New US Tariffs are Anti-Maker and Will Encourage Offshoring • Hacker News Board

Re: New US Tariffs are Anti-Maker and Will Encourage Offshoring

#121

Post by CaptainZapp » Tue, Jun 19, 2018, 1:49 PM UTC

endorphone wrote: post #44

IanDrake wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s just hyperbole. The US is throwing its weight around for the first time since Reagan. Last time it worked out pretty well. Things have changed a lot since then with the rise of China and the EU. With the new big players in the world it’s time the US put on its big boy pants and renegotiated its place.

The entire worldwide trade order was created by the US throwing its weight around. Those cheap Chinese goods, Korea, Japan, the WTO, the poles of axis. Drug prices, intellectual property protections. All courtesy of the US. That order that made the US the richest country in the world, home to the most powerful companies in the world. So the whole Trump narrative that you're regurgitating is a bit odd. And it is alrea…

"Trump's ignorant, hap-hazard way of "negotiating" has alienated foes and made the world re-evaluate why it is playing the US agenda."

What's much worse is that he has allienated friends (specifically when they refuse to kiss his ring, but I digress) and mostly for no good reason at all.

The US squandered their advantage of having been respected as a (mostly) reliable partner to a definite CAN NOT BE TRUSTED! in not even two short years.

You may argue that who cares? "We're America, Bitch" [1] But I really don't see any sustainability and long term gains in the current model for the world in general and especially for America.

[1] https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/06/a-senio...

Re: New US Tariffs are Anti-Maker and Will Encourage Offshoring

#122

Post by throwawayjava » Tue, Jun 19, 2018, 1:51 PM UTC

tomp wrote: post #108

samastur wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This works only as long as people having these high salaries do work with high added value and you are not relying much on international trade. Otherwise they can be effectively undercut by people who can do the same thing cheaper.

hence tariffs.

The argument that Switzerland provides a model for high tariffs creating wealth is... especially ironic. Switzerland is one of the least tariff-encumbered economies in the world, reguarly topping out various free trade indicies [1]. And in Switzerland's case, that's almost certainly causual. Average salaries in Switzerland are so high because of the disproprtionate role Switzerland plays in EU and global banking -- a role that wouldn't be possible if Switzerland didn't embrace free trade.

So, if we're going to follow Switzerland's lead, we would roll back tariffs.

Switzerland is more akin to the EU's version of Massachusetts or New York, and Zurich is the EU's version of Manhattan or SF. It's the sort of economic zone that will always exist in a large economy like the US or the EU. The population is disproportionately made up of citizens from one or two cities/metro areas, and those cities have a high concentration of highly educated and highly paid individuals typically focused on one of a few industries. Consequently, even those employed outside of these high-paying industries make more than average compared to the rest of the country/bloc.

Situating ourselves similarly to Switzerland requires placing the US very high in the global value chain while maintaining a global order of very low trade barriers. Which has always been the neoliberal agenda, at least ostisibly.

In other words, if we want to emulate Switzerland, we have to do exactly the opposite of the Trump plan -- continue offshoring anything lower in the value chain, continue insisting on low trade barriers, continue dominating everything higher in the value chain. Obviously, even if this strategy works for the country in aggregate, it's going ot have definite losers in a country as large as the US.

On a (very!) related note, the US and Switzerland currently have basically the same PPP.

[1] https://www.heritage.org/index/country/switzerland

Re: New US Tariffs are Anti-Maker and Will Encourage Offshoring

#123

Post by berthe » Tue, Jun 19, 2018, 1:53 PM UTC

pjc50 wrote: post #49

xienze wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is no need to be going into a trade war against not only traditionally our rivals but also our allies now too. And yet other countries never seem to entertain the idea of both sides getting rid of all their tariffs, which is something Trump suggested at that G7 summit. Everyone goes nuts when the US suggests implementing tariffs against countries that already have tariffs against us. You gotta admit, the mess…

The US has always argued for other countries to reduce their tariffs. Here's an article from 2002, for example: https://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/obstacles-zero-tariffs "The fact is that there is a strong feeling in the developing world that trade rules do not apply equally. Indeed, Washington lost the moral high ground earlier this year when it slapped steep tariffs on steel imports and locked in subsidies for its…

> The "non-tariff barriers" are important - all kinds of environmental and safety standards could be considered as these, and they can be far more difficult to deal with than simply paying an import duty.

I'm glad the US has environmental and safety standards and enforces those (to some degree) on imports. Those actually accomplish some good and have positive externalities.

It's also worth noting that other countries have significant non tariff barriers as well, perhaps more significant than the US, and ones with less positive effects. Some Chinese examples are the Great Firewall (https://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/08/business/international/ch...) and fact that a large part of the Chinese economy is still state-owned (and could be politically directed to avoid importing American products without any need for a tariff).

Re: New US Tariffs are Anti-Maker and Will Encourage Offshoring

#124

Post by defertoreptar » Tue, Jun 19, 2018, 1:53 PM UTC

jeromegv wrote: post #116

defertoreptar wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So you believe that the US is a victim of protectionism in these countries without having protectionism of it's own? That's a pretty hard position to back with evidence. You need look no further than the USA's gaping trade deficits.

There is no trade deficit with Canada.

I believe you're referring to the USA's "aggregate sales surplus," which measures both direct trade and sales of multinational companies--a headline making rounds on the news this past week.

These numbers include items made in China, by Chinese jobs, using Chinese components, under a US company name. It uses total sales, and not net revenue, which would change the picture by a great deal.

Re: New US Tariffs are Anti-Maker and Will Encourage Offshoring

#125

Post by akoncius » Tue, Jun 19, 2018, 1:53 PM UTC

frockington wrote: post #80

endorphone wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The entire worldwide trade order was created by the US throwing its weight around. Those cheap Chinese goods, Korea, Japan, the WTO, the poles of axis. Drug prices, intellectual property protections. All courtesy of the US. That order that made the US the richest country in the world, home to the most powerful companies in the world. So the whole Trump narrative that you're regurgitating is a bit odd. And it is alrea…

It seems like they are forced to play the US agenda. Are they going to end their military protection agreements with the most powerful military in the world? Are they going to close access to the world largest market? If they want to have a nation in 20 years they likely will not stop playing the US agenda

USA will not be able to play this card for long. Trump already expressed doubts about whether USA would defend eastern EU countries. Trust is almost gone already, so USA is losing "benefits" what to offer to allies quite fast.

What would be the point to sell products to USA with huge tariff on top of it to the point that local products would be way cheaper? Nobody would buy it.

What's the point to expect partnerships in military with USA when for example South Korea is left cold without any discussions about it?

Re: New US Tariffs are Anti-Maker and Will Encourage Offshoring

#126

Post by justin66 » Tue, Jun 19, 2018, 1:57 PM UTC

frockington wrote: post #107

justin66 wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So why not free trade? Every country involved has industries which won't allow this. For example, all the countries in the G8 have agricultural sectors which will not allow elimination of trade barriers. So, even if you want "free trade," you start with each country's list of stuff where there is not going to be free trade, and move forward from there.

I agree its not going to happen. I like your idea of a starting point though

It's not really my idea, it's what the larger countries basically did starting in the eighties and early nineties when free trade ideology was quite strong, leading up to the creation of the WTO and EU and so on and so forth. What you see today is the evolution of that starting point that you like...

Re: New US Tariffs are Anti-Maker and Will Encourage Offshoring

#127

Post by themaninthedark » Tue, Jun 19, 2018, 1:58 PM UTC

1over137 wrote: post #24

IanDrake wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not sure you understand how nations work. We elect people to work in our best interests. We are in competition with other countries. Our blue collar jobs have stagnated since we’ve been off-shoring manufacturing to China. The poor in the US were getting poorer. Not everyone has the ability to transition into a thinking job and we need a balanced economy for these people.

Not to disagree (or agree), but it seems to me most USians were quite happy to buy cheap Chinese crap at Walmart & Amazon in the last decades, thus off-shoring their own jobs. The chickens are home to roost.

Ah, so it is the poor peoples fault that as the good paying manufacturing jobs were shifted first to Mexico then to other countries they shopped at stores that offered cheaper goods so that they could keep up their standard of living!

It makes so much sense when you say it like that.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/trade...

http://articles.latimes.com/1992-10-23/local/me-683_1_trade-...

If you don't remember, this was supposed to boost the economy and we would replace all the blue collar jobs with high paying service industry jobs.

The jobs went away but I didn't see any new jobs being created in north GA or western NC.

Re: New US Tariffs are Anti-Maker and Will Encourage Offshoring

#128

Post by echotango » Tue, Jun 19, 2018, 1:59 PM UTC

ChuckMcM wrote: post #120

frockington wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe nobody should have tariffs. Understanding that is never going to happen, it should at least be a starting ppoint

That will work as soon as we have a single currency. The EU is a really good example here of how a single currency puts everyone on the same economic accounting basis and so eliminates the ability of a country to 'fudge' the numbers through either internal subsidies or currency manipulation. The reason you need a single currency is that if you're going to sell barrels of wheat from country X to country Y, and country…

The inability to devalue currency is why greece cant recover. The Euro is idiotic.

Re: New US Tariffs are Anti-Maker and Will Encourage Offshoring

#129

Post by jakeogh » Tue, Jun 19, 2018, 2:00 PM UTC

ChuckMcM wrote: post #120

frockington wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe nobody should have tariffs. Understanding that is never going to happen, it should at least be a starting ppoint

That will work as soon as we have a single currency. The EU is a really good example here of how a single currency puts everyone on the same economic accounting basis and so eliminates the ability of a country to 'fudge' the numbers through either internal subsidies or currency manipulation. The reason you need a single currency is that if you're going to sell barrels of wheat from country X to country Y, and country…

Say bye to Italy.

Re: New US Tariffs are Anti-Maker and Will Encourage Offshoring

#130

Post by echotango » Tue, Jun 19, 2018, 2:01 PM UTC

defertoreptar wrote: post #124

jeromegv wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no trade deficit with Canada.

I believe you're referring to the USA's "aggregate sales surplus," which measures both direct trade and sales of multinational companies--a headline making rounds on the news this past week. These numbers include items made in China, by Chinese jobs, using Chinese components, under a US company name. It uses total sales, and not net revenue, which would change the picture by a great deal.

Lol people won't actually address your point they just downvote your post. Hn is very classy when people bring up politics