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Scotland to seek second independence referendum

bbc.com

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Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#121

Post by falsedan »

timthelion wrote: post #78
a_name wrote: post #65

However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Is Spain now willing to allow them into the EU or will they veto their membership application because of their issues with Catalonia? Still seems like racist SNP are still in denial

Is SNP racist? I honestly don't know. But it seems staying in Europe would suggest a pro-imigrant stance.

> Is SNP racist?

Some people see the SNP's strong desire to separate from Westminster as anti-English.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#122

Post by Someone1234 »

falsedan wrote: post #112
Someone1234 wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson higher net satisfaction rates higher than Sturgeon In Scotland? I'm extremely skeptical.

They must have meant 'in all of UK' by 'net'. In Scotland, impossible!

I was wondering if that's what they meant. But if they did it is an absurd statistic given that only Scotland gets to vote in their own referendum.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#123

Post by pm90 »

ruairidhwm wrote: post #102
Someone1234 wrote: post #100

Disclaimer: I'm English. One can hardly blame them. I was a unionist during the first referendum simply because I thought we were stronger together and felt that the Scottish made the UK as a whole more liberal (which, to be clear, is a GOOD thing). But after Brexit one cannot blame or criticise them for wanting to leave. I want to leave too! If their choice is being part of a fairly progressive EU or a conservative/…

Disclaimer: I'm Scottish Really appreciate the well-wishing on it. I would love for there to still be a very open relationship between the two countries. We've got plenty of space up here and a booming tech scene! Agreed on clarification with the EU membership but I think this is something that the SNP have been working on and that we can expect to see follow-up announcements. Interesting times!

Interesting to see what might happen post Brexit if Scotland does become Independent and stays in the EU. London has been a great place for International companies to set up shop to access the EU market and labor force...I wonder if they will simply relocate to Scotland? England only business matters could also be handled from within Scotland itself.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#124

Post by cmdkeen »

falsedan wrote: post #107
jankotek wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Scotland is fairly small country, starting their own currency does not make much sense. Monte Negro is using euro, and is not even part of EU yet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montenegro_and_the_euro

Scotland already has three banks issuing their own bank notes (backed by GBP on deposit in their vaults). Independence wouldn't change that, except that the names on the notes would have to be changed from Pounds Stirling.

Those banks also have access to the Bank of England as a lender of last resort and the international market's backing for the UK's current economic policy. Scotland has a fairly developed financial sector, the currency issue is a lot more complicated than "pick one".

Pegging your currency to another when you don't have the fundamentals to match it tends to be of interest to George Soros, especially when you don't have much in the way of foreign currency reserves to defend it.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#125

Post by jpetso »

k-mcgrady wrote: post #99
aetherson wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I understand the truth that staying in the Pound is important to Scottish voters, I don't understand why. The Euro seems like a very close substitute to the Pound. They're both strong, largely un-inflated currencies that a sovereign Scotland will not control.

>> While I understand the truth that staying in the Pound is important to Scottish voters, I don't understand why. I've always heard the argument that things are more expensive in the Euro. I know people in countries where they switched to the Euro and salaries remained the same while prices of goods went up. I'm not sure why this happens (or even if it's true) but it's a reason a lot of people are against losing the…

My Grandma was saying this a lot. With some economic headwinds and constant (but not outsized) inflation comparing against a nostalgia currency that stopped inflating years ago, it's exceedingly easy to blame the Euro for making things more expensive.

Adopting it often makes central bank policy more challenging. An outright "Euro makes goods more expensive" statement is an oversimplification though, don't take it at face value and always ask for objective inflation data relating to the particular country in question.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#126

Post by vidarh »

Someone1234 wrote: post #100

Disclaimer: I'm English. One can hardly blame them. I was a unionist during the first referendum simply because I thought we were stronger together and felt that the Scottish made the UK as a whole more liberal (which, to be clear, is a GOOD thing). But after Brexit one cannot blame or criticise them for wanting to leave. I want to leave too! If their choice is being part of a fairly progressive EU or a conservative/…

> I want to leave too!

There was a brief desire to start an independence movement for London... It might very well happen (starting a group, not independence itself - if that ever happens it'll be decades) if Brexit gets too nasty and Scotland leaves and causes rest-UK to be even more hostile to our concerns.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#127

Post by falsedan »

Y_Y wrote: post #120
edblarney wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

" If we are to learn the lessons of the Brexit referendum, you need consensus to enact any major change to people's citizenship rights. Consensus there is not." UK citizens were never given a vote on their 'citizenship' rights in the EU. UK citizens only voted to join the EEC - not the EU. They voted to join what was essentially a 'trade block'. Not a supra-federal state. (UK citizens were not given a vote on the tre…

This post seems to have become a victim of "disagreement downvoting". Whether or not it's correct I think it's a well made point, I wish the moderation system worked more for contribution than consensus.

It's off-topic: the subject is Scotland independence, not the failings of the democratic processes of the EU.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#128

Post by pjc50 »

mrec wrote: post #90
therealmarv wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well there is really no guarantee but Scotland will pass all tests easily and whole EU will probably help them ;)

Is that still true? AIUI the Stability and Growth Pact [1] requires EU members to limit their deficits to 3% of GDP, and Scotland's deficit in 2016 was approaching 10% after North Sea oil revenues collapsed. Right now it's only fiscal transfers from England via the Barnett formula keeping Scottish spending afloat, and neither spending cuts nor tax rises are traditional political winners. Which is not to say it's impo…

Doesn't the stability & growth pack only apply to Euro membership? Most EU countries aren't within that 3% anyway.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#129

Post by krona »

Someone1234 wrote: post #105
krona wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Furthermore, given the 99% fall in oil revenue since the previous referendum, the Union dividend (£9bn / year) and a deficit of 10% GDP, and state aid rules within the EU, the economic case for independence has dwindled, to put it mildly. Politically, the case for independence is on the downside; both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson have higher net satisfaction rates than Sturgeon in Scotland, and the likelihood of a g…

> both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson higher net satisfaction rates higher than Sturgeon In Scotland? I'm extremely skeptical.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/ruth-davidson-overtake...

From mid-september 2016. Couldn't find a more recent poll.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#130

Post by neverminder »

I see this as a lose-lose scenario. If Scotland votes to split - it is effectively the end of UK as we've come to know it for a very long time. Fracturing is almost always a bad idea and bigger countries almost always do better than the smaller ones. If they vote to remain that will be bad as well, because it will embolden the politicians (tories in this specific case) that they can get away with anything (breaking up the country with their disastrous Brexit in this particular case). I am a european living in UK.
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