Earlier quoted context omitted.
There's a difference about Gold's rarity and Bitcoin's. Gold is rare on its kind and rare on its abundance. It may be hard to mine more gold, but it's way harder to find another gold-like commodity. Bitcoin is only rare in the abundance sense. It is hard to mine more bitcoin, but it's pretty easy to find a (arguably better) substitute for what it does. I can agree with it being better (having more utility) than gold,…
Bitcoin definitely isn't rare in kind as we've already seen how relatively "easy" it is to fork. Could just fork Bitcoin infinitely as one way to deal with its supposed scarcity. Bitcoin isn't even rare in the abundance sense if you consider that how hard it is to mine new coins is merely a function of a mathematical curve that can be adjusted as a software change. Certainly any change to the mining difficulty and/or…
How the Winklevoss Twins Found Vindication in a Bitcoin Fortune
121–130 of 309 posts
Re: How the Winklevoss Twins Found Vindication in a Bitcoin Fortune
#122>> They said they might look at selling when the value of all the Bitcoin in circulation approaches the value of all gold in the world — some $7 trillion or $8 trillion compared with the $310 billion value of all Bitcoin on Tuesday — given that they think Bitcoin is set to replace gold as a rare commodity. But then Tyler Winklevoss questioned even that, pointing out the ways that he believes Bitcoin is better than go…
That's quite a balony. - Both are in fixed quantity so none is more rare than other. - Gold has practical use in industry which puts lower bound on its value. BTC has no lower bound. - Gold is exchangeable virtually in any country and any culture regardless of how technologically advanced that society is. - Thousands of years of history has proven that humans have almost natural lust for this shiny metal and it gets…
Your other arguments are not bad (well, it varies), but this one is very weak. You do know that a lot of 3rd world citizens now have access to cell phones? Technology is pervasive nowadays.
Re: How the Winklevoss Twins Found Vindication in a Bitcoin Fortune
#123A Bitcoin fortune on paper. It remains to be see if anyone will come out of this with real money. I'm sure they'll still be rich. But $1.65 billion rich? Probably not.
Plenty of people already have. Even if they come out with only 10% of the value of their holdings that is still a Huge return for what they initially put into it
Re: How the Winklevoss Twins Found Vindication in a Bitcoin Fortune
#124Re: How the Winklevoss Twins Found Vindication in a Bitcoin Fortune
#125>> They said they might look at selling when the value of all the Bitcoin in circulation approaches the value of all gold in the world — some $7 trillion or $8 trillion compared with the $310 billion value of all Bitcoin on Tuesday — given that they think Bitcoin is set to replace gold as a rare commodity. But then Tyler Winklevoss questioned even that, pointing out the ways that he believes Bitcoin is better than go…
That's quite a balony. - Both are in fixed quantity so none is more rare than other. - Gold has practical use in industry which puts lower bound on its value. BTC has no lower bound. - Gold is exchangeable virtually in any country and any culture regardless of how technologically advanced that society is. - Thousands of years of history has proven that humans have almost natural lust for this shiny metal and it gets…
How did that work out for oil a couple years ago?
Yes there's some lower bound on gold, but if it turns out it's lower than you thought, or if the supply can be altered to manipulate the price and drive it even lower, it's not very useful.
Given that gold prices 20 years ago were somewhere around 1/6 the maximum price in that period ($300 vs $1800), it's reasonable to assert that this lower bound on gold lower than even that. Meaning if I invest in gold and people completely lose faith in it, I could lose 85%+ of my investment. Not a very helpful safety net.
Re: How the Winklevoss Twins Found Vindication in a Bitcoin Fortune
#126Earlier quoted context omitted.
Liquidity problems are an issue with exchanges, not Bitcoin itself. I can email you a Bitcoin instantly. Good luck doing that with a gold bar.
On the other hand, gold will remain liquid in a situation where the technological fabric of current society breaks down. That kind of survivalist logic is one major reason why private individuals own gold. If I keep Krugerrands stashed under my pillow because I expect Neo-Stalinists to one day take control of the continent and confiscate all property held in digital systems, it doesn't seem like Bitcoin will give me…
There's a range of topics (money, power, sex, death) that do funny things to the human mind. When broaching said topics, most if not all people become unfathomably stupid in various ways.
Re: How the Winklevoss Twins Found Vindication in a Bitcoin Fortune
#127Earlier quoted context omitted.
What? Fees are 0.1%. that's nothing compared to fees for regular stocks exchanges. I'm perfectly fine paying 10 cents for every $100 I trade.
What are the fees for regular stock exchanges?
But GDAX is a vertically integrated exchange and retail trading platform, so the 0.1% taker fee is all you pay. A stock exchange won't talk to you directly so you must pay additional broker/clearing/bank fees.
Real all-in fees for stock can be 2 USD to trade 2k USD, so 0.1%, same as GDAX. But you can also find fees of 10 USD to trade 100k USD and many other rate examples which are either higher or lower.
I think a lot of people don't notice the huge difference between a traditional exchange (which does not handle money, only agreements about money) and GDAX (vertically integrated exchange + clearing house + trading application).
Re: How the Winklevoss Twins Found Vindication in a Bitcoin Fortune
#128Earlier quoted context omitted.
Gold has had some ridiculous swings along the way too, though I doubt anything like BTC. The scale is incomparable, but every year the history grows and the likelihood of permanent acceptance increases.
> Gold has had some ridiculous swings along the way too... The Spanish pulled a large amount of gold out of their New World colonies. It reduced the price of gold in Europe... by 20%. That seems to me to be not much of a swing, given the magnitude of the event. The biggest swing that I know of was when the US allowed the price of gold to move. The US held the price of gold at $35/oz from (about) 1932 to (about) 1975.…
> Musa's generous actions inadvertently devastated the economies of the regions through which he passed. In the cities of Cairo, Medina, and Mecca, the sudden influx of gold devalued the metal for the next decade. Prices on goods and wares greatly inflated. To rectify the gold market, on his way back from Mecca, Musa borrowed all the gold he could carry from money-lenders in Cairo, at high interest. This is the only time recorded in history that one man directly controlled the price of gold in the Mediterranean.
Re: How the Winklevoss Twins Found Vindication in a Bitcoin Fortune
#129Earlier quoted context omitted.
I respectfully disagree with your conclusion. There isn't one company for internet searches and there isn't one provider for online video content. Why should there be just a handful of currencies? The natural state of a healthy ecosystem includes competition and variety.
75% of all searches are Google, 10% Baidu, and 8% Bing. Youtube represents the vast majority of online video content. Netflix the vast majority of on demand television. I only mean to say a handful will capture the vast majority of market share/cap.
Youtube and netflix are both on demand television as are amazon instant, modern cable tv subscriptions, and a variety of specific channels (hbo, showtime, etc).
There will definitely be use case dominance, but they may not be the same whales as we currently see.
Re: How the Winklevoss Twins Found Vindication in a Bitcoin Fortune
#130Does anyone know the actual value of the money put into bitcoin so far vs this market cap of recent sale price x count? I'm keen to know actually how many people could withdraw at similar sale prices to now before it evaporated. Because it's so exponential, I would imagine a rapid sale of 5% would remove 90% of the value, but I'd love to know the specifics.
Bank of America and Bitcoin both have market caps of ~$290 billion. Bank of America usually sees huge trading volume for a stock and it traded about $1.8 billion of volume today. BTC/USD alone has done $3 billion today. I realize it's not a perfect comparison, but I think it highlights the fact that large sales aren't going to just decimate bitcoin's value.
An every day analogy: saying a river can never flood because there it has a big dam.