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There is more to high house prices than constrained supply

economist.com

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Re: There is more to high house prices than constrained supply

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The rent itself however is controlled by supply and demand No, it's not. Folks have got to stop using simplistic remedial high school economics classes to explain complex social problems. They just aren't that simple. During the 2008 financial implosion, a single investment company called Blackstone Group went on a buying spree around the US. As of this time last year, they owned, through a subsidiary company, full…

> They are more than happy to let some percentage of their properties remain empty rather than decreasing rental prices, because they can claim the lost rents -- at the prices they set -- as taxable deductions. How is it that a tax deduction can offset the opportunity cost of leaving a property vacant? Or does it only offset the cost of what the unit would actually rent for at rates that naturally clear the supply/de…

> How is it that a tax deduction can offset the cost of leaving a property vacant?

I can't comprehensively answer this, because I'm not in the business and those that are, are tight-lipped about it. But it's definitely a contributing factor to high rates of empty storefronts [1]:

“If these landlords have deep pockets and large property portfolios, it may make more financial sense to claim a tax loss on vacant property than to rent at a non-optimal value.”

I'm assuming here that if this is a model that works in the commercial property investment market, it probably works in the residential property investment market too, as long as the investor has deep enough pockets and a long-enough financial strategy. Smaller, short-term residential property owners -- the individual landlord or small-time property management company -- probably wouldn't get as much of an advantage out of this.

> Or does it only offset the cost of what the unit would actually rent for at rates that naturally clear the supply/demand curve?

I dunno. I think we can make some educated guesses here.

If you own 1,000 single-family dwellings in a high-demand metropolitan area, like Sacramento, you've probably paid for those properties with cash or with foreign investment capital. There's no mortgage payment on it, so your costs for letting it sit empty are relatively low.

So let's say you maintain a 90% occupancy rate at rents that are significantly higher than they would be if you were forced by some regulation to maintain closer to 100%. Instead of rents varying from $2000/mo to $2700/mo for 100% of your properties, you ask for $2800/mo for 90% of your properties, and then your well-heeled mustache-twirling tax advisers find ways to write down the remaining 10% at as close to a $2800/mo loss each as possible. Hey, if anybody complains, you can just blame "the market".

> Could a vacancy tax fix this?

Some people think so, but I haven't seen a deep enough investigative piece to be certain. That's mostly what I wish for: a thorough investigation into this aspect of the housing problem that leads to some smart strategies for fixing it.

Population growth alone just doesn't explain the massive increase in cost of housing.

[1]: https://nypost.com/2018/03/30/de-blasio-eyes-vacancy-tax-for...

Re: There is more to high house prices than constrained supply

#122
post #9

The price of houses is driven by market rents compounded with access to financing. If lenders are willing to finance an investment with 3% yield, then house prices will jump to 33x their annual rent value - it goes without saying that's only possible in low interest markets. The rent itself however is controlled by supply and demand - there needs to be a real person there earning a paycheck and he must have no other…

> The rent itself however is controlled by supply and demand No, it's not. Folks have got to stop using simplistic remedial high school economics classes to explain complex social problems. They just aren't that simple. During the 2008 financial implosion, a single investment company called Blackstone Group went on a buying spree around the US. As of this time last year, they owned, through a subsidiary company, full…

As an aside the rental market in my area (So. Fla.) has started to drop. Property managers are doing everything in their power except lowering the rent, including $0 deposits, waived application fees, waived first and last months, and free parking. The rent hasn't changed and if you speak to a property manager or investor it's still a solid investment. But to renter's all these waived items definitely points to lowered rent.

Re: There is more to high house prices than constrained supply

#123

Home prices vary inversely with interest rates. Here's how that works: 1) person tells bank they'd like a mortgage to buy a house. 2) banker asks for info on income, expenses, etc. 3) banker estimates persons maximum monthly payment. 4) banker figures out max loan amount based on #3 5) buyer is encouraged by everyone to spend the full amount from #4 Everyone - the seller, their agent, your agent, the bank, and maybe…

I expected this was true for the same reasoning when buying a home, but when I sampled the historical numbers, there was no strong relationship. Bankrate came to similar conclusions: https://www.bankrate.com/finance/mortgages/rising-rates-lowe... I think your reasoning is valid, so best I can figure it's because home prices and interest rates are both directly correlated with economic activity. So if the economy is h…

Close! The Fed printed many more dollars. Society gradually learns to revalue things and it starts with assets. The same reason Bitcoin and liquid assets are falling, the Feds destroying dollars. It's not that these things are falling but that USD are becoming more scarce.

Re: There is more to high house prices than constrained supply

#124

Home prices vary inversely with interest rates. Here's how that works: 1) person tells bank they'd like a mortgage to buy a house. 2) banker asks for info on income, expenses, etc. 3) banker estimates persons maximum monthly payment. 4) banker figures out max loan amount based on #3 5) buyer is encouraged by everyone to spend the full amount from #4 Everyone - the seller, their agent, your agent, the bank, and maybe…

The article states there is a weak relationship between house prices and interest rates (with examples).

Re: There is more to high house prices than constrained supply

#126

Home prices vary inversely with interest rates. Here's how that works: 1) person tells bank they'd like a mortgage to buy a house. 2) banker asks for info on income, expenses, etc. 3) banker estimates persons maximum monthly payment. 4) banker figures out max loan amount based on #3 5) buyer is encouraged by everyone to spend the full amount from #4 Everyone - the seller, their agent, your agent, the bank, and maybe…

Historically, it is more about construction costs and comparable rent prices.

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/Fig3-1.xls

Re: There is more to high house prices than constrained supply

#127
post #9

The price of houses is driven by market rents compounded with access to financing. If lenders are willing to finance an investment with 3% yield, then house prices will jump to 33x their annual rent value - it goes without saying that's only possible in low interest markets. The rent itself however is controlled by supply and demand - there needs to be a real person there earning a paycheck and he must have no other…

You are neglecting the hidden sources of consumer-side competition, and their effect of driving up prices:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-19/foreign-i...

Re: There is more to high house prices than constrained supply

#128
post #69

Home prices vary inversely with interest rates. Here's how that works: 1) person tells bank they'd like a mortgage to buy a house. 2) banker asks for info on income, expenses, etc. 3) banker estimates persons maximum monthly payment. 4) banker figures out max loan amount based on #3 5) buyer is encouraged by everyone to spend the full amount from #4 Everyone - the seller, their agent, your agent, the bank, and maybe…

> You will "pay" the same for your house (total payments) regardless of interest rates. There is a missing branch in your procedure... step 4b) Banker refuses loan because combination of interest rates and house prices are too high for person to afford with current income: > In 1991, 67% of British 25- to 34-year-olds owned property; today only 37% do. I suspect this varying cut-off threshold of a substantial portion…

I think that change is better explained by the higher deposits required under the present high asset price low interest rate regime. The UK base rate was around 12% in 1991 and it is 0.5% today. If you assume an equal mortgage payment you now need a deposit 4 or 5 times as large to get on the housing ladder.

Re: There is more to high house prices than constrained supply

#129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I expected this was true for the same reasoning when buying a home, but when I sampled the historical numbers, there was no strong relationship. Bankrate came to similar conclusions: https://www.bankrate.com/finance/mortgages/rising-rates-lowe... I think your reasoning is valid, so best I can figure it's because home prices and interest rates are both directly correlated with economic activity. So if the economy is h…

Close! The Fed printed many more dollars. Society gradually learns to revalue things and it starts with assets. The same reason Bitcoin and liquid assets are falling, the Feds destroying dollars. It's not that these things are falling but that USD are becoming more scarce.

I don't understand how that would work. Are you saying the fed printing money has meant that things like Bitcoint have gone done in value? Shouldn't it be the opposite since there's more or less a fixed supply of Bitcoin?

Or are you saying that Bitcoin went up because they printed money and is now falling again as people get used to the increased monetary supply? That doesn't make sense to me either as I've never heard of an effect like that before

Re: There is more to high house prices than constrained supply

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think they’ll outbid you, they’ll buy a more expensive house.

They will when supply is constrained.

> They will when supply is constrained.

The point of the article is supposed to be that the issue isn't supply constraints. If interest rates only raise prices significantly when supply can't respond to higher demand, how is the problem interest rates rather than supply constraints?

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