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Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things
111–118 of 118 posts
Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things
#112I just don't understand why people are incapable of extrapolating. AI can't do this blah blah, my brother in spaghetti monster, have you seen the curve? ChatGPT launched in November, 2022. Opus in December last year. Do you see where this is going? AI may be a tool and add 50 IQ points to a 100 IQ person today but what happens when its adding 10000 IQ points. The 100 base doesn't quite matter as much does it? What do…
That’s not how iq works.
Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things
#113Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because most systems in nature and society, including technological progress, aren't linear. It's certainly plausible that improvements will continue, but the pace is completely unpredictable. It's also plausible that the training material is polluted and progress will not continue. I'm just saying that predicting the rate of technological progress is not easy, and historically, it's rarely been smooth in the long ru…
There are at least a dozen scaling laws for AI right now. It’s improving on so many different fronts that people don’t seem to comprehend.
We comprehend, but these "scaling laws" have been in effect for less than a decade (and they're more historical observations over a very short period than actual laws), and while some technologies progress exponentially for some amount of time, the complexity of some computational problems grows exponentially forever. For example, if computational resources double every year, it may still be five centuries before some computational problems can become practically computable. It is mathematically proven that no amount of intelligence can compensate for resources, and even if exponential growth could be sustained for a long time, and that's a big if, an exponential curve still grows slowly at the beginning.
For example, suppose AI helps us figure out a way to exploit much more of the sun's energy. Accomplishing that necessary preliminary can, on its own, take many decades, and if we split our efforts among multiple approaches, it may take longer. Intelligence can't break the actual laws of mathematics or of physics. And that's before we consider things like how resources will be allocated when AI tells people that man-made climate change and transgenderism are real.
This generation of AI hasn't even hit its first crisis. Assuming there will be none is like settlers assuming their town will never suffer a major earthquake because they haven't had one in five years.
Of course, improvements in problems that may not grow exponentially also matter a great deal, but there are too many unknowns (look at how many unknowns there are around quantum computing).
Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things
#114I just don't understand why people are incapable of extrapolating. AI can't do this blah blah, my brother in spaghetti monster, have you seen the curve? ChatGPT launched in November, 2022. Opus in December last year. Do you see where this is going? AI may be a tool and add 50 IQ points to a 100 IQ person today but what happens when its adding 10000 IQ points. The 100 base doesn't quite matter as much does it? What do…
The problem with your post is you’re depending on an assumption that all types of intelligence are useful in every situation.
Being embodied will always be a huge advantage over a “country full of geniuses in a datacenter”.
Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things
#115I was earlier of the belief, Oh my god, now nothing is impossible. Ai can market, ai can create video, ai can sell, i can build and make a great product. we will win. I realized all this was quite wrong, AI just helps people who already know become more efficient. It just gives confidence to people who dont know anything by the sycophantic nature of AI. AI is just a tool for smart people to become smarter. Love AI an…
I completely agree. The more experienced you are, the more you get out of AI.
A friend of mine is super smart, but he's not a software developer. He tried to use AI to build software. And it worked well for small projects, but he always reached a point where the AI could no longer fix bugs or add new features.
The problems were often simple. An experienced developer could fix them with a few minutes of manual editing. Sometimes it was just an incorrect > in an XML file, but the AI would get completely stuck.
So IMHO AI works best when you know how to guide it and when to step in yourself.
Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things
#116Earlier quoted context omitted.
This makes sense. Interacting with the world is hard and poses real bottlenecks. I think that resource acquisition is a solvable problem for such a system, robots seem mainly limited by software. I concede that I am too certain about the linearity of it. But like, cmon man, in the limit entropy ensures that everything ends. The world could still get very weird very fast. I think that's what original comment was tryin…
> robots seem mainly limited by software First, I don't think so. Second, some resources would take even robots decades or centuries to collect. Even something as fundamental as energy production takes a lot of time and money to build. The question of where we'll get the energy to run the robots is not a simple one, and it's one of the simplest questions involved. > I think that's what original comment was trying to…
Thank you for posting such balanced and level headed comments. We need more of that on HN.
Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things
#117Normies just don’t understand what all is involved in running and evolving a production system. They think all programmers do is write code. Of course they believe that AI could replace programmers. My in laws smugly asked me what I would be doing for work since AI would take away all the programming jobs and I said its not gonna happen and they laughed in derision.
The less people know the simpler they think things are.
You should make $ bets with them on whether you will still have a job 2 years from now. An easy way to make money and teach them a lesson :)
Re: Give Smart People the Tools to Do Smart Things
#118Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes when the sole purpose is to remove the livelihood of people in an attempt to make short term gains for selfish short term reasons....AI is a weapon when you have corporate stooge lackies who have nothing but animous towards fellow humans who dare to work...and try to live. If AI was beneficial, no one would profitize it....but lbr...you know that...
> If AI was beneficial, no one would profitize it What? How does that follow?
Profit implies...more than it took....ie....you are taking more than giving...thus not a benefit except for profit...which is not a true benefit