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Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

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Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#121
post #81
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stating something more times doesn't make it true. Everything you've written is pure speculation, and alarmist at that. There's no proof that AGI is even possible, and if it is possible there's no proof that it will end humanity.

Even anti-alarmists don’t ask for proof that AGI is possible. Obviously it is possible. Speculation is the best you get because nobody is going to be able to prove anything. We haven’t proven global warming is caused by humans but it’s still worth it to be proactive about greenhouse gasses. This is because when something is extremely dangerous, you don’t wait around for someone to finish proving it beyond any shadow…

I ask for proof that AGI is possible. Show me a computer as smart as a lab mouse and then I'll take your concerns seriously.

The analogy to anthropomorphic global climate change is a non sequitur. Climatologists have created falsifiable theories which make testable predictions.

And you really have no clue about my personal religious beliefs. Calm down and take a seat.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#122

https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Incorrect_predictions "Hence, if it requires, say, a thousand years to fit for easy flight a bird which started with rudimentary wings, or ten thousand for one which started with no wings at all and had to sprout them ab initio, it might be assumed that the flying machine which will really fly might be evolved by the combined and continuous efforts of mathematicians and mechanicians in f…

Interestingly, Hinton is on record as essentially saying that there's a good possibility that what's currently being done is wrong - and that we need to rethink our approach.

Mainly in the idea/concept of back-propagation. It's something that I've thought about myself. For the longest time, I could never understand how it worked, then I went thru Ng's "ML Class" (in 2011, which was based around Octave), and one part was developing a neural network with backprop - and the calcs being done using linear algebra. It suddenly "clicked" for me; I finally understood (maybe not to the detailed level I'd like - but to the general idea) how it all worked.

And while I was excited (and still am) by that revelation, at the same time I thought "this seems really overly complex" and "there's no way this kind of thing is happening in a real brain".

Indeed, as far as we've been able to find (although research continues, and there's been hints and model which may challenge things) - brains (well, neurons) don't do backprop; as far as we know, there's no biological mechanism to allow for backprop to occur.

So how do biological brains learn? Furthermore, how are they able to learn from only a very few examples in most cases (vs the thousands to millions examples needed by deep learning neural networks)?

We've come up with a very well engineering solution to the problem, that works - but it seems overly complex. We've essentially have made an airplane that is part ornithopter, part fixed-wing, part balloon, and part helicopter. Sure it flies - but it's rather overly complex, right?

Humanity cracked the nut when it came to heavier-than-air flight when it finally shed the idea that the wings had to flap. While it was known this was the way forward long before the Wright's or even Langley (and likely even before Lilienthal), a lot of wasted time and effort went into flying machines with flapping wings, because it was thought that "that's the way birds do it, right"?

So - in addition to the idea that backprop may not be all it's cracked up to be - what if we also need to figure out the "fixed wing" solution to artificial intelligence? Instead of trying to emulate and imitate nature so closely, perhaps there's a shortcut that currently we're missing?

I do recall a recent paper that was mentioned here on HN that I don't completely understand - that may be a way forward (the paper was called "Neural Ordinary Differential Equations"). Even so, it too seems way too complex to be a biologically plausible model of what a brain does...

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#123
If you want AGI you need to give it a world to live in. The ecological component of perception is missing. Without full senses, a machine doesn't have a world to think generally about. It just has the narrow subdomain of inputs that it is able to process.

You could bet that AGI won't manifest until AI and robotics are properly fused. Cognition does not happen in a void. This image of a purely rational mind floating in an abyss is an outdated paradigm to which many in the AI community still cling. Instead, the body and environment become incorporated into the computation.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#124
post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Intelegence is not limited to what Humans are good at. People are really bad at several tasks where current AI tech excels, but those things tend to be excluded from the conversation. AGI that is as smart as say a rat would easily qualify as AGI even without language skills.

Intelligence is not limited to what Humans are good at. Being able to implement all the things human are good at, however, should be able to get us everything that we could do, because anything we could create, it could create too. AGI that is as smart as say a rat would easily qualify as AGI even without language skills. Indeed, but while a full language-using AI is ways a way at least, using language is one thing t…

A rat can do something else that a neural net can't - it is a self replicator. Our neural nets don't have self replication or a huge, complex environment and timescale to evolve in. Self replication creates an internal goal for agents: survival. This drives learning. Instead, we just train agents with human-made rewards signals. Even a simple environment, like the Go board, when used for training many generations of agents in self-play, easily leads to super-human intelligence. We don't have the equivalent simulator for the real world environment or care to let loose billions of self replicating AI agents in the real world.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#125
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seconded. Even if animals do symbolic reasoning, they do it on top of hardware based on continuous physical dynamics, more similar to DNNs... So why not build on that platform? I don't think biological precedent is the only or even most valuable heuristic for deciding where to research intelligence... But I don't see where there is evidence that symbolic reasoning is either necessary or sufficient for AGI, except peo…

> I don't think biological precedent is the only or even most valuable heuristic for deciding where to research intelligence... Good point, we wouldn't have AlphaZero now if we only relied on biological inspiration. Nature hardly ever performs Monte Carlo Tree Search (though I'm not sure this is entirely true, see slime mold searching for food: https://thumbs.gfycat.com/IdealisticThirdCalf-size_restricte... ).

We're also good at trying out various ideas until one sticks. Isn't that MC tree search?

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#126

And no one should be surprised by this. The NN advancement of late doesn't help addressing human-style symbolic reasoning at all. All we have is a much more powerful function approximator with a drastic increased capacity (very deep networks with billions of parameters) and scalable training scheme (SGD and its variants). Such architecture works great for differentiable data, such's images/audios, but the improvement…

If humanlike reasoning is the destination for AGI, there's more than just symbolic reasoning to factor in. Emotions are a huge control on human reasoning.

People essentially rely on emotions to make all their decisions. Emotions implicitly represent rapid-fire unconscious decision work.

Again the current popular understanding of the mind separates emotion from thinking. They are not distinct. Emotional processing is another kind of thinking, and it drives the show.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#127
post #97
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is, whatever the hell it is that human brains actually do in the background to produce our 'understanding' of the world and our ability to synthesize new ways to manipulate it, we're also very good at back-fitting explanations based on symbolic reasoning. So it looks like machines need symbolic reasoning to replicate human abilities, whereas I'd bet a dollar that actually, we're doing something quite differ…

I fully agree, as I wrote in my other comment in here. Logical symbolic reasoning is usually post-hoc rationalisation built constructively to come to an already held conclusion that "feels right". It's rare that someone changes their mind due to logic, especially if the topic isn't abstract and has real-world consequences and emotional engagement.

> usually post hoc rationalisation built constructively to come to an already held conclusion that "feels right"

Counterfactual reasoning is a promising direction for AI. What would have happened if the situation were slightly different? That means we have a 'world model' in our head and can try our ideas out 'in simulation' before applying them in reality. That's why a human driver doesn't need to crash 1000 times before learning to drive, unlike RL agents. This post hoc rationalisation is our way of grounding intuition to logical models of the world, it's model based RL.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#128

And no one should be surprised by this. The NN advancement of late doesn't help addressing human-style symbolic reasoning at all. All we have is a much more powerful function approximator with a drastic increased capacity (very deep networks with billions of parameters) and scalable training scheme (SGD and its variants). Such architecture works great for differentiable data, such's images/audios, but the improvement…

If humanlike reasoning is the destination for AGI, there's more than just symbolic reasoning to factor in. Emotions are a huge control on human reasoning. People essentially rely on emotions to make all their decisions. Emotions implicitly represent rapid-fire unconscious decision work. Again the current popular understanding of the mind separates emotion from thinking. They are not distinct. Emotional processing is…

I see emotions as analogous to the value function in RL. It is essentially a prediction of future rewards based on current state and action plan. Artificial RL agents learn emotion as it is related to their tasks and environments.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arguably, there are successful brains behind every successful brain, too. Every great innovator and thinker was building off the backs of numerous other thinkers and teachers in their life. Should we be surprised that it's much easier for a tool+human(s) to do better than a tool alone, given we also expect a single human + human(s) as colleagues to do much better? Never mind the whole learning/development process, du…

Sure, I'd agree. But this brings up the idea of autopoiesis, and then I think things get really murky. One question that interests me is this: Does intelligence have as a prerequisite a living system, such as a cell? If so, what is our definition of the living system and why is that important? If not, what abstract qualities of intelligence are we really trying to capture?

I think self replication and a vast, rich environment are missing ingredients in current RL agents. The human brain doesn't just do intelligent behaviour, it also builds itself up from a single cell. Neural nets don't grow like that, they are lesser, from a point of view. They lack the constraints of self replication - survival and procreation. The richness of the environment and the presence of specific constraints are essential for the development of intelligence. And lots of time to try things out.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#130
post #77

Ilya Stuskever of OpenAI says 5 years: https://medium.com/intuitionmachine/near-term-agi-should-be-...

I watched the talk linked where that quote apparently comes from, and it was really good. Thanks for sharing that. Ilya specifically says in the talk that it is unlikely but that there is sufficient lack of understanding that we can't rule it out, and that thus the questions around it are worth thinking about.
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