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How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

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Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#121

The general direction of the Trump plan regarding H-1b is the way to go. The lottery needs to be replaced with a demand system where the highest salaries get slots. A floor of $100,000/yr should exist and adjust for inflation. Next, generously expand the green card fast track, as this category of employee, as an immigrant, is a free agent to move among companies or to start their own business. To date, as we all know…

The H1B as it is has many problems, but a big salary floor is not the way to go in my opinion. Remember H1B is not just for tech workers. If you want to hire, say, an interpreter of a specific foreign language to work on a community in rural Alabama temporarily, a $100,000 minimum wage would be absurd. They instead need to go after the companies that learned to game the system. I'm not sure what the solution is here.…

> They instead need to go after the companies that learned to game the system.

I'm not sure if there's a way to prevent global labor arbitrage. Multinational corporations will shift labor to countries with the lowest wages.

Perhaps they should put a multiplying factor on payroll taxes that's proportional to the total non-US labor wages paid (directly or indirectly) for producing a product. All expenses should be default considered as foreign labor-based unless proven otherwise. It would introduce a ton of paperwork initially, but then everyone will be incentivized to produce documentation showing US labor-produced products to prevent the increase in taxes.

Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#122
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In practice, it's necessary that it be sufficient for the vast majority of the cases. It's not worth it for most to risk the substantial financial/time outlay to travel/move halfway around the world to visit a country that has a good chance of not letting you in once you arrive on its doorstep.

You think there is a 'good chance' most visa holders will not be allowed entry into the United States this year? The US Issued ~10,000,000 Total Visas in 2015[1] while the current temporary ban on entry only effects at worst ~90,000[2] outstanding visas. Which means roughly ~1% of visas were effected. While a large number of people I don't think this represents a good chance that the US won't honor the VISAs it has i…

jacquessm explained what I meant with more clarity. Obviously I don't think a majority of visas are going to go unhonored, I was commenting on the effects of making it seem uncertain to people.

Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#123
post #48

The general direction of the Trump plan regarding H-1b is the way to go. The lottery needs to be replaced with a demand system where the highest salaries get slots. A floor of $100,000/yr should exist and adjust for inflation. Next, generously expand the green card fast track, as this category of employee, as an immigrant, is a free agent to move among companies or to start their own business. To date, as we all know…

Unfortunately this salary requirement means immigration will turn even more into a pay-to-play kind of deal. If you have money (or skills/education) borders disappear and if you're broke you're stuck in a place that offers no decent opportunities. America was built on "Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free", and this H-1B change is another step away from that.

Well H1-b is for temporary foreign workers, so the restrictions would be on the companies hiring foreign workers rather than the immigrants themselves. Personally I think H1-b visas for lower end workers are just an excuse for companies who want to treat their workers poorly by offering lower wages and benefits than they would get with American workers. And of course that contributes to unemployment among low income Americans who would otherwise have these jobs. By all means we can have a mechanism that is more indifferent to money when we look at other categories of immigration.

Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#124

The general direction of the Trump plan regarding H-1b is the way to go. The lottery needs to be replaced with a demand system where the highest salaries get slots. A floor of $100,000/yr should exist and adjust for inflation. Next, generously expand the green card fast track, as this category of employee, as an immigrant, is a free agent to move among companies or to start their own business. To date, as we all know…

It seems this is about to happen soon, a draft of this new executive order was leaked and viewed by Axios yesterday [1]: "A draft of Trump's executive order viewed by Axios directs the Secretary of Homeland Security to consider ways to "make the process of H-1B allocation more efficient and ensure the beneficiaries of the program are the best and the brightest." That could mean replacing the current lottery system wi…

"Wage-based hiring means companies may miss out on mid-level workers they still have trouble filling with qualified Americans."

This seems a bit ridiculous. Yea, they will miss mid-level workers at the current price point but if there is a lack of supply of mid-level works the price (salary) will rise for Americans and the supply of mid-level Americans will begin to increase. A win-win for mid-level Americans... not a win-win for the Tech Companies though

Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#125

The general direction of the Trump plan regarding H-1b is the way to go. The lottery needs to be replaced with a demand system where the highest salaries get slots. A floor of $100,000/yr should exist and adjust for inflation. Next, generously expand the green card fast track, as this category of employee, as an immigrant, is a free agent to move among companies or to start their own business. To date, as we all know…

It seems this is about to happen soon, a draft of this new executive order was leaked and viewed by Axios yesterday [1]: "A draft of Trump's executive order viewed by Axios directs the Secretary of Homeland Security to consider ways to "make the process of H-1B allocation more efficient and ensure the beneficiaries of the program are the best and the brightest." That could mean replacing the current lottery system wi…

> "The demand in the job market is not always captured by the highest salary,"

I don't see how we can have the combination of low salary, high demand, and a deficit of supply. It sounds like the proper economic adjustment here is to increase salary. I imagine the only reason the adjustment hasn't happened is because wages are sticky.

Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#126

The general direction of the Trump plan regarding H-1b is the way to go. The lottery needs to be replaced with a demand system where the highest salaries get slots. A floor of $100,000/yr should exist and adjust for inflation. Next, generously expand the green card fast track, as this category of employee, as an immigrant, is a free agent to move among companies or to start their own business. To date, as we all know…

It seems this is about to happen soon, a draft of this new executive order was leaked and viewed by Axios yesterday [1]: "A draft of Trump's executive order viewed by Axios directs the Secretary of Homeland Security to consider ways to "make the process of H-1B allocation more efficient and ensure the beneficiaries of the program are the best and the brightest." That could mean replacing the current lottery system wi…

> "The demand in the job market is not always captured by the highest salary,"

I don't see how we can have the combination of low salary, high demand, and a deficit of supply. It sounds like the proper economic adjustment here is to increase salary. I imagine the only reason the adjustment hasn't happened is because wages are sticky.

Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As long as there is a cap on these visas, they should be distributed in the most efficient manner, i.e. through an auction. Anything else is wasteful.

The question would be why have a cap at all.

There is no reason if one is OK with a nearly unlimited supply of cheap labor pricing out local competition and/or depressing wages.

If a hypothetical person thinks "free markets über allies" of course they're fine with unlimited visas depressing wages and increasing competition. (I don't know if that's your view, this is just a hypothetical.)

On the other hand old farts like me already have an advantage over the average HN or Reddit reader in that our education cost far less than theirs.

So the the question becomes is it fair to bring in foreign talent who (for example) may have been educated at little or no cost to compete with Americans buried under a mound of student debt?

Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#128

No matter what happens in the US immigration department, we already know things are moving fast in India and China. 2.5 billion people versus 60-120k H1b's per year?

Yeah but America has a lot more established companies, universities, and infrastructure. To get the required resources for the 2.5 billion people in China and India is gonna be a while.

Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#129
post #74
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you want to hire, say, an interpreter of a specific foreign language to work on a community in rural Alabama temporarily, a $100,000 minimum wage would be absurd. Wow, that's a really important point. I'm so in the tech-news bubble that I'd never heard anybody say that before - thanks for pointing that out!

http://www.myvisajobs.com/Reports/2017-H1B-Visa-Category.asp...

sounds like each job class needs it's own minimum.

Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#130
Tech salaries are high and unemployment is low. End of story. There is no problem that needs solving. So sad to see so much ignorance over immigration. Ignorance because tech immigration is not hurting the economy, and Muslim immigration isn't killing people.
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