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S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

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Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#111

Post by 3848484894 »

ericmay wrote: post #97
lelanthran wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They aren't finding AI to be have less ROI than before - they are requiring higher ROI than before, because there is less money remaining. What ROI? There was no return, and there currently isn't any return on investment, because those companies did not exit yet! The exit plan is to offload overpriced shares, that they paid billions for, onto the public market. If they don't IPO, those investors get nothing.

> The exit plan is to offload overpriced shares, that they paid billions for, onto the public market. If they don't IPO, those investors get nothing. I keep seeing these unsubstantiated claims. They’re out to get us and just pump and dump on public markets! Yet, before they IPO they have to go around and do what? Who sets the IPO price? Who buys the shares? If the shares tank, the valuation of the company goes down a…

With a couple million dollars, you can buy many many articles on the financial times and barron's. With a couple friends, you can get other friends in pension funds to allocate into you. With other friends, you can get beneficial messaging from all sorts of public and private channels. Banks and funds can pump your offerings for something in return if you went to the right bar mitvah. Of course this only lasts for some time, but if Billy the boomer and the Korean teachers pension fund bought in, you are already half way there.

Information is only relevant in the long term, in the short term the stock market is about FRIENDSHIP.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#112

Post by xnx »

Ancalagon wrote: post #89
cmiles8 wrote: post #31

Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes. For example, Amazon just had a challenging bond offering where the market is clearly starting to seriously question the ROI on all this money being pumped into AI buildout. That does not bode well at all for AI-only companies without broader cash flow from other businesses. And when the cash dries up this whole thing comes crashing down like…

And none of the major model makers (not counting SpaceX) have IPO'd yet

Google (and to a much lesser degree, Facebook)

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#113

Post by chrismustcode »

lelanthran wrote: post #63
dj_axl wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can rent out their AI infra to The Hyperscalers.

> They can rent out their AI infra to The Hyperscalers. I can't tell if this is supposed to be sarcasm or not :-/ Aren't all the token providers right now over-provisioned? They aren't trying to use up all their capacity, they're selling it to one another.

Apart from SpaceXAI no?

There's still a massive compute crunch, I know the opencode guys had been struggling to get capacity, Claude effectively lowered it's limit till the SpaceX deal, Google is struggling.

https://x.com/thdxr/status/2024539643673211054

https://www.anthropic.com/news/higher-limits-spacex

https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/ai-demand-o...

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#114

Post by s1artibartfast »

pocksuppet wrote: post #42
cmiles8 wrote: post #31

Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes. For example, Amazon just had a challenging bond offering where the market is clearly starting to seriously question the ROI on all this money being pumped into AI buildout. That does not bode well at all for AI-only companies without broader cash flow from other businesses. And when the cash dries up this whole thing comes crashing down like…

IMHO these signals have more to do with the market than AI. They aren't finding AI to be have less ROI than before - they are requiring higher ROI than before, because there is less money remaining to be invested. Managing the total amount of money so that investment bubbles peter out before they get excessively big is supposed to be the central bank's job.

Challening bond offerings and higher yields can be a funtion of supply.

Downgrade of credit worthiness is different. That depends on how leveraged the company is

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#115

Post by thatjoeoverthr »

rf15 wrote: post #91
Reptur wrote: post #62

This site is shady as hell. You try to decline marketing in their pop-up and it hides maybe a 100 providers and expects you to click each one individually.

This shady site is an established business created in 1949.[1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heise_Group

So are all the other shady websites.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#116

Post by platevoltage »

ceejayoz wrote: post #78
llm_nerd wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Campaign? They're friends of the administration, and the US is firmly in the kleptocracy stage now (the last wrungs of democracy are about to be undone this Thursday evening). They'll give a bribe to Trump, they'll offer up 5% of the stock to Chairman Trump as the People's Stock now that the US is basically a bizarre oligarchy form of communism, and Oracle will be declared a state enterprise that cannot lose money. T…

The administration isn't fully immune to public opinion yet.

If you look back to what he has been able to get away with, and still get re-elected, I'd say he is.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#117

Post by someuser54541 »

lelanthran wrote: post #88
cmiles8 wrote: post #31

Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes. For example, Amazon just had a challenging bond offering where the market is clearly starting to seriously question the ROI on all this money being pumped into AI buildout. That does not bode well at all for AI-only companies without broader cash flow from other businesses. And when the cash dries up this whole thing comes crashing down like…

> Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes. It's worse than that - I believe that Oracle is one of the (many) companies right now that, if their AI experimentation fails, will stop the music, and everyone will be running for a chair. Oracle is one of a few foundational components in the circular-investing group of AI companies. If they fail to make their commitments they're the first…

What's the best way to hedge against this, considering many of us have significant savings in the market?

A few puts on SPY dated a year or two out?

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#118

Post by ben_w »

SirFatty wrote: post #36
therobots927 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well it seems like he bought the “AGI is 2 years away” line. As did… pretty much everyone in Silicon Valley.

yeah.. https://ai-2027.com/

I remember one thing that struck me when skim reading that the first time:

it only "works" if the government actively does everything in its power to support the boom. No restrictions on new power sources, on pylons and transformers, on new factories to make power sources and compute, on data centres.

This was never going to be the world we live in.

Still surprised by the admin actively punishing politically incorrect power supplies (renewables) and then starting a stupid war with Iran, but even without that nonsense, we were never going to see the US do a command economy pivot, and even if we had something would've broken like it usually does with noobs (and even most politicians are noobs) trying a command economy pivot.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#120

Post by ceejayoz »

platevoltage wrote: post #116
ceejayoz wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The administration isn't fully immune to public opinion yet.

If you look back to what he has been able to get away with, and still get re-elected, I'd say he is.

Nah, they tried the invulnerable thing. They tried really, really hard to avoid the "chaos in the White House" firings from the first term. Noem wrecked it.
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