The bubble is going to blow hard. Period.
Magic Leap raises $827M in Series C
121–130 of 183 posts
Re: Magic Leap raises $827M in Series C
#122I've been working on AR and related technologies for almost the last decade and I've been part of the first handful of people working on Google Glass. Bottom line I've seen a lot of promising AR technologies come and go. My personal take on this is that they may indeed have some very good, if not revolutionary, display technology. However : The big, big obstacle to delivering credible AR is latency. Contrary to VR, t…
Would it be possible to artificially delay the world by 15ish ms? A person would have to fully have a headset on (so it'd be more like VR than AR), but perhaps it could deliver a time-delayed view of the world only once the augmented pieces are ready to render.
Edit: you'd still have the motion-sickness challenge, but perhaps at least the 'layers', so-to-speak, wouldn't appear separately.
Re: Magic Leap raises $827M in Series C
#123I have reliable sources who have tried the tech. It is real, but many years out from mainstream (5-10 seems like a probable range). However, their first teaser video* is almost definitely fake (if I were to place a bet). It looks like a prerendered video, not an interactive application, or even a static lightfield video.
Re: Magic Leap raises $827M in Series C
#124Re: Magic Leap raises $827M in Series C
#125Glaciers are melting; forests are burning; coral reefs are blanching; ocean levels are rising, water tables are dropping. The ecosystems that sustain our food supply chains are collapsing; those that aren't collapsing, are being poisoned; and the tiny niches relatively immune from these threats are being bought by hedge funds and private equity firms. Our education system is being gutted; so are our retirement plans.…
You could have said the same thing about the black plague and the printing press in the 14th century...
Except that all of those problems I mentioned are basically man-made, and the solutions are manifestly available to us... if only we'd care to get our act together.
In the face of the Black Death, our species was basically helpless (and there doesn't seem to be any scientific consensus yet as to how, exactly, it "ended.")
Re: Magic Leap raises $827M in Series C
#126I've been working on AR and related technologies for almost the last decade and I've been part of the first handful of people working on Google Glass. Bottom line I've seen a lot of promising AR technologies come and go. My personal take on this is that they may indeed have some very good, if not revolutionary, display technology. However : The big, big obstacle to delivering credible AR is latency. Contrary to VR, t…
Would it be possible to artificially delay the world by 15ish ms? A person would have to fully have a headset on (so it'd be more like VR than AR), but perhaps it could deliver a time-delayed view of the world only once the augmented pieces are ready to render. Edit: you'd still have the motion-sickness challenge, but perhaps at least the 'layers', so-to-speak, wouldn't appear separately.
No. The important thing is keeping your sensory inputs in sync with your vestibular system. There were some research questions about hacking the vestibular system a few years ago.
Re: Magic Leap raises $827M in Series C
#127Earlier quoted context omitted.
Would it be possible to artificially delay the world by 15ish ms? A person would have to fully have a headset on (so it'd be more like VR than AR), but perhaps it could deliver a time-delayed view of the world only once the augmented pieces are ready to render. Edit: you'd still have the motion-sickness challenge, but perhaps at least the 'layers', so-to-speak, wouldn't appear separately.
No. The important thing is keeping your sensory inputs in sync with your vestibular system. There were some research questions about hacking the vestibular system a few years ago.
rsp1984 says that what seperates AR from VR is the need to have latencies zipppy says "what if AR was delayed 15ms to make it equiv. to VR".
Zipppy's intent was to make AR compete with VR, not HVS.
Re: Magic Leap raises $827M in Series C
#128It's easy to think of reasons why this isn't a sound investment. However, here are some thoughts why this may be sensible: * This is largely Google's investment to cover possible future success of Facebook's Occulus or Microsoft's Hololens. * They could have valuable non-tangible patents or employees. This is way past the "acquihire" funding levels, but perhaps the technology itself is valuable. Perhaps they get arou…
> Perhaps they get around that valuation with 100M/year in patent licensing. Patents expire after 25 years, so at 100M p.a. deal for investors is spend 1B to get $2.5B back, two decades later. I'm not sure that even beats fixed interest. Even with continuation it's still around 10% return. As others have pointed out O(1B) is same as O(1).
>Patents expire after 25 years,
Twenty years. At least in the USA.
Carry on.
Re: Magic Leap raises $827M in Series C
#129It's easy to think of reasons why this isn't a sound investment. However, here are some thoughts why this may be sensible: * This is largely Google's investment to cover possible future success of Facebook's Occulus or Microsoft's Hololens. * They could have valuable non-tangible patents or employees. This is way past the "acquihire" funding levels, but perhaps the technology itself is valuable. Perhaps they get arou…
> For perspective, IBM Research provides ~O(1B)/year in revenue from licensing patents.
That is a (common) myth. If you parse IBM statements closely, they talk about that number for intellectual property licensing. I'm not aware that they have ever made a precise statement on patent revenue.
Re: Magic Leap raises $827M in Series C
#130The money flowing into Augmented Reality in general isn't so much about 'augmented reality' as a thing today so much as it's a big audacious bet on it being the next wave of technology that replaces mobile phones.
I believe smartphones will be looked back from the future and seen as what they really are: a clunky way to interact with information.
AR is definitely the future of all interfaces, not an audacious bet at all, pragmatic in fact.