I would have thought you'd want to go for delivery vans before semi-trailers.
Master Plan, Part Deux
121–130 of 705 posts
Re: Master Plan, Part Deux
#122> We expect that worldwide regulatory approval will require something on the order of 6 billion miles (10 billion km). Current fleet learning is happening at just over 3 million miles (5 million km) per day. This seems very significant for Tesla vs competitors. Yes Google has a strong technology lead today, but how long will that last when Tesla is collecting more miles of data every day than Google has collected in…
Great metric to establish that seems reasonable and is heavily skewed in their favour.
Re: Master Plan, Part Deux
#123My points of skepticism: 1. Semis . A typical long haul semi gets well under 10MPG. In some cases not much more than half that. They are heavy and need a lot of energy to move. A Tesla Model S weighs 4650 lbs and has a range of a couple of hundred miles. A semi truck can weigh up to 80,000 lbs. That is a lot of weight to get rolling and a lot to pull up a grade. Semis spend a large part of their time driving at highw…
Agree with part 3. I fail to see why anyone who is willing to pay a premium for a Tesla car would be willing to let random strangers into their (new) car, unless the benefits far outweighs the cost/risks, but in that case, if the other car user has to pay a high price to use a Tesla for his commute, why not just use Uber instead?
This can probably only work when the car is old such that its value has already been depreciated significantly.
Re: Master Plan, Part Deux
#124Earlier quoted context omitted.
The buses could have falcon wing doors, just like the Model X: http://i.imgur.com/40o2Uvd.jpg
But then half you lose easy access for the half of seats not on the sidewalk side. There's not a good way to lose the aisle without condensing down to only a couple seats across.
One long bench
Re: Master Plan, Part Deux
#125> We expect that worldwide regulatory approval will require something on the order of 6 billion miles (10 billion km). Current fleet learning is happening at just over 3 million miles (5 million km) per day. So he is essentially say, in at most five in a half years, they'll be ready for fully self driving cars?
He is saying the government will be ready to approve them then.
Re: Master Plan, Part Deux
#126> via massive fleet learning
Is Tesla going to make this data freely available, to accelerate the development of safer autonomous driving software? Given that it's "morally reprehensible to delay release" of autopilot, it is also morally reprehensible not to publicly release such data if more groups working on the task will lead to safer software.
Re: Master Plan, Part Deux
#127Earlier quoted context omitted.
I swear to god he could do it all just as described and there will still be people who have nothing to say but "meh." Blows my mind.
I'm still waiting for him to deliver on his original promises. Like creating a profitable electric car company. I give him credit for SpaceX, but Tesla's main product so far has been hopes and dreams.
Have you driven a Tesla?
Their product is very good.
Re: Master Plan, Part Deux
#128Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sure, but that's still ~3x more per employee than Tesla.
but tesla's production rate is increasing. the end of q2 saw rates of over 2k cars/week, which would be on target for >100k/year, over twice 2015's rate.
Which is still not the 500000 cars/year they need.
Re: Master Plan, Part Deux
#129"A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018." What that really means: Tesla is going to lose a ton of money per car on the Model 3, or raise the price, until at least 2022. T…
Ford can have fewer employees per car because they're at full scale, they've outsourced nearly all their engineering and have outsourced their sales as well via an antiquated dealer model. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hf15nMnayXk
This, citing employee numbers is somewhat meaningless without any data on the number of non-employees working in your supply chain. Could indeed very well be a case of outsourcing differences rather than a difference in productivity.
Re: Master Plan, Part Deux
#130If this article is accurate, the Master Plan, Part Un narrative is a bit more nuanced.
http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2013/05/tesl...