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Ethereum crashed from $319 to 10c on GDAX after ‘multimillion dollar’ trade

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Re: Ethereum crashed from $319 to 10c on GDAX after ‘multimillion dollar’ trade

#121

Post by iak8god »

lordlimecat wrote: post #119
iak8god wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are no ASICs for Ethereum. It's currently impossible to get latest gen GPUs from any retailer, or for anything close to retail price on eBay, because there's a mad rush to get into Ether mining.

My recollection of how Bitcoin turned out indicates that most of those people will not make money. That, in fact, the simple rules of how markets work mean that most cannot make money, on several counts: * Those with resources will have an edge, and will buy an optimal number of GPUs to get return before the price is driven down * Anyone without resources will not be able to mine quickly enough to get a return before…

> All of this means that anyone contemplating whether they should get into mining already has their answer: "no".

That certainly seems to be the consensus on the mining forums I'm following. /r/EtherMining is now inundated with people who lack the very basic skills needed to assemble a computer and run mining software, but are attracted to the prospect of free money. Many of those people also lack the ability to do basic arithmetic and the sense to realize that the only way they will turn a profit is if the USD value of ETH rises sharply -- and that if that happens they'd be better off in any case just buying ETH now instead of blowing $2000 - 3000 on equipment.

Re: Ethereum crashed from $319 to 10c on GDAX after ‘multimillion dollar’ trade

#122

Post by polotics »

beberlei wrote: post #75
ty_a wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>but ethereum/bitcoin aren't fiat currencies? Fiat currencies are created by fiat (legal declaration). No government created either, so no, they are not fiat currencies.

you can assume that the bitcoin/ethereum code-base are the modern/digital version of a legal declaration. But I meant in the sense that they don't have intrinsic value like gold.

Well you cannot eat, drink or breath gold either... Gold is impossible to fake, but ETFs based on double-counted collateral and various other fixing fixes have made it a fool's errand to preserve capital with gold.

Re: Ethereum crashed from $319 to 10c on GDAX after ‘multimillion dollar’ trade

#123

Post by sctb »

fivestar wrote: post #32
fivestar wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I somewhat empathize with all those use cases (not the drug users), especially in the totalitarian world we inhabit, I don't think a money system based on black market transactions is going to survive. Weekend drug users, indeed! Fact: Venezualans screwed themselves because they were too dumb to know that Marxism sucks. Fact: The Chinese avoid doing the hard work of reforming their nation and instead allow a fa…

You people suck and you basically deserve everything that is coming to you.

We've banned this account for continuing to violate the guidelines after we've asked you repeatedly to stop.

Re: Ethereum crashed from $319 to 10c on GDAX after ‘multimillion dollar’ trade

#125

Post by samkxu »

alimbada wrote: post #101
DiNovi wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was actually a cascade - the market sell brought it down to 224, but then there was a crush of margin calls and market stop loss orders, which triggered all the way down to 10 cents. Wish I was there to scoop some!

Yep, someone who bought ETH during the pre-sale cashed out ( https://etherscan.io/address/0x7d551397f79a2988b064afd0efebe... ) which then triggered the cascade.

Please stop spreading this misinformation. If you look at the transaction, the only thing that happened was using the safe split contract which essentially gives the owner equivalent ETC.

Re: Ethereum crashed from $319 to 10c on GDAX after ‘multimillion dollar’ trade

#126

Post by onestone »

strictnein wrote: post #73
iak8god wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are no ASICs for Ethereum. It's currently impossible to get latest gen GPUs from any retailer, or for anything close to retail price on eBay, because there's a mad rush to get into Ether mining.

That's not quite accurate. You can get Nvidia stuff, sometimes at MSRP, sometimes a little over. It's the AMD hardware that's impossible to find.

Well no, actually. Good Nvidia cards are also nearly extinct, because they are actually still profitable for Ethereum mining. So when people couldn't find AMD cards, they settled for bying Nvidia.

Unlike the situation with Bitcoin a few years ago, Nvidia cards are ok for mining Ethereum (something like 40-50% lower hash rate than AMD, but still very much profitable).

Re: Ethereum crashed from $319 to 10c on GDAX after ‘multimillion dollar’ trade

#127

Post by unknown_apostle »

lordlimecat wrote: post #117
unknown_apostle wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes it's sometimes called a stink bid. Lots of contexts where this kind of bidding is a good idea. E.g. after a really bad year you can expect big price swings around tax loss selling season (nov-dec), where people take out their frustration on their worst performers. Doesn't always work but if you've already identified a couple of trainwreck stocks that you think deserve a second chance, getting a stink bid filled f…

>>Timing the market >Doesn't always work Thats putting it lightly, you're describing some form of survivorship bias. If it were that reliable and simple the major active fund managers could score reliable index-beating returns just off of Nov-Dec. As it turns out, rules like that don't work, which is why passive index funds inevitably win out over attempts to time the market.

"survivorship bias". Bullshit.

In the specific example I gave, I talked about putting in stink bids for burned down companies you already wanted anyway, during the 1 or 2 month window when its stock has a big chance of getting another kick in the teeth for simple fiscal reasons.

The cost for trying this is pretty much zero. The worst that can happen is that the price never hits the bid and then you have to be content with the regular price. If it does work, you may get an additional 30% or whatever discount on the company.

If the rest of the story doesn't work out, it won't be caused by the extra discount. So stink bids literally do help performance and active investors do put them in and a lot of them do suck for a lot of reasons and these tax loss selling waves do happen despite everyone knowing about it because they are caused by regulations.

"passive index funds inevitably win out over attempts to time the market" This is a totally different discussion, not about the chance and impact of getting a low bid filled, but about efficiency of markets and whether people who beat some chosen benchmark are lucky or skilled.

But maybe there is a relationship. Let me ask you this: do you think Wall Street has ever had a good idea (like ETFs) and didn't take it way too far? Like 3x inverse Venezuelan Beaver Cheese ETFs? If there is a demand for passive index funds, Wall Street will indulge. But to make a passive index fund you need an index. And so they have been puking up a whole circus of indexes. With some of these indexes, especially ones that involve small companies, I wonder what will happen during the next serious drawdown. And so we can get back to the subject of stink bids.

Re: Ethereum crashed from $319 to 10c on GDAX after ‘multimillion dollar’ trade

#129

Post by SubiculumCode »

iak8god wrote: post #121
lordlimecat wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My recollection of how Bitcoin turned out indicates that most of those people will not make money. That, in fact, the simple rules of how markets work mean that most cannot make money, on several counts: * Those with resources will have an edge, and will buy an optimal number of GPUs to get return before the price is driven down * Anyone without resources will not be able to mine quickly enough to get a return before…

> All of this means that anyone contemplating whether they should get into mining already has their answer: "no". That certainly seems to be the consensus on the mining forums I'm following. /r/EtherMining is now inundated with people who lack the very basic skills needed to assemble a computer and run mining software, but are attracted to the prospect of free money. Many of those people also lack the ability to do b…

Curious. Is it at the point where the money earned is less than the cost of electricity, like bitcoin approached?
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