Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis • Hacker News Board

Re: Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis

#121

Post by coldtea » Mon, Jul 11, 2016, 11:54 AM UTC

kbart wrote: post #103

rubber_duck wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The EU needs a face, parties with cross-border support, democracy, mandate... You know what's funny - US is constantly railing about inequality - meanwhile median income between poorest and richest EU members is close to 10x - in the US it's ~2-3 between states. It's no longer "the 1% are exploiting us" narrative and "democracy will save us" - these are similarly sized countries where people are 10x richer in one co…

"meanwhile median income between poorest and richest EU members is close to 10x - in the US it's ~2-3 between states" That's comparing apples to oranges. Country != state.

>That's comparing apples to oranges

Which is totally valid, since both are fruit, and we can e.g. compare their nutricional value to decide what to eat. Or their selling price, to decide what to buy. Etc.

>Country != state

That's kind of the parent's whole point. That countries are the closest thing the EU has to states, and that they must get much closer to states for EU to function properly.

Re: Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis

#122

Post by dredmorbius » Mon, Jul 11, 2016, 11:57 AM UTC

blahi wrote: post #25

ZenoArrow wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's worse than just fractional reserve banking. The vast majority of the money supply is based off debt. Would recommend watching the 4 minute introduction on the Positive Money homepage for a quick overview of the current situation with money creation: http://positivemoney.org/

The world's population in the 1900 was 1,5B people. By 1970, it was twice that. By the year 2000, it was twice that again! And by 2050 it will be 9B. Where does the money for all those people would come from if not from borrowing (money from the future)?

Where do cricket points come from?

Money comes from the same place.

It's not substance. It's not energy.

(Though yes, it's exchangeable for both. And time. And space.)

It's information. About obligations and demand rights.

It can be created as fractional reserve. Or simply issued into existence (thogh market ops make pricing more transparent).

While we're at it, I'm not entirely certain of that 9 billion figure either.

Re: Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis

#123

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Jul 11, 2016, 12:02 PM UTC

izacus wrote: post #61

antr wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does Merkel got to do with bad risk management and lax lending criteria by Italian banks? I struggle to find a link between your comment and the article.

Because now Euro doesn't let them tank their own economy by devaluating currency to hide the corruption.

[deleted]

Re: Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis

#124

Post by cpr » Mon, Jul 11, 2016, 12:08 PM UTC

guelo wrote: post #24

It’s easy for Merkel to insist that Italy has to strictly follow EU rules since she doesn’t have to win an Italian election. The Euro just seems like a complete failure. Giant economies are limping along with 20% unemployment, unable to recover 8 years after the recession. In contrast the US has managed an OK recovery, now closing in on full employment. The problem is that each EU national leader is accountable only…

If you think the US has managed a recovery, I'm afraid you're in denial. The US unemployment picture is horrible, but being masked by official government figures that ignore the people who've given up looking for work, and including people working less than full time at marginal jobs.

Re: Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis

#125

Post by sievebrain » Mon, Jul 11, 2016, 12:10 PM UTC

tremon wrote: post #117

sievebrain wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This sort of argument is merely playing with words and has no intellectual merit. The EU's directives MUST be passed into law due to the treaties involved. A country cannot simply refuse to implement directives it does not agree with, without also leaving the EU. Failure to obey the rules is met with fines and other forms of punishment. Whilst a handful of lawyers may pretend this is not a transfer of sovereignty, no…

The EU's directives MUST be passed into law due to the treaties involved. A country cannot simply refuse to implement directives it does not agree with You're leaving out the part where every single nation has a veto on every single directive before it takes effect.

Left out because it's not true. EU moved to qualified majority voting for the majority of issues years ago.

Re: Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis

#126

Post by sievebrain » Mon, Jul 11, 2016, 12:11 PM UTC

vidarh wrote: post #93

sievebrain wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This sort of argument is merely playing with words and has no intellectual merit. The EU's directives MUST be passed into law due to the treaties involved. A country cannot simply refuse to implement directives it does not agree with, without also leaving the EU. Failure to obey the rules is met with fines and other forms of punishment. Whilst a handful of lawyers may pretend this is not a transfer of sovereignty, no…

The larger difference is that the member state is free refuse to implement the law and choose to leave - the directive can not be imposed. You may consider that just playing with words, but it makes the difference between being legal, and being a violation of constitutional law of a large number of member states, and as a result it makes a substantial difference in how the EU can be legally structured.

By that logic no law can ever be imposed, because you're free to try and secede.

The EU makes it as difficult as possible to 'secede' as evidenced by their actions post-Brexit. Their minds are 100% focused on how to make it as painful as possible to reduce the chances of anyone else leaving. This is the mentality of a law enforcer, not a peer.

Re: Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis

#127

Post by paganel » Mon, Jul 11, 2016, 12:14 PM UTC

guelo wrote: post #24

It’s easy for Merkel to insist that Italy has to strictly follow EU rules since she doesn’t have to win an Italian election. The Euro just seems like a complete failure. Giant economies are limping along with 20% unemployment, unable to recover 8 years after the recession. In contrast the US has managed an OK recovery, now closing in on full employment. The problem is that each EU national leader is accountable only…

The problems Europe faces are structural, the same as Japan's. I'm on my phone and in vacation so don't have enough time to comment, but tgat's enough saying that Europe being behind the US has almost nothing to do with the Euro, it's just that the Americans work more (for better or for worse), there's a lot less labor regulation (for better or worse) and that's a totally different spirit present in America (I'm European). Capitalism can only win if it grows, like it does in the States, but the people of Europe have decided that it was time to take a break and start enjoying life for a moment (for better or worse)

Re: Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis

#128

Post by naveen99 » Mon, Jul 11, 2016, 12:14 PM UTC

adventured wrote: post #86

blahi wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The rich people will be less rich in that situation. They are in a similar situation now with the current inflation, but growth of money has to be tied to economic growth or otherwise the rich will feel screwed. I'm not saying it's good, but you cannot screw the rich. The current situation is a compromise and a very sensible at that I might add, despite all the noise from tin-foil hatters. There are also other, pract…

The rich do better than everyone else in times of inflation. Their assets are heavily liquid and easily moved. They have very little to fear from higher rates of inflation, it enables them to outperform everyone else that is more income dependent and less asset rich. The poor have the most to fear, by far. That's also why the rich have done so well since the year 2000, the Fed's policies have been heavy on dollar deb…

I would say it's not a rich vs poor issue. The people who lose money with inflation are the ones who are over exposed to their currency: pensioners close to retirement, forex traders or foreign governments who bet on that currency, black market players who have to hold large amounts of cash without investing it, banks with a lot of fixed 30 year low interest rate mortgages outstanding. Forex players, banks, and foreign governments can be rich, pensioners and black market players can be poor.

Banks actually sell most of the mortgages back to the federal government in the us. Maybe that's the reason us government isn't inflating the dollar too much. They themselves hold most of it through mortgages.

Re: Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis

#129

Post by tonyedgecombe » Mon, Jul 11, 2016, 12:15 PM UTC

ZenoArrow wrote: post #120

choult wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The BBC is clearly doing a pretty good job at being unbiased (as per its mandate) as _everyone_ thinks it's biased against _them_. In reality, in an attempt at balance, the Beeb generall gives too much time to fringe views, often lending the appearance of legitimacy to them. (cf. Their climate change coverage up until fairly recently)

The BBC has a bias for whomever is in power. You can see it most clearly in their political coverage. For example, compare this... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpkpUaJF8Og With this... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVe5foPumHE

I'm not sure what your seeing, the Tories weren't plotting against their leader whereas Labour were and still are, no journalist can ignore that.

Re: Italy’s teetering banks will be Europe’s next crisis

#130

Post by mseebach » Mon, Jul 11, 2016, 12:21 PM UTC

bonzini wrote: post #96

mseebach wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That limit either was, or was very close to being, ignored in Cyprus. You'd be foolish to bet €100k on that limit being hard if the shit hits the fan in Italy (which is a lot bigger than Cyprus and doesn't have anywhere near as much dirty Russian money they can grab instead). Also, the limit is for nought if Italy leaves the Eurozone and your savings are forcefully converted to "New Lira" (which are then "protected",…

> If you have cash in Italian banks, GTFOASAP That makes no sense at all. Just don't keep cash and invest everything except for a small contingency fund.

That's my point exactly. Sorry if it wasn't clear.