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Pavel Durov quits as VKontakte CEO

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Re: Pavel Durov quits as VKontakte CEO

#111
post #78
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Kosovo there was active, widespread genocide going on. Absolutely nothing of such kind was happening in Crimea. Additionally the Kosovo constitution offered room for secession and it's secession was consequently recognized by the vast majority of the international community. The votes on the UN council as to the legality of Russia's actions [1] say enough, but Huffinton Post wrote a fairly comprehensive article [2…

Lies, lies, lies... In Kosovo there wasn't widespread genocide, especially not before NATO started dropping bombs - by far biggest atrocities (not genocide) started after March 24, 1999. Also you conveniently forgot those guys http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo_Liberation_Army#Status_a... - local Russians in Crimea didn't pull anything remotely similar and I guess that they could if they wanted to provoke conflict.…

OK. I stand corrected on the genocide. Still; the NATO intervention was to stop a war between insurgents (supported by the populace) and a government that started waging war against the insurgents.

In that case the equivalent would have been for Russia to militarily support the situation in Kiev, and it bears no similarity whatsoever to invading and annexing the, at that point, completely peaceful Crimea.

Re: Pavel Durov quits as VKontakte CEO

#112
post #73
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It more seems that the seriousness of the conflict depends on whether you see this as an isolated incident (which just happens to be the worst violation of territorial integrity in Europe since WWII) or as yet another indicator that the exact same social dynamics that led us to WWII in the first place are intensifying significantly. I'm curious as to what your take on this is then though ...

Oh boy. I think you're somewhat over-exaggerating the situation. Yes, Russia has not been the most subtle in taking over Crimea, but I can say without a doubt that any of the major superpowers would do the same if a country nearby were to experience a coup d'etat. Especially if that country was strategically important. While not technically legal, Crimea really is mostly comprised of Russians and has had a special le…

«While not technically legal, Crimea really is mostly comprised of Russians and has had a special legal status for ages. A 97% vote does not surprise me.»

What surprises me is that a resulting figure from a so-called "referendum" (taken under foreign armed forces occupation) is taken into account and considered at all! This «not technically legal» does not even begin to describe the situation.

Re: Pavel Durov quits as VKontakte CEO

#113
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lies, lies, lies... In Kosovo there wasn't widespread genocide, especially not before NATO started dropping bombs - by far biggest atrocities (not genocide) started after March 24, 1999. Also you conveniently forgot those guys http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo_Liberation_Army#Status_a... - local Russians in Crimea didn't pull anything remotely similar and I guess that they could if they wanted to provoke conflict.…

OK. I stand corrected on the genocide. Still; the NATO intervention was to stop a war between insurgents (supported by the populace) and a government that started waging war against the insurgents. In that case the equivalent would have been for Russia to militarily support the situation in Kiev, and it bears no similarity whatsoever to invading and annexing the, at that point, completely peaceful Crimea.

First, I'm sorry for a hash tone of my first message.

Second, I could argue that Russians just skipped the insurgency part. It would be trivially easy for them to create/support insurgency at Crimea and leave Ukrainian forces with no good choice: either they retreat immediately or they retreat under Russian assault (which will be justified as a war/genocide/whatever prevention).

On Serbia/Kosovo: discrepancy between military might between Serbia and Albanians from Kosovo was so great that any insurgency was practically suicide. But if you know that you will be backed by NATO insurgency suddenly looks like a good idea. My point being that NATO action wasn't just consequence of war but part of a cause.

Might makes right - works everywhere.

Re: Pavel Durov quits as VKontakte CEO

#114
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK. I stand corrected on the genocide. Still; the NATO intervention was to stop a war between insurgents (supported by the populace) and a government that started waging war against the insurgents. In that case the equivalent would have been for Russia to militarily support the situation in Kiev, and it bears no similarity whatsoever to invading and annexing the, at that point, completely peaceful Crimea.

First, I'm sorry for a hash tone of my first message. Second, I could argue that Russians just skipped the insurgency part. It would be trivially easy for them to create/support insurgency at Crimea and leave Ukrainian forces with no good choice: either they retreat immediately or they retreat under Russian assault (which will be justified as a war/genocide/whatever prevention). On Serbia/Kosovo: discrepancy between…

Well; the Maidan insurgency was suicide for quite a few of the protesters. History is littered with insurgencies that won through losing.

But as for Crimea vs. Kosovo; without international intervention the Kosovo situation would still have been explosive. Crimea was already mostly independent and had a referendum for more independence coming up already and showed no signs of destabilizing.

Also; I'm not aware of dramatically self-serving incentives for NATO's intervention in Kosovo like there clearly are in Crimea (gas reserves, lease for black-sea naval base, destabilizing post-Maidan Ukraine, nationalization of Ukrainian assets, prestige through this 'little war' and restoring former USSR glory.)

My recollection from Kosovo was that NATO intervention was done begrudgingly in an honest attempt to stabilize an explosive situation.

Once again; I'm honestly curious about your perspective on this...

Re: Pavel Durov quits as VKontakte CEO

#115
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh boy. I think you're somewhat over-exaggerating the situation. Yes, Russia has not been the most subtle in taking over Crimea, but I can say without a doubt that any of the major superpowers would do the same if a country nearby were to experience a coup d'etat. Especially if that country was strategically important. While not technically legal, Crimea really is mostly comprised of Russians and has had a special le…

OK. It's pretty clear that you've been heavily exposed to a single perspective of the situation. There is no way in hell 97% of the population voted in favor with 80+% turnout; especially given that 30+% of the population is Tatar or Ukrainian. Based on leaked reports to the Kremlin the real turnout is estimated at a bit over 30%. Regardless; the referendum was literally held at gunpoint after all Ukrainian news had…

I don't have statistics but my colleague went to watch the referendum and 80% turnout is what he witnessed. Of course it was just one area of Simferopol.

http://breqwas.livejournal.com/301901.html in russian

Re: Pavel Durov quits as VKontakte CEO

#116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK. It's pretty clear that you've been heavily exposed to a single perspective of the situation. There is no way in hell 97% of the population voted in favor with 80+% turnout; especially given that 30+% of the population is Tatar or Ukrainian. Based on leaked reports to the Kremlin the real turnout is estimated at a bit over 30%. Regardless; the referendum was literally held at gunpoint after all Ukrainian news had…

I don't have statistics but my colleague went to watch the referendum and 80% turnout is what he witnessed. Of course it was just one area of Simferopol. http://breqwas.livejournal.com/301901.html in russian

My Russian is not that good, but doesn't this also mention some irregularities which cast some doubt on that number?

Regardless, if a single polling station in a fairly pro-Russian area, kept on its toes by (amateur) observers, gets a 75% turnout that makes an 80% turnout overall very unlikely given the boycott of the referendum by Crimean tatars.

What's your take on the 123% turnout in Sebastopol btw?

P.S. You are talking about turnout right? Because the votes being 80+% in favor is perfectly possible.

Re: Pavel Durov quits as VKontakte CEO

#117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't have statistics but my colleague went to watch the referendum and 80% turnout is what he witnessed. Of course it was just one area of Simferopol. http://breqwas.livejournal.com/301901.html in russian

My Russian is not that good, but doesn't this also mention some irregularities which cast some doubt on that number? Regardless, if a single polling station in a fairly pro-Russian area, kept on its toes by (amateur) observers, gets a 75% turnout that makes an 80% turnout overall very unlikely given the boycott of the referendum by Crimean tatars. What's your take on the 123% turnout in Sebastopol btw? P.S. You are t…

You can use google translate.

Yes there were irregularities, the process was either rough or rigged. However he was seeing a voluntary 75% turnout with exit pool showing more than 75% in favour.

Re: Pavel Durov quits as VKontakte CEO

#118
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh boy. I think you're somewhat over-exaggerating the situation. Yes, Russia has not been the most subtle in taking over Crimea, but I can say without a doubt that any of the major superpowers would do the same if a country nearby were to experience a coup d'etat. Especially if that country was strategically important. While not technically legal, Crimea really is mostly comprised of Russians and has had a special le…

OK. It's pretty clear that you've been heavily exposed to a single perspective of the situation. There is no way in hell 97% of the population voted in favor with 80+% turnout; especially given that 30+% of the population is Tatar or Ukrainian. Based on leaked reports to the Kremlin the real turnout is estimated at a bit over 30%. Regardless; the referendum was literally held at gunpoint after all Ukrainian news had…

I'm sorry, but YOU are the one who is heavily exposed to a single perspective. Keep watching your CNN.

I myself am from eastern europe and have first hand witnessed russian attitude towards post soviet satellite countries. Don't teach me what I know.

Literally almost everything you say is wrong. Referendum was not held at gunpoint. I've seen western sources use that phrase, so I know where you got it from.

It is a valid referendum because Crimea has a weird legal status, look up Autonomous republic of Crimea.

No, the protest most certainly was not organized by real everyday people. Strategically taking over buildings is not what real everyday people do.

I do want to argue that the situation with snipers was not one sided. Some sources say they shot at both, rioters* and the police.

Notice how I use the term rioters - that was not a protest.

P.S. I have no reason to be biased since I don't generally like Russians, especially the ones that stayed in satellite countries after the fall of the Soviet union. They have a habit of not learning the language and not respecting the host country.

P.S.S Learn fucking Russian, so that you can get both sides of the picture, not just biased rehashes of reuters/cnn/msnbc.

Re: Pavel Durov quits as VKontakte CEO

#119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK. It's pretty clear that you've been heavily exposed to a single perspective of the situation. There is no way in hell 97% of the population voted in favor with 80+% turnout; especially given that 30+% of the population is Tatar or Ukrainian. Based on leaked reports to the Kremlin the real turnout is estimated at a bit over 30%. Regardless; the referendum was literally held at gunpoint after all Ukrainian news had…

I'm sorry, but YOU are the one who is heavily exposed to a single perspective. Keep watching your CNN. I myself am from eastern europe and have first hand witnessed russian attitude towards post soviet satellite countries. Don't teach me what I know. Literally almost everything you say is wrong. Referendum was not held at gunpoint. I've seen western sources use that phrase, so I know where you got it from. It is a va…

I've been following all international reporters on the ground from day one (Twitter journalism is truly a game-changer) and corroborating it by getting personal perspectives from people related to Maidan and within Crimea. My partner is Ukrainian from Russian parents and we regularly compare Russian and Western reporting, statements and propaganda.

All in all I'm quite sure I've got a pretty solid grip on the situation incorporating information from all perspectives.

As for a referendum at gunpoint; it's not really debatable as it refers to armed Russian forces having taken over Crimea during the referendum.

As for it's validity; it's not about the constitutional framework, it's about the occupation, selective media blackout, voting irregularities, lack of independent international observers etc. etc. The comparison with the internationally recognized Scottisch referendum [1] explains it well.

As for taking over buildings; I don't find it at all odd that a movement consisting mostly of the general population and also militant far-right extremists (disproportionately present due to obvious selection bias) operates strategically in a way that maximised disruption. Self-organisation is a much more likely explanation than nefarious foreign strategic advice.

As for the snipers; are you seriously arguing that the US shot these protesters as a false flag operation?

It sounds to me like, at the core, you just can't comprehend a bona-fide populist uprising lying the root of Euromaidan.

Have you considered that that might be because at some level it invalidates the learned helplessness many in post-Soviet states were raised with?

[1] https://secure.flickr.com/photos/foreignoffice/13306114335/

Re: Pavel Durov quits as VKontakte CEO

#120
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First, I'm sorry for a hash tone of my first message. Second, I could argue that Russians just skipped the insurgency part. It would be trivially easy for them to create/support insurgency at Crimea and leave Ukrainian forces with no good choice: either they retreat immediately or they retreat under Russian assault (which will be justified as a war/genocide/whatever prevention). On Serbia/Kosovo: discrepancy between…

Well; the Maidan insurgency was suicide for quite a few of the protesters. History is littered with insurgencies that won through losing. But as for Crimea vs. Kosovo; without international intervention the Kosovo situation would still have been explosive. Crimea was already mostly independent and had a referendum for more independence coming up already and showed no signs of destabilizing. Also; I'm not aware of dra…

Problems in Kosovo were not something new, certainly they didn't occur because of Milosevic. His government, same as any Serbian or Yugoslav government in last 100 years, wasn't capable of solving those problems. Different things were tried, from brute force, to deep integration and back again to the brute force.

Communist government immediately after WWII even had plans for a wide Balkan federation with Albania as a part of Yugoslavia and maybe even Bulgaria, so they made some concession early on. As selimthegrim said we even had "nationalities" - in other countries that would be national minorities as Albania was their ethnic state, but minority term was deemed offensive so we invented another word. And after 1974 constitution in some way they had more rights than Serbs as while Kosovo was part of the Serbia it was also firsthand part of the federal state. So when some law on Serbia level had to be adopted they had a word in it, but when some other law had to be adopted just on the Kosovo level Serbia had no say in it. Even then there were strong separatist tendencies. Milosevic's rise to power was fueled by promises of curbing Kosovo's status. Of course Albanians were not happy, so to speak.

I could go on and on about this but bottom line is that they never wanted to be part of Serbia or Yugoslavia (and I don't blame them, neither would I in their place). So given that they represented almost 90% of population of Kosovo it's probably right for them to be independent.

The problem I have with this is that same rights do not universally apply to other people. As West politicians love to say Kosovo was "special case". Basically, they reserve right to arbitrary decide when will of the people should be respected and when not. They certainly can treat Serbia like that, but it looks like Russia reserved same rights as the West, and it has means to enforce them. Last week British FM said that "there can be no more re-drawing of borders in the Balkans" meaning that Bosnian Serbs cannot secede from Bosnia no matter what referendum results will be (of course there's no chance in hell to even hold a referendum as West will not allow that). But Scottish independence referendum will take place, so I'm confused again - are the Scots or the Serbs "special case".

As for NATO's enthusiasm for intervention in Kosovo please check Kissinger's take on Rambouillet Agreement [1] - and they didn't stabilize situation - they took a side in the war, won a war and final result is this [2] - Serbs are mostly expelled from Kosovo (civilians, not just military) or stuffed in small enclaves. And if you take a close look on that final result - just replace Serbs with Albanians in the previous sentence and you get instant switch from "stabilization" to war crimes. Go figure ;)

Also, compare that situation with Dayton Agreement - USA had enough leverage on all three sides and successfully forced them to sign agreement that nobody liked. On the other hand, during Kosovo crisis I can't recollect any situation where they put pressure on Albanian side and not that there were no arguments for it.

And for self-serving incentives for NATO's intervention - I have no idea. Maybe they concluded that Serbs had enough time to solve problems themselves, maybe they just didn't want to have Russian oriented spot in the middle of the new NATO countries, maybe NATO just searched for reason to keep existing (last instance of this is Crimea situation), maybe Clinton BJ was the reason. They know intervention wouldn't cost them much (they didn't expected that it would last more than a few days), so what the hell - compare that to Crimea situation where there's no consensus even on economic sanctions.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rambouillet_Agreement [2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo_war#Aftermath

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