few years (thus increasing the value of the property)…

Don’t forget the tax shelter aspect of it. Many real estate transactions are driven by moving tax liabilities around.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#129
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Politicians can’t do anything about physics and geology conspiring to wipe your city of the map. Only scientists and engineers can. (And if they don’t have a solution for you, it’s like having cancer circa 1650. You’re SOL.)

Say what you want about New Orleans, at least the drinking water isn’t screwed.

Is this a joke? We have water boil advisories on a quarterly basis because the drinking water is totally screwed by neglected infrastructure.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#130
post #7

I wish she had talked to some loan officers at local banks. I bet she'd get a different picture to contrast with that of the realtors. Of course realtors are going to pretend like they don't care even if they do (although they probably don't). Once the sale goes through, they don't care if the house is swept away the next day. Banks on the other hand are in this for the next thirty years. From what I understand, some…

Yep, this is just such a poor article. Would it be shocking if I talked to a car sales person, pretended I wanted an inefficient (but high-margin) large pickup truck and the sales person downplayed all the negatives of the vehicle?

Such a shame that the author was so focused on mocking other people and preaching to the choir, since this is an extremely interesting topic that deserves a much better article.

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