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Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

bbc.com

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Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#111

Post by selimthegrim »

tiatia wrote: post #98
lizarazucharlie wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point is without educated immigrants who pays the pension of old people, Germany would face a hard time. "I also don't harass the local population". I am pretty sure they disagree, pushing people without saying "Entschuldigung" IS a harassment. How did the people on your city, on Asian, react to your more than 10 seconds out of blue stare? Didn't they think is is a harassment too?

I don't disagree that Germany needs skilled immigrants. But there is actually currently much less demand than some lobbyist claim and salaries are so low that mostly this is only attractive to 2nd class 3rd world immigrants. The very good ones go to the US, UK,CA or Australia immediately. Easier, much more pay. Germany had immigrant waves from countries like Iran or Afghanistan some decades ago. But this were very hi…

Uh, didn't feminists change the rape legislation too (cf. Assange) so that Sweden has one of the highest reporting rates in the world. I'm not ruling out what you say but you have to disentangle these things.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#112

Post by tiatia »

selimthegrim wrote: post #111
tiatia wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree that Germany needs skilled immigrants. But there is actually currently much less demand than some lobbyist claim and salaries are so low that mostly this is only attractive to 2nd class 3rd world immigrants. The very good ones go to the US, UK,CA or Australia immediately. Easier, much more pay. Germany had immigrant waves from countries like Iran or Afghanistan some decades ago. But this were very hi…

Uh, didn't feminists change the rape legislation too (cf. Assange) so that Sweden has one of the highest reporting rates in the world. I'm not ruling out what you say but you have to disentangle these things.

This may play a minor role.

One of the first google links:

http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/5195/sweden-rape

(I don't know this "Institute", so take the source with a grain of salt. But all the links will more or less report similar conclusions.)

Another link: http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/03/muslim_sacra...

Don't forget that most of these people come from very tribal regions and backgrounds. In many places where they come from, a rape of, let's say a Christian women, that walks openly dressed and unaccompanied on the street would be considered not a big thing.

Many ideas the west has sound really absurd to these people.

Why does Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Dubai, Emirates and so on not take these "refugees"? Based on their language, food requirements and religion this should be a much better fit. Yet, it would sound absurd to this countries letting them in and "feeding them for free'. Why? Because they are tribal systems as well.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#113

Post by mikekchar »

alkonaut wrote: post #79
jotm wrote: post #73

Can I just say that it is not a problem for Germany because they figured out they need to let immigrants in, unlike Japan. Germany has a very high number of immigrants, including (actually, mostly!) young adults who are eager to work. By all means, the country is more than safe in this regard, in stark contrast to Japan, which is trying to turn to robots for future workers (which is fine for the rest of the world, im…

Yes, Japan has managed to brew the deadly mix of aging population, extremely traditional values leading to very low fertility, and an extremely low acceptance of immigration. it feels almost dystopian to think about the demographics in a few decades: elderly and robots will far outnumber the rest.

I read posts like yours and it really saddens me. It's hard for me to respond without sounding insulting or condescending, but you are wrong on pretty much every word you write. Unfortunately, you are probably the victim of biased writing about Japan.

For just one example, go here: http://www.us.emb-japan.go.jp/english/html/travel_and_visa/t...

Scroll down to the section about getting a working visa. Have a look at what is required to get such a visa and compare it to your own country. (Hint: you need a university degree and a job offer -- after that you're pretty much golden). In contrast I can't even take my Japanese wife home to Canada without paying $1500 and waiting 12-18 months to get health insurance and working privileges. I've lived in Canada, the US, the UK and Japan and Japan is by far the country with the laxest immigration policy.

If you were to research the topic, you would discover that the low fertility rate is mostly due to the fact that the average age of marriage is 29.7. The average age of a first child is 30.3. Women in Japan live with their parents until they get married for the most part. Usually they work so they are both rich and free and not particularly interested in getting married (or having children).

Have a look at this graph of the average age of women having their first child in the UK: http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/10/20/article-2051374-0E... (source is the Daily Mail... sorry, but I'm sure you can find a similar graph from a reputable source if your are bothered to look harder than me).

The west is catching on to a good thing and following Japan's lead. Just like Japan, as women take less traditional roles in society the fertility rates drop. It is practically the opposite of "extremely traditional values leading to very low fertility".

I'm sure you've read plenty of pieces in the BBC or the Japan Times talking about how backward it is here. I'm sure you've heard many people talk about xenophobia in Japan because the immigrant population is very small. But in reality, like all stereotypes it is a small seed of truth covered up by a mountain of BS.

It is true that the population is aging here. What young people there are seem to be flooding to big cities too, leaving a pretty big gap in the agricultural industry. There are definitely going to be problems. I often wonder if Japan will keep its position in the G8 (currently 3rd largest economy by GDP). I'm not sure that it matters all that much, though.

Japan will be fine even if it is not a world economic super power. Life here is extremely good -- even for an immigrant like me. I don't think it will change that much.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#115

Post by sudeepj »

thanksgiving wrote: post #101
sudeepj wrote: post #44

I am from India, which is second most populated country in the world. A generation ago, it was common for a couple having 3 to 4 kids. But now, even here most couples (in urban areas atleast) plan for atmost 1 kid. The sheer pace with which life moves has increased compared to one generation back. Couples (especially when both are working) simply do not have money, energy & time. India is not a developed country and…

According to Google, total fertility rate is at 2.50 as of 2012. This is good news. Apparently,according to The Hindu at least two populous states - UP and Bihar - have tfr above 3. Is this a matter of concern in terms of politics and public policy?

It is definitely a concern. Based on my experiences of meeting people from those states, things have start to change. But its slow.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#116

Post by minot »

alkonaut wrote: post #81
adevine wrote: post #40

I'm not so sure I understand the point of view that labor shortages will be such a bad thing for the economy. If you are a worker, "high labor costs" is a very GOOD thing. For decades we've seen the value of labor fall behind the value of capital, and a more constrained labor supply might help change this.

As long as it isn't global it will just mean that German industry will have to move production elsewhere and/or it will be cost effective to employ ever more expensive robots to do the work.

> it will be cost effective to employ ever more expensive robots to do the work

That sounds like a wonderful thing. It means that the work gets done and we free up the workforce for other things. :3

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#117

Post by anouk_anca »

lorenzhs wrote: post #100
ajmurmann wrote: post #20

As a German who lives in the US since 8 years I am not surprised by this at all. By the time you finish university in Germany you are about 25 years old. They introduced the Bachelor/Master system, but at least when I studied, getting a Bachelor was more of a way to drop out gracefully. In addition there was a culture that expected you to stay at home until your child is at least 1 year old. Therefore there was very…

On the aspect of religion, this varies strongly by region. In the "neue Bundesländer" (former GDR), people are generally a lot less religious due to the GDR actively discouraging religion. Meanwhile, Bavaria is very catholic (and quite conservative). It would be interesting to see if/how religion and birth rate correlate in Germany.

There is also a big economic disparity between the former GDR and Bavaria, so I'm not sure how valid a comparison just based on religion could be.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#118

Post by tokenadult »

alkonaut wrote: post #77
lern_too_spel wrote: post #4

Birth rate is rarely the correct metric because it is affected by longevity. The metric most people are interested in is fertility rate, where Germany still has a long way to go to pass Singapore. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/...

This. Birth rate has a lot of uncontrollable factors like demographics. A slump in people in ages 20-40 will inevitably leas to falling birth rate at the same fertility. And that will repeat in 20-40 years. The factor to focus on is the fertility and the fraction of working adults. Germany has a very traditional view of the labour market and women often have to stop working for years when having children. This means…

The only proven solution is subsidized childcare, longer parental leave, individual taxation.

This is an interesting comment to me, because I'm trying to think of example country pairs in which a country with subsidized childcare, longer parental leave, and individual taxation has a higher fertility rate than an otherwise similar country that lacks those things. The United States continues to have a higher fertility rate than many countries in Europe that have more subsidized childcare and longer mandated parental leave than the United States, for example, so I'm not sure that these public policy factors outdo the effect of other cultural and economic factors in either raising or lowering the country-wide fertility rate.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#119

Post by icebraining »

return0 wrote: post #50
k__ wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you assume a developed country, you have an attractive place to live for many people from other badly developed countries. So you can simply import them.

typically their qualifications are low, though

They're certainly higher than German-born newborns. If you can afford to educate a child from birth, you can certainly afford to train adults.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#120

Post by bluedevil2k »

dheera wrote: post #80
lern_too_spel wrote: post #4

Birth rate is rarely the correct metric because it is affected by longevity. The metric most people are interested in is fertility rate, where Germany still has a long way to go to pass Singapore. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/...

Not to mention that in these highly-developed countries with solid education systems and modern career opportunities, the value-creating power of an individual is several times higher than that of an average individual in a developing country. The fertility rate among founders in Silicon Valley is probably even lower, but that group of people is creating an immense amount of value for society in return for not creati…

I'm not sure creating yet another social media photo sharing disappearing anonymous comment app is more valuable, to society or the individual, than children.
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