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AlphaGo's next move

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121–130 of 179 posts

Re: AlphaGo's next move

#121
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, Go is a challenging game for computers but even more so for humans. However, for computers, Go is not more challenging than translation, speech to text or driving or understanding a comic book. The progression of superhuman play in famous board games has gone as checker->chess-> go. The more a game relies on memory,tactics and evaluation speed, the quicker it falls. In terms of commonly played perfect inform…

You ignored my post entirely. The fact that it took the most elite ML lab in the world to engineer this solution using proprietary hardware never seen before that's orders of magnitudes faster at evaluating than what's available to the rest of us is a testament to how hard it is to beat Go. For a long time it was believed to be impossible. I am not comparing translation or machine vision to AlphaGo, I am merely point…

> You ignored my post entirely.

I did not. You said Go is in a lot of respect much more challenging than machine translation, speech to text and auto-driving. I merely pointed out that is wrong because the following exists: superhuman go player and the following do not: superhuman machine translation,speech to text and auto-driving. Go is a perfect information game with no shallow traps. Perfect information means unlike poker, information sets are not cross cutting and as such algorithms can leverage the fact that backwards induction is straightforward.

No shallow search traps and perfect information makes things a lot easier from a computational perspective. Driving at a superhuman level would require a sophisticated forward model from a physics perspective, before even considering predicting other drivers. Speech to text and fluent translation without brittle edge-cases requires hierarchical predictive models that capture long term correlations and higher order concepts. I'm not disputing Go is hard but the hurdles: high branching factor and no evaluation heuristic were the core difficulties. Training via reinforcement in a way that broke correlations which get in the way of learning and integrating roll out with the neural nets (breaking evaluation into value and policy as they did) was the Deepmind's team genius. The roll out and evaluation are what eat up so much electricity.

> The fact that it took the most elite ML lab in the world to engineer this solution using proprietary hardware never seen before that's orders of magnitudes faster at evaluating than what's available to the rest of us is a testament to how hard it is to beat Go.

AlphaGo can run on a GPU, just not (for now) as efficiently as on a TPU. Deepmind is indeed unmatched in output. AlphaGo did build on the 2006 breakthrough paper on tree based bandit algorithms. There was another important 2014 paper on the use of conv-nets on Go. Deepmind did amazing work, but it was not out of nowhere.

And, sure Go is hard. But from a computational perspective, it is still much easier than being able to run up a hill or climb a tree. Humans are just not very good at playing combinatorial games, so the ceiling is low.

> I am merely pointing out that it comes with a broad set of challenges that you aren't even aware of and is a lot harder thank you think.

That is absolutely untrue. I have a decent understanding of the implementation and a strong understanding of the underlying algorithms.

Re: AlphaGo's next move

#122

There was a time not too far back when people used to be considered a "genius" for their ability to memorize things well. Nowadays nobody thinks of them as geniuses. Also, people used to be considered geniuses for knowing a lot of things. Nowadays information is just a Google search away, so knowing a lot doesn't really mean as much as it used to. What matters more nowadays is your ability to learn synthesize the thi…

Good explanation why genius is usually a stupid word to use.

Re: AlphaGo's next move

#123
The problem is an AI that is good at Go is not at all transferable to any other game. However, a human prodigy can apply their genius to many domains.

Re: AlphaGo's next move

#124

There was a time not too far back when people used to be considered a "genius" for their ability to memorize things well. Nowadays nobody thinks of them as geniuses. Also, people used to be considered geniuses for knowing a lot of things. Nowadays information is just a Google search away, so knowing a lot doesn't really mean as much as it used to. What matters more nowadays is your ability to learn synthesize the thi…

AlphaGo is better than humans at seeing patterns and making inferences based on simulations of possibilities, within a limited and perfect information domain. Several professional Go players have described AlphaGo's play as 'creative' and 'beautiful'.

What if technology similar to AlphaGo can be generalized to domains with imperfect information (Libratus from CMU recently beat top Poker players. DeepStack which is NN-based achieved a similar feat.) and to other domains (DeepMind is working on Starcraft.)? What are our remaining competitive advantages against machines?

What are future geniuses supposed to be like or to do (assuming your presupposition)?

Re: AlphaGo's next move

#125
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Plus, these games are deterministic, whereas everything in life is a stochastic process.

Only because you lack information.

Actually at the lowest level there's this whole quantum business that says exactly otherwise.

Re: AlphaGo's next move

#126

I remember vividly in 1997 when Deep Blue defeated Kasparov, and I was a competitive chess player. The mystique of the game was immediately lost for me, and I never found the passion for the game that I once had. My heart goes out to the sea of Go players now searching for meaning in the game. At the very least we can take this signal as a true indicator that our world is close to being completely upheaved by intelli…

I played at the local go club this afternoon. Nobody has a problem with AlphaGo and the mystique of the game. Everybody knew go was about to be conquered, even the younger pros. We didn't expect it to happen so quickly but IMHO the sooner the better: we're going to have great tools to analyze games and maybe get better at the game. We're playing against people anyway and it's a great game.

Re: AlphaGo's next move

#127

There was a time not too far back when people used to be considered a "genius" for their ability to memorize things well. Nowadays nobody thinks of them as geniuses. Also, people used to be considered geniuses for knowing a lot of things. Nowadays information is just a Google search away, so knowing a lot doesn't really mean as much as it used to. What matters more nowadays is your ability to learn synthesize the thi…

Google made fact recollection less important than before. However, Google itself prefers people who do well on whiteboard interview, which could be solved perfectly by some Google searches! Memorization of historical facts is one thing, but training your memory for fast retrieval of facts and associations is still highly valued. Therefore it is still important to train your memory to the extreme. You'll do something better if you do it more than once.

Re: AlphaGo's next move

#128

I remember vividly in 1997 when Deep Blue defeated Kasparov, and I was a competitive chess player. The mystique of the game was immediately lost for me, and I never found the passion for the game that I once had. My heart goes out to the sea of Go players now searching for meaning in the game. At the very least we can take this signal as a true indicator that our world is close to being completely upheaved by intelli…

I'm a competitive scrabble player, and I suspect it will be less than a decade (and possibly well less) before we have an AI that comfortably outclasses the best human players. (It might never be "unbeatable" due to the luck factor, but it could well, e.g. win 29 games out of every 30). However, it won't affect my enjoyment of the game in any way - it's already clear that board games in general are solvable by an "explore lots of moves with many levels of lookahead" strategy; the thrill lies in the fact that humans playing across a board clearly have to use different techniques to achieve the same result, and you're competing against other humans to see who can do it best.

Indeed, much of the current excitement around AI playing programs lies in the fact that computers are too slow to do the exhaustive brute force tree search either; they need a lot of very clever valuation and pruning techniques to explore more of the tree in less time. It's just a different form of cleverness than what humans do, and there is a lot of feedback between the two communities, with human players helping programmers identify good heuristics, and then computer players uncovering new possibilities for humans to incorporate into their play.

Re: AlphaGo's next move

#129
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But you've just proven cocktailpeanuts point that its about the ability to use the knowledge, not simply recall it.

The ability to use knowledge does not come out of thin air. It is unlikely to find someone who knows how to program C++ extremely well, or solve problems in Quantum Field theory, but does not remember most of the language constructs or mathematical equations. Continuous practice involves putting in the hours at practicing an art or a science, which by itself builds muscle memory about the language syntax/equations et…

“The best geologist is he who has seen the most rocks.” – H. H. Read

Re: AlphaGo's next move

#130

There was a time not too far back when people used to be considered a "genius" for their ability to memorize things well. Nowadays nobody thinks of them as geniuses. Also, people used to be considered geniuses for knowing a lot of things. Nowadays information is just a Google search away, so knowing a lot doesn't really mean as much as it used to. What matters more nowadays is your ability to learn synthesize the thi…

Memory still matters when it matters. For example, when learning a new language. In general, good real-time performance is going to require practice and memorization. It's the trivial stuff you rarely need that's less valued. There are some other things that I think are less valued these days: - Informed speculation counts for less when you could do a search instead. Maybe a good thing? - Cleverness counts less when…

> For example, when learning a new language

That's a good point, because I think this "ability to speak multiple languages" will become commoditized too through technology. You already see pieces of technology that enable you to communicate in realtime (although clunky and not accessible enough at the moment)

I agree that "realtime" aspect would be the last wall that will stand to distinguish humans from machines, that is, until humans can find ways to inject circuits into the brain (which is already being explored by multiple entrepreneurs and scientists)

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