Live data from Hacker News

First contact made with melted nuclear fuel at Fukushima plant

asahi.com

121–130 of 222 posts

Re: First contact made with melted nuclear fuel at Fukushima plant

#121
post #46

While I realize it was likely impractical to meltdown reactors just to develop the technology to clean them up, I find the process here pretty interesting. A lot of good engineering has gone into the effort, and the engineering challenges (and risks) of post runaway reactors has gotten a lot more data. The Chernobyl folks just entombed everything, which is a one approach, even though they can "walk up to"[1] the rema…

> the "China Syndrome" speculation is pretty much completely debunked You would be dissapointed. Cou-cou! surprise! The ocean strikes back!. Unexpected source of Fukushima-derived radiocesium to the coastal ocean of Japan. 2017. Sanial, Buessler, Charette, and Nagao. PNAS. DOI:10.1073/pnas.1708659114 "Sanial, Buessler, Charette and Nagao, scientists from Massachusetts and Japan found a new source of Caesium-137 to th…

> This means even tens of kilometers away, the radiation can actually be higher than near the disaster. (Because, huh?, 137Cs sticks to the sand grains).

Radiation is a funky and tricky topic and frequently results in confusing cases like this. Let me try to explain (trying to keep things simple, so there's more nuance than what I'm writing).

Bq is a measurement of activity. That means the number of decays per second. That actually doesn't tell you the strength of that decay, the particle type, or the effective dosage one would receive. BUT it is still an incredibly important number. It will give you an indication of the half-life of the material and how much there is. A high Bq suggests low half life while a low Bq means a long half-life. OR a high Bq can tell you that there's A LOT of a material. This should make logical sense because Bq is telling you how fast it is decaying, and the more of a material there is the longer it takes to decay. Frequently if a material is known people will refer to its Bq as a way to tell someone else how much of the material there is. (yes, this can get confusing and there are two things it can be used to tell you. You have to pay careful attention. Context matters. In our case of the link you provided it tells you how much of the material there is.)

You'll also see Sieverts[0] listed commonly. This is a SI unit that tells you the effective dosage (REM is the equivalent). That means it considers the weighting that happens because of different particle types as well as where it impacts the body (you're in more danger if you swallow radioactive material than if you touch it with your hand). Which is important for maps like this one [1]. This is easier to understand.

On the other hand, there is grays (rads) is pretty similar to Sv but does not include particle weighting. In fact Sv is derived from Grays. They call this absorbed dosage.

So knowing this you should be able to conclude that the most dangerous material is something that has a high activity and has a high particle weighting.

For some comparisons, 137Cs has a half life of 30 years and decays with a beta- of 0.5Mev and a gamma at 0.7MeV. 235U on the other hand has a half life of 730Myr and decays an alpha particle at 4.8MeV.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sievert (There's a break down and link to the other units discussed here at the bottom).

[1] https://jciv.iidj.net/map/

Re: First contact made with melted nuclear fuel at Fukushima plant

#122
post #119

What strikes me is just how inept the Japanese are in handling Fukushima compared to the USSR during the much worse Chernobyl disaster. The USSR responded quickly and it took just 8 months to entomb the reactor. Over 600k people worked to handle Chernobyl. Fukushima, on the other hand, is still at risk of another disaster, 10 years later. The Japanese government and power company under-handled the situation and lied…

What the Soviet Union accomplished at the cleanup of Chernobyl likely wouldn't have been possible without a wanton disregard for the value of human life only possible in a totalitarian state, the details of which are discussed in other comments.

I don't think the lack of will or ability on the part of Japan to doom thousands of people to death by radiation in the course of a speedy cleanup can be described as ineptitude.

Re: First contact made with melted nuclear fuel at Fukushima plant

#123
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, and move away to what ?

Solar, wind, storage. Fusion at a distance. EDIT: "20 years from now" is still faster than any nuclear generator getting built.

Nuclear power plants take at most 5 years to build from the time we break ground until the reactor's hooked up to the grid. Look at how fast the Chinese are building them, or how fast e.g. the French or the US were at building them in the 60s and 70s.

That it takes so long now in the west is because we're not building enough of them, thus losing the advantage of experienced workforces and inability to leverage mass-manufacturing of standardized designs.

It's also slow because of onerous safety regulation seeking to make nuclear too safe, when we consider the result of a slowdown in commissioning of new reactors, thus increasing the reliance on coal killing way more people than if we were to hypothetically mass manufacture relatively unsafe reactor designs from the 60s today.

Re: First contact made with melted nuclear fuel at Fukushima plant

#124
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should watch this documentary on Chernobyl: > According to Vyacheslav Grishin of the Chernobyl Union, the main organization of liquidators, "25,000 of the Russian liquidators are dead and 70,000 disabled, about the same in Ukraine, and 10,000 dead in Belarus and 25,000 disabled", which makes a total of 60,000 dead (10% of the 600,000 liquidators) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_liquidators They had guys…

I've met a dying Chernobyl first responder on a commuter train in Belarus, back in early 1990s. These people never made it to WHO statistic as their deaths protracted over many years can not be directly attributed to the accident. As pro nuclear crowd would be happy to tell you, only couple dozen firemen died on the first day and that was it, making nuclear meltdowns almost benign incidents.

It is a pretty hard-hearted thing to say, but if the WHO doesn't think there is enough evidence to count his death in the Chernobyl statistics, what evidence does he have they are wrong? I mean, it isn't unprecedented for crippling damage to not surface for a long time (eg, asbestos/mesothelioma), but on the other hand cancer can strike at any age [0] and people struggle to attribute things to chance if they have a potential reason for it.

The WHO is using a statistical model to account for the fact that individual deaths might be cancer or might be something else. There is pretty concrete evidence that in terms of deaths nuclear meltdowns are benign, and the major concerns are land contamination and how big the exclusion zones need to be when things go wrong. Some of the better science-based counterarguments to nuclear I've heard go to contamination in the food chain.

[0] https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-...

Re: First contact made with melted nuclear fuel at Fukushima plant

#125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should watch this documentary on Chernobyl: > According to Vyacheslav Grishin of the Chernobyl Union, the main organization of liquidators, "25,000 of the Russian liquidators are dead and 70,000 disabled, about the same in Ukraine, and 10,000 dead in Belarus and 25,000 disabled", which makes a total of 60,000 dead (10% of the 600,000 liquidators) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_liquidators They had guys…

10% of an adult population dying over the course of 20 years doesn't seem inherently crazy? The WHO says no more than 4k died due to the accident.

It sounds far too good to be true. According to the actuarial tables at [0], 10% is the expected 20-year death rate for 40-year old men. This is for Americans in 2014, I'd expect the outcomes to be worse for Soviet citizens in 1986.

[0]https://www.finder.com/life-insurance/odds-of-dying

Re: First contact made with melted nuclear fuel at Fukushima plant

#126
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gamma radiation goes through everything. The only thing that stops it is mass and distance. You can only wear a certain amount of lead before you collapse. The amount of radiation is just too high.

Thanks for the answer, just curious would the lead sheet have holes thorough it if you put it up to that radiation? I'm picturing a sheet of paper with bullet holes through it. Or is there a better analogy of what is going on?

More like a sheet of paper held up to the light. Some light gets through, and if you have thicker paper it will allow less light through, but it doesn't noticeably damage the paper.

Re: First contact made with melted nuclear fuel at Fukushima plant

#127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The truth is that accidents like this can never be cleaned up or salvaged. While global warming is easily solved. Coal or nuclear are both bad but differently. Which one is less bad depends on your risk model

If climate change truly is incompatible with global civilization, I would rather have some defunct coal plants laying around than spent nuclear fuel. Nuclear maybe would have helped us avoid the worst of climate change if we had adopted it at a broader scale sooner, but at this point I think we have to be planning for post-civilization scenarios.

> Nuclear maybe would have helped us avoid the worst of climate change

Not even that. People seem to forget that most utilized energy is eventually dissipated in heat in the atmosphere!

Any unlimited and extremely cheap energy source would only encourage more unsustainable consumption.

Not to mention that many industrial products that lead to pollution (e.g. plastic) are correlated to the cost of electricity. Give the world free energy and people will want a new smartphone every month.

(let's sit back and count the downvotes now...)

Re: First contact made with melted nuclear fuel at Fukushima plant

#128
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The logical argument is that we still do not have a good way to deal with the radioactive waste and that a lot can still go wrong in the next million years.

And another logical argument could be that this causes us to delay cutting emissions enough to prevent massive ecosystem changes resulting in humanity's death in the next few hundred years. It's just not that simple. We need to look at both sides, weigh the options, and find a solution which probably involves a mix where we compromise on having X m³ of earth dedicated for a long time to nuclear waste to save us in th…

> this causes us to delay cutting emissions

Nuclear VS "delay cutting emissions" is a false dichotomy.

Re: First contact made with melted nuclear fuel at Fukushima plant

#129

Has there been a proper study done on how dangerous it is to live in areas around the plant, or how safe it is to eat produce grown from Fukushima and all the fish caught in the area? There's been so much rumor and fake news around this topic that I don't know what to think.

Absolutely yes. The United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) does reports every year or so on the status. Here's the 2017 one [1]. [1] http://www.unscear.org/docs/publications/2017/UNSCEAR_WP_201...

From the executive summary (for others):

> ...its assessment of the exposures and effects due to the nuclear accident after the 2011 great east Japan earthquake and tsunami... It had concluded in that report that, in general, doses were low and that therefore associated risks were also expected to be low. A discernible increase in cancer incidence in the adult population of Fukushima Prefecture that could be attributed to radiation exposure from the accident was not expected. Nevertheless, the report noted a possibility that an increased risk of thyroid cancer among those children most exposed to radiation could be theoretically inferred, although the occurrence of a large number of radiation-induced thyroid cancers in Fukushima Prefecture—such as occurred after the Chernobyl accident—could be discounted because absorbed doses to the thyroid after the accident at Fukushima were substantially lower. It had also concluded that no discernible changes in birth defects and hereditary diseases were expected and that any increased incidence of cancer among workers due to their exposure was expected to be indiscernible because of the difficulty of confirming a small increase against the normal statistical fluctuations in cancer incidence. The effects on terrestrial and marine ecosystems were expected to have been transient and localized.

Re: First contact made with melted nuclear fuel at Fukushima plant

#130

While I realize it was likely impractical to meltdown reactors just to develop the technology to clean them up, I find the process here pretty interesting. A lot of good engineering has gone into the effort, and the engineering challenges (and risks) of post runaway reactors has gotten a lot more data. The Chernobyl folks just entombed everything, which is a one approach, even though they can "walk up to"[1] the rema…

I also find it interesting that the "China Syndrome"[2] speculation is pretty much completely debunked.

That term was never meant to be taken literally, in the movie where it originates it is presented as a fanciful exaggeration meant to emphasize the seriousness of the risk. The actual plot concerns the risk of groundwater contamination following a nuclear accident, not a planet-piercing tunnel.

Post reply on HN