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BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

reuters.com

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Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#121

Post by r00fus »

dangrossman wrote: post #23

I don't think there's any "collusion" or other conspiracy to hold back electric vehicles, I think what BMW said is objectively true. Lithium batteries have cost too much in the past decade to put them into more than luxury cars or negative-profit compliance cars. Supply chains don't appear overnight. LG Chem, Samsung SDI, AESC/NEC, BYD, Foxconn, etc have been building factories and securing raw materials for many man…

If companies can make compliance cars, then regulations work.

The answer is expansion of these regulations because the industry will be dragged kicking and screaming into the electric future.

Why 2020? It's China's deadline for auto manufacturers to provide mass market options in the china market or be fined/removed.

Regulations? Need MOAr.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#122

Post by dangrossman »

ebbv wrote: post #97
dangrossman wrote: post #23

I don't think there's any "collusion" or other conspiracy to hold back electric vehicles, I think what BMW said is objectively true. Lithium batteries have cost too much in the past decade to put them into more than luxury cars or negative-profit compliance cars. Supply chains don't appear overnight. LG Chem, Samsung SDI, AESC/NEC, BYD, Foxconn, etc have been building factories and securing raw materials for many man…

This is just straight up baloney. The Nissan Leaf and the Chevy Bolt show this to just not be true at all. It's not that car companies like BMW and Honda and others who are being slow to release EVs are colluding so much as they are just dragging their feet because ICE engine vehicles are much more profitable right now (not requiring changes to their supply chain and manufacturing methods, or training of dealerships…

The Nissan Leaf, with a 68% smaller battery than a Tesla, cost more to build than its selling price until 2015 (5 years into production and 7 years after breaking ground on the battery factory) according to Nissan's CEO. GM only made about 25,000 Chevy Bolts last year and lost money doing it.

If anything, they're both perfect examples of what I said.

Nissan had to start building a supply chain for the Nissan Leaf in 2008 to make it profitably in 2015. It took nearly 10 years for them to replicate the battery assembly lines, electric motor assembly lines, and car assembly lines for Leaf across 3 continents to sell it worldwide at "mass production" volumes.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#123

Post by mtgx »

twblalock wrote: post #39

That's less than two years away. I don't know how long it normally takes to ramp up production for a new car model, but it doesn't seem too bad to me.

They're also subtly saying you should ignore the Model 3 being shipped in 2018 and 2019. You should really wait for the "real" (read: our) EVs in 2020 and later.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#124

Post by vvanders »

kickopotomus wrote: post #74
sweden wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is certainly a relutance from car companies to start making electric cars and the proof of that is Tesla. They have been fighting hard for years to secure supply chains for their battery packs, what's stopping the current car companies of doing the same with their infinite cash reserves? Why are they only starting now when Tesla has been planning it for years? Also, you are giving those numbers without any sour…

Tesla is not proof of that. Tesla is an EV company from the ground up. They also do not have the capacity to produce vehicles at the rate of companies like BMW, Mercedes, Honda, etc. Moreover, car companies do not have "infinite cash reserves". Retooling factories for EV production is an expensive undertaking. Combined with the expense of lithium cells and supply issues, it's not a simple or cheap task.

> They also do not have the capacity to produce vehicles at the rate of companies like BMW, Mercedes, Honda, etc.

I don't buy that for a second, esp given that they are now out-selling the S Class[1].

[1] https://electrek.co/2017/05/26/tesls-model-s-leading-us-larg...

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#125

Post by [deleted] »

mulmen wrote: post #82
detaro wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If making delivery vans for one of the biggest users of delivery vehicles in Germany (that uses tons of VW vans currently) is "a small project outside their core competency", VW really is in trouble.

Does VW already know how to make electric vehicles? How many would they sell relative to their total sales of existing ICE vans? Is it worth starting up an entire new business for one customer? I think this can be explained by VW just deciding its not worth it rather than saying VW is trying to suppress electric vehicle development.

[deleted]

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#126

Post by michaelt »

detaro wrote: post #78
mulmen wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm thinking of starting a blog about RC planes, but I'm going to outsource the development. I submitted a bid to IBM but they haven't replied! On top of that Boeing said they're not interested in assembling my plane! Clearly these incumbents are holding me back. /s Sarcasm aside maybe it just wasn't worth it to VW to take on a relatively small project outside of their core competency?

If making delivery vans for one of the biggest users of delivery vehicles in Germany (that uses tons of VW vans currently) is "a small project outside their core competency", VW really is in trouble.

Most van companies offer a "chassis cab" option [1] - basically a van with the cab present, but most of the back missing.

There's then an ecosystem of companies that will work with end users to design, build and fit custom van bodies. If you want a mobile broadcast van, or an ambulance or a mobile command centre? That's where they come from.

If you see delivery vans that aren't standard models, they've almost certainly come through the same ecosystem; companies like VW generally aren't in the business of working with end users on custom products.

[1] https://www.google.com/search?q=van+cab+chassis&tbm=isch

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#127

Post by simonbarker87 »

kazen44 wrote: post #64
ecpottinger wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, but that does not ring true to me. I used to work on the assembly at a GM truck plant, and one of the amazing things was the range of different units that came down the line. I find it hard to believe that the major car plants can no longer make assembly lines that produce more than one design on an assembly line. Also by that logic there should be no Nissan Leaf. Last but not least, if BMW waits too long they…

> I find it hard to believe that the major car plants can no longer make assembly lines that produce more than one design on an assembly line. this is not the problem i described. The problem is introducing a new model into an assembly line is a lot of work, and something which is not worth the effort if you are only going to produce a small amount of cars.

Absolutely not true. The Nissan Sunderland plant (which produces over 500K cars per year on two lines) produces both the Nissan Leaf and Infiniti Q30 in low volume on line two (might be line 1, not certain now). The Q30 was introduced from a slow ramp up without stopping production of the line around 18 months ago and is a low volume car.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#128

Post by austenallred »

dangrossman wrote: post #23

I don't think there's any "collusion" or other conspiracy to hold back electric vehicles, I think what BMW said is objectively true. Lithium batteries have cost too much in the past decade to put them into more than luxury cars or negative-profit compliance cars. Supply chains don't appear overnight. LG Chem, Samsung SDI, AESC/NEC, BYD, Foxconn, etc have been building factories and securing raw materials for many man…

It’s not a conspiracy, its the innovator’s dilemma. It’s the fact that getting to a point where you can compete on margins would force you to invest all of the margins of your existing company (and possibly then some), and being unwilling to do so.

I believe this is shortsighted thinking. They’ll have fat margins for now, and then a few years from now it’ll be too late. Companies like Tesla that are fine absolutely incinerating cash and playing with death in order to make it work will have a serious headstart.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#129

Post by pedasmith »

WhompingWindows wrote: post #16
vinhboy wrote: post #2

This has been said many times, but it feels like all the manufacturers colluded to make EV cars extremely ugly and undesirable. Prime example being the BMW i3. Of all the nice looking cars they have in their line up, one has to wonder why they went with an i3. Put that same capability in a 3-series and it would have been a different story.

I don't disagree that so many of the EV's are extremely ugly and undesirable, but don't you think part of that is the inherent limitations of energy efficiency on these vehicles? A lot of it comes down to aerodynamic efficiency for something like a Tesla or Leaf or Bolt. The more aerodynamically efficient you are, the longer your range, thus limiting the range anxiety slightly. Some companies handle this gracefully,…

I've owned a leaf for some time as the family second car. Except for long trips, it's the one car we always prefer. Any short drive will be done in the leaf (unless someone's already taken it).

Its easily the best car I've owned because it's reliable, cheap to operate, dead quiet, and has a nice amount of get-up-and-go.

So no, the current crop of EVs are not undesirable. They may not meet everyone's needs (e.g., in rural Idaho where the nearest town is 40 miles away). But if they do meet your needs, the current set is great.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#130

Post by sxates »

vvanders wrote: post #124
kickopotomus wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is not proof of that. Tesla is an EV company from the ground up. They also do not have the capacity to produce vehicles at the rate of companies like BMW, Mercedes, Honda, etc. Moreover, car companies do not have "infinite cash reserves". Retooling factories for EV production is an expensive undertaking. Combined with the expense of lithium cells and supply issues, it's not a simple or cheap task.

> They also do not have the capacity to produce vehicles at the rate of companies like BMW, Mercedes, Honda, etc. I don't buy that for a second, esp given that they are now out-selling the S Class[1]. [1] https://electrek.co/2017/05/26/tesls-model-s-leading-us-larg...

To be fair - the S Class is a relatively low volume car. I don't have exact figures, but I'd expect it to be in the range of 2-3% of the cars Mercedes manufactures.

BMW made nearly 2,000,000 cars in 2015[1], and this year, best case, Tesla will make 150,000. That's an order of magnitude difference in scale.

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW#Production

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