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Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands

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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands

#121

Post by dba7dba »

the_evacuator wrote: post #101
valarauca1 wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The few historical evacuations of >1mil people have often been over the course of 7+days, as well as over very large areas. The only _successful_ evacuation of a major metropolitan area (>3mil) in 20k causalities so it is hard to call that successful.

I beg to differ. Exodus of ~1m people in about one day is frequently observed in Europe. It can't be done with cars, of course, because cars are not a means of mass transportation. It can be done easily with trains, though. Example: Street Parade Zurich, attended by about a million people. Virtually all of those people arrive by train immediately before the event, and are gone the next day. Watching > 100k people pou…

Those 1 million people in Europe are going to their home.

I bet not even Europe or China can figure out how to suddenly house/feed a million people who had to evacuate from a city for a few days, or even overnight.

Re: Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands

#123

Post by CiPHPerCoder »

orbitur wrote: post #120
CiPHPerCoder wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Floridians, especially those who lived through Charlie, are usually very well-versed in hurricane preparedness. Especially if, like me, they are unable to evacuate. (If I were to even attempt it, it would likely leave me stranded on the road for days and risk being a sitting duck.) That being said, I fully expect it to make landfall near where I live at category 5 strength, despite the current projections of "merely"…

Honest question: You'd be stranded if you left now?

The problem isn't just the hurricane, it's surviving the aftermath.

Let's look at the scenarios for evacuating the state.

If I leave now (without any vehicle to my name), I'd need to arrange for a car rental. Assuming any vehicles are even available to be driven out of the state, and they'd rent one to someone who is half-blind and doesn't have a driver's license, by the time I got into one, I'd be looking at several days of traffic jams and statewide gas shortages. The odds of being stuck on the road when the hurricane hits is too significant to ignore, and I'd rather be in a house than a car.

Then I would need a place to go. AirBNB, hotels, etc. are all expensive as hell, and probably saturated with evacuees.

Finally, I need to do all that while taking more time off of work than I am allowed to take every year, which calls two things into question:

  1. How will I pay for the evacuation and stay?
  2. Will I even have a job after all this? (I work remote.)
This isn't even considering the fact that I need to make a decision with 5 other adults (the people I live with, and care about the most, all of whom have decided to prepare and weather the storm).

Evacuation sounds good in theory, but honestly, it's not so simple.

In the off-chance that the storm kills me: Pragmatically speaking, I'm basically a nobody who has done practically nothing noteworthy, so no one outside my immediate circle of friends will care (if they even know). I encourage everyone in the path of the storm, all of whom probably matter to the community much more than I ever will, to make their own decisions and not follow my example.

Re: Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands

#124

Post by devrandomguy »

jason_slack wrote: post #102

Windy.com is pretty fun to use! But I have to ask something.... Irma is 180mph. Scroll the Windy.com map to between South America and Antartica. Is that really 330mph winds? https://www.windy.com/?-63.273,-79.277,3,m:YTadQA screenshot, just in case: https://imgur.com/a/Jm2ir Still looking at Windy.com, Alaska is getting hit with 150mph winds right now. I haven't heard about that, but Irma is huge news on the back of…

The first number is the wind direction, in degrees, not velocity in a different unit. The UX could be improved with a ° symbol.

Re: Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands

#125

Post by lisper »

CiPHPerCoder wrote: post #123
orbitur wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honest question: You'd be stranded if you left now?

The problem isn't just the hurricane, it's surviving the aftermath. Let's look at the scenarios for evacuating the state. If I leave now (without any vehicle to my name), I'd need to arrange for a car rental. Assuming any vehicles are even available to be driven out of the state, and they'd rent one to someone who is half-blind and doesn't have a driver's license, by the time I got into one, I'd be looking at several…

> I'm basically a nobody who has done practically nothing noteworthy

You've done at least one noteworthy thing: you posted the above comment. I, for one, noticed.

Good luck to you.

Re: Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands

#126

Post by pamqzl »

chirau wrote: post #91
ska wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>They just don't see the threat as being that serious. Which is fine, until it isn't. One problem with having survived a few hurricanes is that they aren't "that bad" until you hit one that was. I've seen bad enough that I'd never want to see a stronger one. Even without any additional risk, a week without power or fresh water in a hundred degrees isn't anyone idea of fun. If the climate models are right on this, we'…

To be fair, most people just don't respond as rapidly to anything they are used to. It's the same reason why New Yorkers are not bothered by fire trucks at all and/or fire alarms. To quote you, "Which is fine, until it isn't". Looking from the outside in, it's easy to question their logic, but i am sure we all have traits that outsiders would wonder why we are so nonchalant about it. It's adaptation, it's human condi…

I wonder how many of those in this thread wondering "why don't they evacuate?" live in California's earthquake zone.

Re: Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands

#127

Post by nradov »

CiPHPerCoder wrote: post #123
orbitur wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honest question: You'd be stranded if you left now?

The problem isn't just the hurricane, it's surviving the aftermath. Let's look at the scenarios for evacuating the state. If I leave now (without any vehicle to my name), I'd need to arrange for a car rental. Assuming any vehicles are even available to be driven out of the state, and they'd rent one to someone who is half-blind and doesn't have a driver's license, by the time I got into one, I'd be looking at several…

This is one of the major downsides of living in a dense city without your own car and relying on the "transportation as a service" model. It works fine until it doesn't, and then you're screwed. The system is fragile with very little resiliency. (This is just a general comment, I don't mean it as a criticism of your personal choices.)

Re: Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands

#128

Post by swasheck »

lsaferite wrote: post #118
fma wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Florida native here, too. What op is probably referring to are those who haven't been decimated yet. I've lived in Ft.lauderdale a for a while and went through Andrew. We evacuated inland. The place we evacuated to lost power, where our house didn't. Ironic, isn't it. Ft.lauderdale wasn't near the eye. It was Miami/Homestead. Anyone who has lived in Ft.lauderdale has probably not faced a damaging hurricane. Andrew wa…

We haven't had a major hurricane make landfall in FL in 12 years. People begin to forget the fear and seriousness in that time.

I grew up in Orlando and my high school gym was a shelter for those displaced by Andrew. That stretches back quite a bit farther than 12 years, I know, but the image of folks living in the gym has been seared into my brain. It's part of the reason why I asked the original question.

Re: Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands

#129

Post by aseipp »

jofer wrote: post #92
rdtsc wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you think of city mayor's decision not to order a larger scale evacuation. NYT seems to think it was absolutely (their word) the right thing to do. Being on the ground there, would you agree?

The last time an evacuation was called for in Houston (Rita), over 100 people died trying to evacuate before the hurricane even hit. (e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Rita#Evacuation_deat... ) In terms of life lost, evacuating would have been a disaster. You'd have had gridlocked interstates underwater. Mayor Turner absolutely made the right call by not evacuating. Living in Houston, I'm probably a bit bi…

Agreed. I live in Austin now, but I lived in Houston before this (Ike hit about a week after I moved to H-town, what a welcome party). Turner made absolutely the right decision. It was very unclear until very close to landfall how powerful it was going to really be (tropical storm -> Cat 4 in ~50 hours.) That isn't enough time. For ~4 million people, like a week isn't enough time...

If a panic had ensued from an evac order? Honestly, I believe thousands would have died from the roads flooding and being trapped in their cars. It would have been a living nightmare, more than it already was.

(Greg Abbott, on the other hand, did recommend evacuation. I can only assume he did this because his only purpose for existence is to be a gigantic piece of shit, and ruin people's lives in any way he can, but whatever.)

Re: Category 5 Hurricane Irma Brings 180-MPH Winds to Bear on Caribbean Islands

#130

Post by swasheck »

KVFinn wrote: post #75
swasheck wrote: post #17

I know that this is slightly off-topic so feel free to downvote if you feel so inclined: There's a lot of money that goes into disaster relief and recovery. I think that's great and very worthwhile, thoughts on charity accountability notwithstanding. What I wonder, though, is if there are any organizations that provide pre-relief (prelief?) for disasters. For instance, the comment in this discussion about the airline…

>There's a lot of money that goes into disaster relief and recovery. I think that's great and very worthwhile, thoughts on charity accountability notwithstanding. >What I wonder, though, is if there are any organizations that provide pre-relief (prelief?) for disasters. Future Aid: Why Prevention Efforts in Humanitarian Aid Often Fail https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZwFG63TNxQ http://aid.works/2016/10/billions-spent…

Wow! Thanks for this. I think it directly confronts many of the thoughts that I'd been entertaining.
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