111–120 of 185 posts
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Is that a joke? Seriously. I don't see any conservative remaining, and it's been a while.
It had to be a joke. Conservative policies have made things much worse. It’s hard to believe they have a party that gets 60 million people to vote for them.
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Trump, sitting on top of a Republican government, is responsible for 10Trn of the debt, about a quarter. Conservatives gave up on principles long ago and have settled for simply lying about everything, including what's happening and who's responsible for it.
The words are so overloaded. Republican is just generic right wing. I think the "conservative" the parent is talking about is the neoliberalism like what Milton Friedman would propose. He would have wanted half of the government gone, next to no market intervention (he even argued against seatbelts in one lecture). That would actually be the "conservative" someone you stereotypically imagine like Ron Swanson would ad…
That always works out well. Until the bears come [1]
[1] https://newrepublic.com/article/159662/libertarian-walks-int...
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Provide a date and resolution criteria, I'll bet you $10k to a charity of the winner's choice via longbets.org. This is cope imho. Words are cheap. We'll get this about the same time as Full Self Driving ("Supervised"). "3 months maybe, 6 months definitely." [1] Your comment is hopeful sci-fi aspirations, without any guarantees. [1] https://x.com/elonmusk/status/823727035088416768 - January 23rd, 2017 https://en.wiki…
Make it $100k and pay it to me directly. I'm not a fan of Musk, but his driverless cars are already driving around in my city alongside Waymo. His rocketship thing will probably be delivering tanks to the other side of the world within hours if the DoD gets their way. I'm getting more work done every day than in entire months pre-2026, and I've done my share of hard engineering. I think you're the one coping. They ju…
I look outside of a tiny IT bubble and the only change I see is people got a bit better search / chat, which is not seo-fucked much yet, just hallucination-fucked. Apps are more shitty than ever, quality is fading and becoming very rare.
World is changing but you picked weird, narrowly focused examples. Like entire military setup for all armies globally is now incorrect, US military became almost obsolete overnight due to running out of important ammo and rockets. Europe military ramping up. Whole world currently hates what US has become due to government you voted, and slowly but surely veering towards China. I never thought I would say this but right now China is much better strategic partner for Europe than US can be. And compared to everybody else I dont see any significant chaning coming in next decade or two, this is what US had become, its not one person or a family clan issue.
Just as puttin' seems a great Nato asset, trump seems a chinese asset based on long term consequences of their actions.
It becomes clearer to more people that it's impossible to predict the future shape of the global economy due to AI. The more clear it is, the cheaper 30 year bonds become.
Finally some evidence that the system is working. Most countries are borrowing like there's no tomorrow, so obviously rates should go up to compensate the risk of not paying back.
The system was always working, ZIRP was the market screaming that it had more capital than things to do with the capital. Of course, thinking about this too hard quickly leads to the idea of rolling back some of the enormous tax and policy privileges granted to capital, so it was critical for us to not think about it too hard.
France is in a dire situation right now. 10y OAT are at 4.5% and rising with almost 100bps difference with Germany and no budget for 2027 since there is no majority in the parliament. There is also a 6% deficit expected and growth has been revised down to 0.4% although during the first 6 months of 2026 there was actually a decrease of 0.2% of GDP in total so finishing the year in recession is totally possible. Unempl…
And don't expect any debate on economic policy in the next presidential campaign either… It's just going to be “should we tax the billionaires” vs “should we save a few basis points of GDP in pensions”, none of which is remotely close to the order of magnitude that's needed to put the country back on its feet.
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> Maybe we should vote for people who are financially literate, can think long term, and can "conserve" rather than politicians who promise endlessly? Who could you vote for, in any democracy, that would fit this? Also, how many voters would have the wherewithal to identify such a person?
I think democracy is perhaps a fundamentally unstable system. It requires constant corrective force, and a lot of it, from a lot of people. When the members of that democracy start to get a little too comfortable it fails. Humans are designed to operate in smallish clans with benevolent dictators whose right to rule is based on social currency with people they personally know. Anything else is a house of cards on uns…
That was Churchill's view, as he said during a speech in the House of Commons in 1947:
"Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time . . ."
Italian and Greek bonds now have lower yields/rates (i.e., considered lower risk(?)) than US bonds: * https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/
Sort of. You also have to consider exchange rate futures, the value of the currency you will be getting paid in may change dramatically.
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Working is an interesting term (which I agree with btw) because place like Japan with debt at 200%+ of gdp, rates rising are going to annihilate spending in other important areas. Maybe we should vote for people who are financially literate, can think long term, and can "conserve" rather than politicians who promise endlessly?
> Maybe we should vote for people who are financially literate, can think long term, and can "conserve" rather than politicians who promise endlessly? Conservatives: +-------------------------+----------------------------------------+ | President Name | Deficit Increase (+) or Decrease (-) | +-------------------------+----------------------------------------+ | Donald Trump (2nd term) | N/A | | Donald Trump (1st term…
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There is no way to grow the US economy due to structural demographics except immigration levels the US electorate is unwilling to accept. We have long ago exceeded the debt we could accumulate based on the future growth curve inherent to the prime working age cohort. The credit card of young workers and a growing population ("demographic dividend" in demographics parlance) has hit its limit to spend against, broadly…
> There is no way to grow the US economy AI and robotics. Engineering is becoming cheaper. Graphics design is becoming cheaper. Lawyering is becoming cheaper. Entertainment, film, and gaming (not hardware) is becoming cheaper. This will eventually hit manufacturing and logistics and critical inputs. We'll be able to have an entire robotic supply chain domestically save for raw materials. It will hit drug design and m…
But in terms of real products that affect people's lives in positive ways, capitalism has a problem. There are going to be fewer real people in the future, which means a shrinking market for everything, which makes it harder to justify technological improvements and amortize their R&D costs over a large market. Many of the incentives in capitalism assume growth; when that assumption is violated, the game theory collapses to everybody fighting over a share of the shrinking pie before it disappears.