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Amazon and the "profitless business model" fallacy

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111–120 of 141 posts

Re: Amazon and the "profitless business model" fallacy

#111
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i'm a big fan of Bezos, honestly, but to say that pricing your products in such a way as to make >$100 billion in cash is a "mistake"... that's just crazy talk.

Meanwhile, the iPhone has slowly but steadily been losing mindshare to its amazing competition.

"Share" is a stupid way to look at rapidly growing markets. Apple is not losing anything with their iPhone business.

Re: Amazon and the "profitless business model" fallacy

#112

Out of all the articles I have read on the issue, this one most accurately sums up the views and opinions of the upper half of the organization. Nobody is scared. Nobody is feeling defensive. Nobody thinks the business as a whole is on the wrong path (although there are definitely a few ventures that some feel are in the wrong). I don't have the most broad corporate employment history, but as far as it extends, I've…

Of course they're not scared, they have a nice stock price and seemingly no need to justify it.

Re: Amazon and the "profitless business model" fallacy

#113

This is a dangerous narrative that links the founder to the company in the same way that Apple is forever linked to Steve Jobs.

Amazon is Jeff Bezos's company and everyone knows it. He maintains detailed oversight of all the lines of business.

Re: Amazon and the "profitless business model" fallacy

#114

Out of all the articles I have read on the issue, this one most accurately sums up the views and opinions of the upper half of the organization. Nobody is scared. Nobody is feeling defensive. Nobody thinks the business as a whole is on the wrong path (although there are definitely a few ventures that some feel are in the wrong). I don't have the most broad corporate employment history, but as far as it extends, I've…

Of course they're not scared, they have a nice stock price and seemingly no need to justify it.

At one point in time, Zynga had a good price. I was scared to accept their stock as compensation at that time, and I'm relieved about not pursuing it now.

With Amazon, I actually daydream about the stock taking a nose dive right before I get my next compensation offer. That way I get more stock. I have never had to worry about the long term future value of the company, so a dip is an arbitrage opportunity, as opposed to a risk (like Zynga).

Re: Amazon and the "profitless business model" fallacy

#115

Amazon only has around 10 more years before 3d printing starts to kill retail. Beware.

Small scale manufacturing can only compete with large scale manufacturing where speed, customization, or luxury are important enough to pay a large premium for.

Re: Amazon and the "profitless business model" fallacy

#116
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i'm a big fan of Bezos, honestly, but to say that pricing your products in such a way as to make >$100 billion in cash is a "mistake"... that's just crazy talk.

In the short term. Bezos point is that by pricing everything this way, proposing to compete with Amazon is crazy talk for most people: Their margins are razor thin, so you need to be able to beat them consistently on cost to have a chance of surviving, and beating them on cost will requires economies of scale that are impossible for a lot of people. Apple on the other hand, is marketing high end products with ridicul…

That's fine, but apple makes more profit every quarter than amazon has ever made I think. They have made several hundred billion dollars over the last few years. Who knows if amazon ever gets to flip the switch. Maybe they do, but even then apple will have a several hundred billion dollar head start.

Perhaps both strategies will end up working, but you can't say apples strategy is a failure. It is clearly not, even if they never sell another phone.

Re: Amazon and the "profitless business model" fallacy

#117
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the short term. Bezos point is that by pricing everything this way, proposing to compete with Amazon is crazy talk for most people: Their margins are razor thin, so you need to be able to beat them consistently on cost to have a chance of surviving, and beating them on cost will requires economies of scale that are impossible for a lot of people. Apple on the other hand, is marketing high end products with ridicul…

That's fine, but apple makes more profit every quarter than amazon has ever made I think. They have made several hundred billion dollars over the last few years. Who knows if amazon ever gets to flip the switch. Maybe they do, but even then apple will have a several hundred billion dollar head start. Perhaps both strategies will end up working, but you can't say apples strategy is a failure. It is clearly not, even i…

Don't forget, if the market crashes and AMZN stock gets a 50% haircut, that big pile of cash AAPL has been shoveling their profits onto on can get mighty scary to everyone very quickly.

Re: Amazon and the "profitless business model" fallacy

#118
post #101

Amazon only has around 10 more years before 3d printing starts to kill retail. Beware.

ebooks were the far far bigger challange for Amazon compared to 3d printing. Printing clothes? Printing Mobiles? Printing Washing machines? Never. Ever.

Never say never

Re: Amazon and the "profitless business model" fallacy

#119
post #22

There are some issues with this explanation. The main issue is that the rules of accounting have a very good provision to take into account investing into the future. It is called capitalization. Thus, if a company spends money to build or acquire a new asset, it is called capital spending and it is not subtracted from the profits. Thus, for example, if a company had a million dollars of profit and decided to spend t…

That's all true, but Amazon is free cash flow positive. So it's not like they're making huge "losses" after deducting capex.

Free cash flow is falling in the last couple of years.

http://i.imgur.com/sJWam5L.png

Re: Amazon and the "profitless business model" fallacy

#120
post #14

Strangly, this was the business model of cable companies for the longest time. They never turned a profit. When they expanded, they could use the increased income stream to go deeper into debt. The profits and extra capital went into more expansion. Eventually, they ran out of room to expand, and where are they now? Someday, Amazon will need to face the brutal reality of profit.

Interesting that the other replies to your question are so assured of the dominance of the cable companies. In other words, the perfect industry to disrupt. Before Apple came along, Nokia, RIM and Windows Mobile were poised to rule the mobile world, and could not imagine being relegated to niche marketshare in merely 7 years…

The cable companies are pretty terrifying to mess with. In Seattle, the city wants to provide gigabit fiber to residents, with a pilot project in many neighborhoods. Unfortunately, the champion of that effort, Mayor McGinn, is probably not going to win reelection and Comcast has already bought his challenger.
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