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Europe Finally Has an Excuse to Challenge the Dollar

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Re: Europe Finally Has an Excuse to Challenge the Dollar

#121

Post by decentralised »

bsaul wrote: post #68
close04 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These measures usually have 2 unpleasant side-effects for the initiator: they trigger some form of retaliation and they push the other party closer to the enemy. In this case it could come back to harm the US tech sector for example, and it would push EU closer to China and Russia.

« pushing closer to the ennemi », yet i don’t think any european citizen will understand why we prefer to start a judiciary war against the US just so that we can help a muslim theocracy broaden its influence in the middle east. It doesn’t serm to me that the public opinion in europe is really heading toward that kind of opinion.

It's not about the type of government in Iran, it's about being sovereign in our own affairs.

Re: Europe Finally Has an Excuse to Challenge the Dollar

#122

Post by daemin »

d__k wrote: post #46
keiferski wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except in reality, countries close to Russia are desperate to have as much NATO and American presence as possible. Why? Because the Soviet Union and the Russian Empire preceding it were a universal net negative.

So what these countries are currently doing is replacing the "Russian Empire" by the "NATO Empire" (NATO/US invasion) instead of simply turning into a democracy and asking people how they want to live.

Voting to elect a government won't stop the Russian tanks from rolling in.

Re: Europe Finally Has an Excuse to Challenge the Dollar

#123

Post by NeedMoreTea »

plopilop wrote: post #119
NeedMoreTea wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the unpopularity and utter ineptitude of the UK's brexit "negotiations" I'm tempted to say might be in the process of leaving. They're making such a mess, I would not be the least surprised to see the DUP withdraw support and a surprise election result. The Labour conference seems to be moving them towards a second referendum. 18 months ago I thought claims "it might not happen" foolish, now I'm starting to thi…

They are in the process of leaving. They activated article 50, which automatically starts a process of departure lasting 24 months. This period can only be prolonged by unanimity vote, I'm not even sure it can be cancelled. Concerning the prolongation, not going to happen. Also there's no way the rest of EU is going to accept for UK to stay in the EU with the same privileges as previously (non use of euro, tax exempt…

No way to one of the largest net contributors of the EU budget? I wouldn't take that bet. Sure things in politics have a way of biting back.

It's vanishingly unlikely in the time remaining, but I would not be surprised to see huge amounts of flexibility magically appearing, if the UK somehow gained a different administration supporting remain or a second referendum. Even at this stage.

Re: Europe Finally Has an Excuse to Challenge the Dollar

#124

Post by kiriakasis »

S4M wrote: post #52
d__k wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Purely statistically you cannot even compare them: |US invasions| >> |Russia invasions| But maybe it is because of the difference in GDP: |US invasions| / GDP ~= |Russia invasions| / GDP

So you're saying that having a large GDP is a justification to invade other countries?

He or she is using |Invasions| / GDP as a measure of predisposition to invading. claiming that russia would invade more countries if it had the money.

Re: Europe Finally Has an Excuse to Challenge the Dollar

#125

Post by true_religion »

decentralised wrote: post #121
bsaul wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

« pushing closer to the ennemi », yet i don’t think any european citizen will understand why we prefer to start a judiciary war against the US just so that we can help a muslim theocracy broaden its influence in the middle east. It doesn’t serm to me that the public opinion in europe is really heading toward that kind of opinion.

It's not about the type of government in Iran, it's about being sovereign in our own affairs.

Well you are soverign, and thus free to trade with Iran over the USA. It is really up to Europeans to decide if leaving their closest historical ally and trading partner is a good thing, just ao they can grow closer to Iran.

I would be really disappointed if it goes that way though.

Re: Europe Finally Has an Excuse to Challenge the Dollar

#126

Post by _khau »

IBM wrote: post #71
tanilama wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US has this clout because it controls a large part of the organizations for international cooperation. With Trump, it is clear that he only wants to exercise such power without considering the consequences of it. With the trust towards US fading, in and out of West, a complimentary mechanism will be created. US will control/influence where its hard power can still reach, but not beyond.

Trump is an aberration and will likely be out of office in 2020, worst case 2024. No one is going to blow up old alliances because of Trump. Every foreign capital is just trying to ride out the storm.

Trump may be an aberration but the people that voted for him are not.

Re: Europe Finally Has an Excuse to Challenge the Dollar

#127

Post by bodas »

dagw wrote: post #111
bodas wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I can see, the EU has a neutral relationship with China but a hostile relationship with the US.

I don't think this a true at all. The EU, certainly as an institution, has still has a very strong, open and positive relationship with the US. Sure Trump is adding a lot of uncertainty and putting a strain on that, but most people a) interact with more stable parts of the government bureaucracy rather than directly with the White House and b) consider Trump an anomalous outlier and within 5-10 years we'll be back to…

The EU can only work with what it is given, Trump plainly hates the EU, you can't have an open and positive relationship with someone who hates you. Regardless of what anyone else in America thinks, Trump as President has the power to unilaterally sour the EU/US relationship and he is doing that quite effectively with his policies. Yes if America elects someone who is not openly hostile towards the EU then the relationship will recover but a lot of trust has been lost.

Re: Europe Finally Has an Excuse to Challenge the Dollar

#128

Post by qubax »

grecy wrote: post #95

> The cost of defying American sanctions can be steep: in 2015, BNP Paribas SA, the French bank, paid a penalty of almost $9 billion for violating U.S. sanctions against Iran, Cuba and Sudan I'm cruious, who imposes that fine and how do they enforce payment? Can the US Government FORCE a French Bank to pay them a fine? Surely a French bank could just say "no thanks".

> I'm cruious, who imposes that fine

The executive branch can ( via executive order, treasury sanctions, etc ) and of course congress can.

> and how do they enforce payment?

By threat of financial collapse.

> Can the US Government FORCE a French Bank to pay them a fine?

Yes and no. Are we going to invade france and force the bank to pay the fine? No. Could we threaten to place sanctions on the bank and exclude it from international financial system. Yes.

> Surely a French bank could just say "no thanks".

It can. But then it would immediately collapse. No international bank can survive a US sanction because the US runs the international finance system. There is reason why the swiss banking system submitted to US demands to turn over customer data a few years ago. Economic sanctions on switzerland would turn it into north korea or venezuela.

People mistakenly think that US sanctions means that the US won't do business with a certain country. US sanctions means that everyone doing business with the US can't do business with a certain country.

US sanctions essentially forces the world to choose between the US and country X. The US being the largest economy and the heart of the international financial system wins every time.

It's why there is so much drama with US sanctions on iran. It's not that we won't do business with iran. It's that everyone who wants a business relationship with the US can't do business with iran.

Re: Europe Finally Has an Excuse to Challenge the Dollar

#129

Post by m_eiman »

beaconstudios wrote: post #109
m_eiman wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

4.) Work with the international community and act together

what does that even mean? "Act together" would just take the form of sanctions, no?

Probably, but there's a difference between "US doing whatever it feels like whenever it feels like it" and "US acting in concert with the rest of the world".

Re: Europe Finally Has an Excuse to Challenge the Dollar

#130

Post by beaconstudios »

m_eiman wrote: post #129
beaconstudios wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what does that even mean? "Act together" would just take the form of sanctions, no?

Probably, but there's a difference between "US doing whatever it feels like whenever it feels like it" and "US acting in concert with the rest of the world".

yeah, the difference is that allies will comply, enemies will not and neutral countries will trade favours for compliance. How is that an improvement? It's just going to be politicking. International affairs are not generally an exercise in everyone teaming up to stand up to the baddies.
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