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The end of the Facebook era

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Re: The end of the Facebook era

#111

Post by nostrademons »

michaelochurch wrote: post #67

Snapchat is a frivolous, silly app mainly used for sexting. I agree that there is something in combing asynchrony and ephemerality, but come on. Nothing run by the likes of Evan Spiegel is going to threaten Facebook. He's not in the same class as Mark Zuckerberg or Bill Gates. He's not even in the same class as me. He's a rich kid and a lottery winner and should have sold at $3 billion and let someone else run it. No…

The quality of a social interaction is almost entirely due to the people involved, not the medium that it happens over. If you want to provide a Quality Social experience, you do that by finding an original user group that knows how to socialize. Facebook did exactly that - they started with the most popular social club, in the most elite university, in the age group that does the most socializing. It worked out pretty well for them.

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#112

Post by joaorj »

freyr wrote: post #74
crazygringo wrote: post #60

> Teens likely see Facebook the same way the Facebook generation sees LinkedIn – like a utilitarian place to manage connections. I've heard it a billion times that teens aren't using Facebook. But who cares ? I just don't see any evidence that this heralds the end of Facebook. It's not necessarily any more meaningful than "people ages 65-70 don't use Facebook". It's a small percentage of the population. And there's n…

> And there's no indication that teens are using something else that will replace Facebook when they're in their 20's and 30's -- you can't organize parties on Instagram or Snapchat. Today's teens do not use Facebook as much as teens did in the past. That's a fact. Will they use it more once they're in their 30s? That's pure speculation on your part, which is completely unsubstantiated, and we'll have to wait one or…

i shouldn't be comenting just to say so little, but this was brilliant:

"> Every indication is that teens get onto Facebook once they stop being teens, correct me if I'm wrong.

You're just making up a random fact to support your case, and leaving the burden on the reader to substantiate your claims, correct me if I'm wrong."

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#113

Post by enraged_camel »

crazygringo wrote: post #60

> Teens likely see Facebook the same way the Facebook generation sees LinkedIn – like a utilitarian place to manage connections. I've heard it a billion times that teens aren't using Facebook. But who cares ? I just don't see any evidence that this heralds the end of Facebook. It's not necessarily any more meaningful than "people ages 65-70 don't use Facebook". It's a small percentage of the population. And there's n…

>>It's not necessarily any more meaningful than "people ages 65-70 don't use Facebook". It's a small percentage of the population.

Except for the fact that teens are expected to live (and spend money) for many decades, whereas 65-70 year olds are nearing the ends of their lives. So yes, a 16% decline in teen users is of huge importance.

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#114

Post by chm »

untog wrote: post #5
chm wrote: post #2

Facebook is a fad. There is no Facebook "era".

If it's a fad then it has a time period where it is popular, which is entirely reasonable to call an "era".

I had similar comments from other people, so I will reply here:

In my native tongue, 10 years wouldn't be called an "era", hence the disagreement.

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#115

Post by sirkneeland »

stevenj wrote: post #93

Friendly wager offer: I'll bet anyone $100 that Facebook is still the largest social network based on monthly active users in 5 years. (Facebook itself, not any companies it acquires.) We can either use public company stats, or a couple of respected publications' reported usage stats, or a combination of both to decide the winner.

Just as Microsoft Windows is still the largest desktop OS, but nobody seems to care. It is entirely possible to have continued dominance of industry (X) only to find that the value of dominating industry (X) isn't what it used to be...

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#116

Post by sirkneeland »

scelerat wrote: post #71
VLM wrote: post #53

"What was cool in the 70s wasn’t cool in the 80s." Its very important he phrased it that way, because bell bottoms had another day in the sun. Happily young women wearing skin tight spandex/yoga pants from the 90s had another day in the 10s. Its difficult to find a womens fashion fad that doesn't repeat every 20-ish years. The endless rotating wheel of fashion and fads doesn't rotate at a speed of 1 rotation per deca…

I'm unaware of communications and technological trends falling into cycles like sartorial fashion. You can use a 20-, 30-, or 50-year-old scarf or jacket you find in a thrift store, but not a phone or a computer. And very few people would want to.

On the other hand... http://www.dailydot.com/opinion/mac-plus-introduce-modern-we...

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#117

Post by zem »

selmnoo wrote: post #34
melling wrote: post #20

Here are some titles for the next story. "The end of the Apple era" "The end of the Microsoft era" "The end of the Netflix era" "The end of the Yahoo era" Seriously, why do people waste time writing these types of stories? My guess is that it's because it's so much easier than actually trying to build something of value. The real problem is there is no penalty for being wrong. Everyone simply forgets. Write a thousan…

Why. Why must you do this. Why must you dismiss articles on hackneyed grounds and kill the chance for an interesting discussion about the nature and direction of social technologies. I thought this article was very interesting, it brought to light several factual points, and several not-heard-before insights -- e.g., I thought this in particular was very true and interesting: This is why social networks, like Google+…

i think another reason both facebook and g+ are in decline is that they're insisting on the whole "our way or the highway" approach - g+'s real names crap, and facebook's relentless publicisation of every move you make, are unpopular with tons of people, and even if those people reluctantly stay on because that's where all their friends are (in facebook's case, at least - g+ threw away any chance at stickiness by being high-handed before people were hooked), their engagement with the platform is diminished.

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#118

Post by Gustomaximus »

Theodores wrote: post #59
chaz wrote: post #9

An alternate opinion: Facebook is heading toward the Trough of Disillusionment of the Hype Cycle: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle Facebook was so ridiculously hot a few years ago that it couldn't possibly have met all of its expectations for changing how we all communicate, replacing all other messaging mediums, dominating how we shop and buy, the portal for all things entertainment, etc. > Teens likely see F…

Weirdly the Google 'trends' graph correlates if you click on the 'forecast' button: http://www.google.co.uk/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F02y1vz%2C%20... However, a forecast is just a forecast, not happened yet. The 'trend' graph spikes with the IPO which had no relevance for 99% of Facebook users. Take that spike out, ignore the 'forecast' and Facebook is doing the 'myspace curve' and in a similar time frame. Anyway, wher…

I got GB region only from your link. The worldwide view shows ongoing growth: http://bit.ly/1dIbkpF

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#119

Post by quack »

freyr wrote: post #74
crazygringo wrote: post #60

> Teens likely see Facebook the same way the Facebook generation sees LinkedIn – like a utilitarian place to manage connections. I've heard it a billion times that teens aren't using Facebook. But who cares ? I just don't see any evidence that this heralds the end of Facebook. It's not necessarily any more meaningful than "people ages 65-70 don't use Facebook". It's a small percentage of the population. And there's n…

> And there's no indication that teens are using something else that will replace Facebook when they're in their 20's and 30's -- you can't organize parties on Instagram or Snapchat. Today's teens do not use Facebook as much as teens did in the past. That's a fact. Will they use it more once they're in their 30s? That's pure speculation on your part, which is completely unsubstantiated, and we'll have to wait one or…

> You're just making up a random fact to support your case, and leaving the burden on the reader to substantiate your claims, correct me if I'm wrong.

And the only fact supporting your case is a sentence from Facebook's Q3 report. Total active teen usage was stable while younger teens are dropping off. If you want to claim that Facebook was downplaying the extent of the problem then that's a very bold assertion. Hiding critical information such as that for investors is what get's executives in trouble. It's also why they bothered to share a piece of information that sent the share price tumbling 20% after an 18% jump.

The use case of Facebook is not messaging. It never has been. The use case of Facebook is their social graph. It's your online identity. It's being the lowest barrier of entry to use the internet.

Re: The end of the Facebook era

#120

Post by stefan_kendall »

Kequc wrote: post #78
selmnoo wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why. Why must you do this. Why must you dismiss articles on hackneyed grounds and kill the chance for an interesting discussion about the nature and direction of social technologies. I thought this article was very interesting, it brought to light several factual points, and several not-heard-before insights -- e.g., I thought this in particular was very true and interesting: This is why social networks, like Google+…

> social has never been Google's forte has it. It hasn't been anybody's forte except for facebook by that standard. On the contrary g+ is far better than facebook by any measurement you choose to use, it isn't missing anything. A supportive user base mostly absent only in the minds of people vehemently dying for it to be absent. These people who repeat the idea that using google for social networking is the worst thi…

I tried google plus once. It was a barrage of information, so I closed the tab never to return. The software ain't good.
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