Live data from Hacker News

Why Rent Is So High and Pay So Low

lareviewofbooks.org

121–130 of 229 posts

Re: Why Rent Is So High and Pay So Low

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$313k? That's a pittance compared to Vancouver where the average home is over $1M. Even in the shitty east side with drug-dealers and prostitutes hanging out on your street you still pay over $1M for a detached home.

Fair enough. Perhaps rental was a better comparison. They are very close, and Portland pays way less than Vancouver (in addition to the US not having healthcare) - I'd say it's more expensive to buy in Vancouver, more expensive to rent in Portland. 1. https://www.rentjungle.com/average-rent-in-vancouver-bc-rent... 2. https://www.rentjungle.com/average-rent-in-portland-or-rent-...

Houses in Vancouver are traded equities. They are more subject to external and speculative investors, rather than just local income and demand.

As a result, the price-to-rent ratio has been unreasonable in a similar way to Amazon's stock price.

Re: Why Rent Is So High and Pay So Low

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing nobody mentions is the increasing share of the GDP that the government consumes: http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/total_spending_chart That wealth has to come from somewhere.

The data you point to shows government spending as a share of GDP peaking in FY 2009, dropping through FY 2014, rising slighting to FY 2016, and with a projected sharp bend upward beginning in FY 2018. The only recent period of a significant runup in government spending (federal or overall) as a percent of GDP was approximately the second term of the most recent Bush Administration, and the only periods with any sust…

The growth from 30 to 35% 1970 to present is enormous. People often point to the 1950's as the good old economic days, and the percentage was much lower then, as well.

Re: Why Rent Is So High and Pay So Low

#123

you dont know high cost of living with low salary if you haven't lived in vancouver, bc. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/18UwaThgGikSXzinn... You can see based on that the average is around $45~50k CAD (if the salary field is blank assume $50k or less as these are less well known, smaller companies with tighter budgets) rent for studio or 1 bedroom apartment in downtown area where lot of jobs are located i…

median salary of a San Francisco household is 75k.

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/06/06075.html

Re: Why Rent Is So High and Pay So Low

#124
post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I couldn't agree more. I'm young and capital-poor, so this fact is a huge problem for me. I don't see a solution. Vote for politicians not obsessed with propping up the business and real-estate portfolios of wealthy middle-aged people? (assuming you can find such politicians)

Easier said than done. Unfortunately, these issues are so far removed from the public's mind that no politicians even bother talking about it.

It's not far removed from the public's mind. People know they're currently getting shafted. They have just been convinced that anything in the best interest of wealthy middle-aged people must also be in their best interest, because everyone thinks they will one day be wealthy middle-aged people.

39% of Americans think they are or will one day be among the top 1%: http://www.nytimes.com/2003/01/12/opinion/the-triumph-of-hop...

Re: Why Rent Is So High and Pay So Low

#125
The reason is monetary. Private debt increased and has reached it's peak. Previous generations have borrowed their prosperity, and next generations are living in an economy that is already full of debt obligations.

Everyone should see one of the few economists that actually does a proper craft: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqzfOQXCwFg

Re: Why Rent Is So High and Pay So Low

#126
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a gray area. If we allowed a large automaker to go bankrupt, we probably would have lost the supply chain and many supporting industries which would be gone (from the US) forever. Same with banks. As much as we detest bailing out bankers, allowing the US to economy to be cut off from credit would create lasting collateral damage.

The counter example is Iceland who told the banks to get lost and is the only European country who's economy is now ahead of where it was in 2008. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/three-charts...

Iceland is orders of magnitude smaller than the US, and is generally not regarded as a large financial center.

Re: Why Rent Is So High and Pay So Low

#127
post #120

What is the ideal ratio of rent/net income? Personally, I don't want to spend more than 20% of my net income on rent + utilities. That way, I can save 50% and use the remaining 30% for food and entertainment. I am currently at 16% in Seattle and I leave in a very good apartment, but I got lucky.

I rented a 3 room apartment. Sublet out 2.5 rooms. (I'm sharing one room.) Reduced my rental expense to 0%. Paying bills only. Only 15 minutes train to the second most expensive city by property prices relative to income in the world. (Sydney)

Unfortunately you have to find a landlord that lets you rent a 3-bedroom AND sublet parts of it, which where I live is completely unheard of (unless you're high net worth and pay premium rent, but then why have flatmates ?). Plus, you'd pay income taxes on the subletting rents and that builds up really quickly.

Re: Why Rent Is So High and Pay So Low

#128
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Fed never touched the pedal. See also "Interest on reserves". Land rents ( which are not the same as "rack rent", what you pay the landlord, but can be related by land prices going up speculatively ) drive out wage rises. Scott Sumner says we should have Nominal GDP Targeting; if Real GDP is < say, 4%, the rest is made up with inflation.

> Land rents drive (...) out wage rises. Should we address rent seeking with land taxes and other Georgist policies?

Probably. It would mean a painful period of adjustment. And the rentiers will fight with everything they have.

Re: Why Rent Is So High and Pay So Low

#129
I've been thinking about this a lot lately. I live in NYC so I see some of what's happening in the property market here. I've also lived in London, Zurich and Australia.

The problem, ultimately, I think is trade agreements.

I came across this comic [1] recently that resonated with me. Trade agreements aren't about trade anymore. Tariffs and protection are at all time lows. Really they're about the free movement of capital.

The English-speaking world and much of the rest of the developed world has embraced the idea that real estate is a speculative investment. This includes allowing foreign capital to flow in and buy up property.

A lot of Manhattan condos are bought by the wealthy, many of them foreign, who don't live here at all (ie it's just a means of parking money) or they visit a few times a year.

The NYT has done a piece on this [2]. Luckily, much of Manhattan is still co-ops. For those of you unfamiliar with the history of this, NYC imposed rent control on property owners in the post-war era (up until 1973). Coops were a reform to allow building owners to divest themselves of apartments being rented below cost after the massive inflation of the 1970s.

Rent control tenants were offered their apartment at a discounted rate. They became owners and the owners divested themselves of the loss-making asset. Win-win.

Co-op residents technically own shares in a corporation. That corporation owns the building. Your shares give you the right to inhabit a certain apartment. You must however abide by the co-op rules. Some are lenient, some very strict. Co-ops can dictate a lot of things like:

- Whether or not you can use the apartment as a pied-a-terre;

- Whether or not and how much you can sublet your apartment (some note at all, some very lenient, lots in between);

- How much financing is allowed. Many require a 20-25% downpayments and significant post-close liquidity. The more aristocratic buildings don't allow financing at all.

And so on.

The net effect though is that most co-ops tend to be fully or near-fully occupied, at least until you get to the very high end. This is actually good for the building and (IMHO) the city.

Without this NYC would be doomed to become a desert of unoccupied condos.

There are problems. Property tax is grossly unfair as the system is decided by the state government in Albany and they have heavily skewed it in favour of SFHs (single family homes). Plus for incumbent owners there are Prop 13 like caps on rate increases.

Also within apartment buildings there are problems. A $100m condo pays $18k/month in property tax. A $3m condo pays $3k. How does that make sense? It probably dates back to Bloomberg's idea that attracting billionaires who never live here is somehow good for the city.

At the same time as all this you need property investment to some degree as that's what provides the rental market. So you can't eliminate it entirely. But this is what I think you need:

1. A higher bracket of capital gains tax paid by non-residents of wherever the property is. This should include any residential property held through corporations or trusts.

Now you have to be careful with this because there's also the flipper market. These are people who buy distressed properties, fix them up and sell them. I actually believe these people are providing a useful service in rehabing neighbourhoods.

2. Property taxes that are in line with market values that don't discriminate on property type;

3. Higher property taxes for non-residents (and trusts and corporations);

4. No property transfer taxes like NYC's "mansion" tax.

Lastly, I don't have a huge amount of sympathy for the argument that people in entry-level jobs should be able to, say, afford to live in Manhattan. Why? Why is living anywhere a right? You hear the same thing about San Francisco.

At least in NYC there are options if you're on a lower income (Queens, NJ, NY, many of which have good transport options). Whatever problems there are in NYC the Bay Area is a mess an order of magnitude worse.

Vouncouver is another place that's had property driven up to sky-high levels. In that case it's because of rich Chinese seeking a safe harbour for their money and/or (ab)using the invest-to-immigrate program in Canada (how is buying an expensive house investing in Canada exactly?).

Freedom of capital is a problem. It allows companies to avoid paying taxes with transfer pricing. It allows voters to vote themselves huge benefits from the government treasury and then abandon the city, state or country when that debt collapses on itself.

[1]: http://economixcomix.com/home/tpp/

[2]: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/11/realestate/new-york-citys-...

Re: Why Rent Is So High and Pay So Low

#130
post #116
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course, that's only nominal house prices that shouldn't fall. If inflation-adjusted real house prices fall, not really a problem. Perhaps a little more inflation than we currently have would be a good idea (4-5%).

When housing accounts for 30-50% of your income, house prices are inflation.

Amen... in my country (Uruguay) they have a carefully managed inflation index... but it is meaninglesss.. housing went up 70%, what do I care if lottery tickets or vegetables go up or down 1%
Post reply on HN