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Stop Being Wrong About China Buying Our Bonds

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Re: Stop Being Wrong About China Buying Our Bonds

#111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indirect exchange was not invented with paper pushing central bankers... Read some economic history, even a bad one and you'd know that already. Aside from French experiments with paper during their revolution, hyperinflation is very much a modern, paper induced phenomenon.

There are many, many problems involved in pinning your value system to a random, naturally occurring substance. See [1] for one argument. Another obvious problem: if we pin our money supply on gold, what happens if we find an asteroid made up entirely of gold - enough to triple the quantity of gold on earth? The person who grabs that gold now owns the whole planet and the entire economy is ruined, even though no actu…

Notice that I haven't mentioned precious metals once, it's only been imputed by others including yourself.

Nevertheless if that's the road you want to go down then the impact on Spain from it's South American conquest is an example from history that somewhat parallels your asteroid of gold.

And yet where Spain's experience serves as a warning we have to look to the modern central bank and revolutionary France in order to gain a true glimpse of what unfolds when a single entity has in it's possession an asteroid of money. Paper money imposed imposed by fiat.

Subjectively in the opinion of many, gold fails in one aspect that is essential to a functional money in that it lacks what would generally considered a wide demand for "useful" applications. The subject value bestowed on it for being yellow and shiny is hardly considered a virtue but perhaps that says more about the human condition than gold? It does however satisfy the remaining requirements of a money very well. It's detractors in favour of paper should perhaps ask the same questions of their beloved wood pulp and see if it doesn't come up short.

The Atlantic article, is in my opinion weak and childish. I don't blame you for opinions, they are inevitable conclusions reached my the majority of bright minds educated by the system. Having been a successful CFA candidate I'm readily familiar with all the received "wisdom".

If there is one reason I would hope might persuade someone to reconsider the validity of the economic consensus if it would be the fact that I can assure you that if you do a little digging you will discover that the architects of the fiat, paper, fractional, central banking system; certainly agreed with me rather than you.

The reason today's system is so fragile is the their progeny have by and large bought into the economic snake oil that poured through education system to justify their monopoly.

Re: Stop Being Wrong About China Buying Our Bonds

#112

War is made less likely as a function of economic interdependence. http://web.mit.edu/~sabrevln/Public/GameTheory/Journal%20of%...

Yes, that was a popular theory around 1900 to 1914, when global trade as a part of global GDP reached a long term maxima that took a very long time to break (if it has been broken?).

Then came a set of World Wars.

Re: Stop Being Wrong About China Buying Our Bonds

#113

> But that's all it is. It's not an investment. Ridiculous, simply untrue. Currency manipulation explains the conversion from yuan to dollars, but not from dollars to t-bills. Why would China convert dollars to t-bills if they didn't see t-bills as a better investment than dollars?

Because they see it as an investment in their own industry.

Re: Stop Being Wrong About China Buying Our Bonds

#114

Today China in essence suppresses the standard of living of it's productive sector. They do this by not allowing the exporters to keep the dollars they earn. Instead the exporters are forced to trade those dollars in for Chinese currency which is artificially pegged against the dollar. This means the exporters immediately lose value. What the author completely fails to understand is that this is another possible outc…

No, the chinese workers have a lesser standard of living because the suppressed value of the currency takes away from the value they can purchase with their wages.

It will even out in the long run as wage inflation will be impossible to fight while keeping down the value of the currency.

Re: Stop Being Wrong About China Buying Our Bonds

#115
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's strange you say it works because it happens that every case of hyperinflation in history has occurred under a fiat, paper system. So what, we go back to the bartering system? It's difficult to trade my skills as a programmer for food directly. Not sure what the rest of your statement is saying...

I'll give you a hint: it involves a pretty undistinguished metal from any practical standpoint that for some reason right wing nutjobs are totally obsessed with.

Sure. But gold, and diamonds and other pretty shiney things only have as much value as we place on them, the same as paper money.

@21echoes covers everything else I wold add on this.

The US currency used to be backed by gold up until 1934 [1], as did several other countries[2]. But as times have moved on, there are several other minerals which have become more important, I think it would become too difficult to rely on just a single precious metal these days.

[1] http://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/currency_12770.htm [2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_standard

Re: Stop Being Wrong About China Buying Our Bonds

#116
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's strange you say it works because it happens that every case of hyperinflation in history has occurred under a fiat, paper system. So what, we go back to the bartering system? It's difficult to trade my skills as a programmer for food directly. Not sure what the rest of your statement is saying...

I'll give you a hint: it involves a pretty undistinguished metal from any practical standpoint that for some reason right wing nutjobs are totally obsessed with.

Yeah, that metal based economy worked out so well for 16th century Spain.

Re: Stop Being Wrong About China Buying Our Bonds

#117
post #49

> But that's all it is. It's not an investment. Ridiculous, simply untrue. Currency manipulation explains the conversion from yuan to dollars, but not from dollars to t-bills. Why would China convert dollars to t-bills if they didn't see t-bills as a better investment than dollars?

I mostly agree, but they don't really have much of a choice. They have to put the dollars somewhere , and when you're dealing with that many, Treasury bills are really the only game in town.

Why not a commercial bank or an investment fund?

Re: Stop Being Wrong About China Buying Our Bonds

#118
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Plus, poverty stifles political activism. Do you have evidence to back that up? I can think of a number of examples to the contrary offhand: The French Revolution was preceded by a financial crisis and poverty, as was the rise of the Nazism in Germany. There's Mohamed Bouazizi, the poor and repressed fruit vendor who helped launch the Arab Spring in Tunisia. And even the Occupy and Tea Party movements that have eac…

One of the interesting points I heard made in discussion of the Arab Spring is that it's not the poor but more privileged classes that generally spark revolutions. Here's the Wall Street Journal on the subject (I think I originally heard the idea on NPR): While the poor struggle to survive from day to day, disappointed middle-class people are much more likely to engage in political activism to get their way. This dyn…

There is a distinction between class and income. In all these examples, people are still responding to their economic situation.

Re: Stop Being Wrong About China Buying Our Bonds

#119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> Austrian economics has been exposed for its various faults in the academia, a modern decent education will reliably inform one of that. .. And this is why I didn't bother with any arguments. I don't have all day to waste on arguing with misguided people. But here's an idea: an economy consists of people making trades and investments etc. Each trade is affected by each person's current circumstances, ends, means an…

You could model behavior of millions of people statistically - the same way we model anything with millions of data points.

Sure, you can look at history, see patterns there, and apply them to whatever's happening in the world right now.

Or, you could make reasonably accurate predictions on what's going to happen, based on your knowledge of how human's behave.

But what you can't do, is put current data through a bunch of mathematical functions, and have them tell you what people will do.

Re: Stop Being Wrong About China Buying Our Bonds

#120
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's strange you say it works because it happens that every case of hyperinflation in history has occurred under a fiat, paper system. So what, we go back to the bartering system? It's difficult to trade my skills as a programmer for food directly. Not sure what the rest of your statement is saying...

Back to bartering? There have never been a big scale bartering system as they always end up being debt based since that is a lot more convenient for all parts. 6000 Years of Debt is a book that can be recommended for information about that. It is not a very good description of the present, but it captures the past very nicely.

That was my point.
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