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Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg Have Blown Up on Twitter, and in Betting Markets

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Re: Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg Have Blown Up on Twitter, and in Betting Markets

#121
I don't have strong opinions or awareness of Yang's platform, nor have I gone out of my way to learn much about him, other than seeing the random sensational stories that pop up on my feed (e.g. his thoughts about circumcisions, wrt health policy).

But knowing little of his background (e.g. career, wealth, any other attempts at politics), I think it's cool as hell he acted on what must have been a wild "what if" idea to join the race. I'd like to think that the more normal, non-political-machine-produced humans who go through this process, the more accessible and interesting that process will be to the average person.

It seems Yang afigured out how to "hack" the Democratic primary process to get on the national debate stage. I call it a "hack" because someone like me thinks the possibility of a no-namer like Yang on stage with Sanders and Warren is too absurd a reality to imagine. But Yang did his research and found he could target the minimum requirement of having 65,000 donors [0] -- a number that seems laughably low, because of how easy it is today for anyone with a phone/computer to make small donations, coupled with Internet platforms like Reddit that let Yang find voters/donors who aren't willing to provide the traditional value (e.g. large donations), but can make all the difference when the metric is number of people, not cash on hand.

Yang likely has no chance in the primary, so I won't have to wonder if my vote for/against him would have been even slightly biased by subconscious feelings about solidarity with other Asian-Americans. However, I like that I can just marvel at the sight of an Asian-American strolling on this rarefied political stage, like it's a normal thing. And yet, it isn't -- It's something I don't think I ever thought I'd see in my life. Not because I think there's a hard barrier of racial/social injustice. It's just something I had apparently had no reason to imagine or contemplate. Just like I don't ever normally contemplate the idea of 2 cats trying to steer a Tesla. There's nothing that logically blocks that concept in real life. But seeing it in real still feels like a small, happy surprise.

0: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/candidates-reach-for...

Re: Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg Have Blown Up on Twitter, and in Betting Markets

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a counter argument for this as people with a lot of money will drives the results one way which can actually impact elections. Nkt that I buy this argument but something to keep in mind.

I definitely don't believe that today and I doubt it will ever come to pass. There are more cash-efficient ways to influence elections than warping betting odds, and I think that will hold true no matter how large the betting market gets because the manipulation gets more expensive as the market gets more attention. The weaker form of your argument "Without the caps it's biased toward people who can make big bets" is…

As a method of prediction, this all depends on whether big bettors are justified in their confidence. What sort of private information would make it worth making a big bet?

Re: Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg Have Blown Up on Twitter, and in Betting Markets

#123

As an Andrew Yang fan myself, I was shocked to see that PredictIt has him as the third most expensive (read likely) candidate after Bernie and Biden, at least when I checked. This is in stark contrast to his 0-1% polling rate in the most recent polls. So, are they just very leading indicators? It got me thinking that it's a relatively cheap campaign strategy since people like to refer to those as some sort of "market…

The major flaw in PredictIt is the low maximum cap and lack of interest paid. That makes it unprofitable to bet on small corrections even if you're right (e.g. 5% to 10%, or 5% to 1%). So PredictIt shouldn't be considered precise at small percentages.

Re: Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg Have Blown Up on Twitter, and in Betting Markets

#124

I don't know if this applies to BetChecker, but PredictIt is heavily handicapped by an $850 max bet. Without the freedom for real amounts of money to come in and exploit mispriced bets, it's practically a straw poll of PredictIt users. The PredictIt user base has some obvious demographic biases that warp the odds.

It's even worse than a straw poll. PredictIt's 5% withdrawal fee destroys any potential profit opportunity for new users betting against a candidate with low winning chances.

For example, if I were to sign up and bet against Yang at 5% odds, even if I won my bet, I'd make $0 profit because my entire withdrawal amount is taxed at 5%. If Yang's odds were set at less than 5%, I'd actually lose money even though I won my bet!

Given this, the market for low likelihood outcomes is extremely inefficient and it's very plausible that these odds are being gamed by candidates vying for attention.

Re: Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg Have Blown Up on Twitter, and in Betting Markets

#125
post #39
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bernie/Buttigieg 2020?

This would be good - or Bernie/Beto for that Texas vote.

We need to take bets on when Texas turns blue in a Presidential election, I bet 30 years in the future, 2020 is too soon. Beto did great against the least popular Senator in the United States. The voter registration number among Latinos in Texas is abysmal, but they will be a bigger bloc than any other in Texas in the future, it's just that older, whites make up 2/3 of Texas voters now and that's a pretty reliable GOP vote source.

Every year for some time people have been saying Texas will turn and it has not happened.

A little analysis here: https://www.texasmonthly.com/burka-blog/latinos-wont-turn-te...

Re: Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg Have Blown Up on Twitter, and in Betting Markets

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the interest is artificially generated or fake, it will fade quickly for sure. But I wouldn't say we shouldn't trust online phenomenon. Online phenomenon is why Obama and Trump got elected. Trump has effectively bypassed the traditional media's stranglehold on the american mind via his use of twitter and social media. And online phenomenon is why we have occasio-cortez. As the internet gains more mind share, we ha…

Why would artificial interest necessarily fade as long as whoever is generating it keeps generating it? There’s no reason to believe any internet content amplifying the message of any candidate (or president) is genuine. In fact given the findings of the past several years it’s better to assume online content is in fact generated rather than genuine.

If there is no substance behind the enthusiasm, then it can't last because it has no legs to stand on. I agree that there are tons of fake nonsense on all media, not just social media. But that doesn't mean everything on media is fake.

Of course online content is generated. My point is whether that generated online content gains actual traction. Whether that generated online content has legs and real enthusiasm behind it.

An easy way to tell is if politicians can draw crowds to their speeches. You can measure online interactions between actual people and their enthusiasm. For example, if a politician has tons of online interest and he can draw big crowds, then we can assume that his online interest is real rather than fake. If a politician has tons of online interest but can't draw any people to his speeches, it's like his "enthusiasm" is bought for and has no traction.

Re: Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg Have Blown Up on Twitter, and in Betting Markets

#127

It would be wise to not trust any phenomenon which blows up online, given the ease of generating such a phenomenon artificially.

If the interest is artificially generated or fake, it will fade quickly for sure. But I wouldn't say we shouldn't trust online phenomenon. Online phenomenon is why Obama and Trump got elected. Trump has effectively bypassed the traditional media's stranglehold on the american mind via his use of twitter and social media. And online phenomenon is why we have occasio-cortez. As the internet gains more mind share, we ha…

Yes, artificial interest can generate real interest. Isn't this what advertising does? I don't see why online publicity is necessarily less effective than advertising.

Re: Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg Have Blown Up on Twitter, and in Betting Markets

#128
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A booming economy with low inflation and low unemployment?

The rewards of which largely go to executives and shareholders, not rank-and-file employees? Sure, sounds like a business.

Who are “shareholders?” Pretty much anyone with a retirement plan or a pension.

The majority of Americans own stock.

Re: Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg Have Blown Up on Twitter, and in Betting Markets

#129
post #69

I really like Buttigieg. He honestly seems to be doing this because he wants to serve America. I’m working my way through his book and I’m very impressed by his eloquence and clarity of thought. Also, I think as a mayor he embodies the entrepreneurial spirit. He was classmates with Mark Zuckerberg. I submitted this interview the other day: http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/02/a-long-talk-with-demo... I think it’s a…

How was he classmates with Zuckerberg? He’s 4ish years older than Zuck.

In college, there are plenty of classes open to students of all ages...

Re: Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg Have Blown Up on Twitter, and in Betting Markets

#130

I've been following how Buttigieg's rise has been manufactured by 1-2 insiders. Mainly David Axelrod. He did a SXSW town hall. I watched Tulsi Gabbard (disclosure, I volunteer for her a bit) first and then tried to watch Mayor Pete, as he is called. He basically bombed the first 20 min. The period that any viewers would try to give the candidate any chance to better understand them. He was just a bit too nervous, he…

So good example of Fake News then. It's not just one side that does this stuff.
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