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How Sick Is the Stock Market?

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Re: How Sick Is the Stock Market?

#121
post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Not my area of expertise but I'd imagine it's a function of population and interconnectedness of economies. So the population growth rate of the U.S. is declining, and many developed nations now have negative population growth rate. > I do see that some nation economies will be hurt and others helped as everything will probably revert to a mean to some degree. Right, so would you expect the U.S. economy to be helpe…

> No nation, empire, or civilization in history has managed to sustain global economic dominance indefinitely. The US stock market is made up of mostly multi-national companies. Its a financial center for earth, not an isolated economy. If we talk about civilization at this point in time then its the global civilization of earth we are talking about.

> The US stock market is ... a financial center for earth

This is true currently. But again, there's no reason to assume this will continue forever.

> If we talk about civilization at this point in time then its the global civilization of earth we are talking about.

Nice idea, but I'm unconvinced. What does "the global civilization of earth" even mean? The world always seems more connected than the day before. Of course, in 1914 it seemed more connected than ever before. In 1939 too. Yet our global civilization split apart at the seams and we were thrown into two of the most devastating wars ever. And both hugely impacted the economies of the nations involved. The U.S. has been at war almost continuously for the last 25 years. With whom? The global civilization of Earth?

Even if you restrict your perspective to purely economic matters, to a "global economy," this seems dubious. If we truly have a global economy, it's one disproportionately controlled by a single nation -- a situation many nations are probably unsatisfied with, but currently unable to change.

So you've reached the conclusion that other nations are now content to sit back and let the U.S. run the global economy forever. Where's the evidence? Just because no other country has been able to challenge the U.S.'s dominance over the world economy in the past 50 years, doesn't mean they've accepted this as the natural state of affairs.

Re: How Sick Is the Stock Market?

#122
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Double bottom, that's what happens. Expecting more heights. Long FTSE! edit: Stock market theme is huge for click baits and zerohedge readers. No extremes are healthy and there's too much drama around this.

It's people like you who give chart reading a bad name. There's no double bottom here. A double bottom indicates that a downtrend may have reversed. There's no downtrend on this timeframe. Chart reading is not voodoo, but bad chart reading is worse than voodoo.

Number Wang!

Re: How Sick Is the Stock Market?

#123
post #34
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it looks to me like the stock market has a tendency to follow an exponential curve - or at least a high degree polynomial. I also believe that to a certain extent the stock market is bound to the real world and in the real world growth is currently not following an exponential/high degree polynomial curve. The tension between the two is causing an oscillation to develop which overrides the tendency for high d…

Unfortunately the system operating in the real physical world is based around human behavior, which, despite probably following some heretofore undiscovered law or algorithm, is very difficult to predict.

It's amazing how difficult it is to convince people of the ludicrously obvious.
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